On Monday, June 20, U.S. stocks, Treasuries and Chicago commodities markets were all closed for a day due to the June Holiday. The market traded rather lightly, and U.S. stock futures followed the collective moderate movement of European stocks, but the market was still full of fears that the European and American economies would fall into recession, and the dollar fell back.
Ecbbank President Christine Lagarde, attending the European Parliament hearing, reiterated his intention to raise rates by 25 basis points in July, which would be the first since 2011, and said they would raise rates again in September. There is widespread belief that a sharp 50 basis point hike is likely in September.
The ECB, or ahead of its July 20-21 monetary policy meeting, could hammer out new tools to ease the fragmentation of borrowing costs among countries in the eurozone, and could buy the debt of highly indebted countries in case it repeats the European debt crisis of more than a decade ago, people familiar with the matter said.
Central bankers in Europe and the United States warn of the risk of economic stalling. Lagarde said the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is seriously affecting the eurozone economy and that the outlook remains highly uncertain. Former Fed Chairman and current U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, as well as this year's FOMC Voting Committee, Cleveland Fed President Mestre also admitted that U.S. economic growth will slow, the threat of recession is increasing, and "unacceptable" high inflation may be entrenched throughout 2022.
The latest economic data show that the German producer price index PPI soared 33.6% year-on-year in May, the highest since statistics began in 1949. Markets are watching the PMI of the Eurozone, Germany, France, the Uk
U.S. futures and European stocks rose together on Monday, French stocks rose relatively behind, and risk sentiment remained fragile in the tide of interest rate hikes
At the end of the European stock market, the gains of US stock index futures narrowed slightly. Some analysts said the market is worried that Fed Chairman Powell will emphasize the promise of "unconditional" interest rate hikes to fight inflation when he attends the congressional semi-annual hearings on Wednesday and Thursday, which will increase economic uncertainty.
After its worst weekly performance since March, European stocks closed higher in light trading, with some investors taking advantage of the low entry due to attractive valuations.
The Pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose for two consecutive days, closing up 0.96%, bank stocks rose more than 3% to lead the gains, travel and leisure and energy stocks rose positively, raw material prices plunged the underlying resources sector intraday, and builder stocks fell.
German,British,Italian and Western stock indexes both rose about 1 percent, Russia's RTS index rose more than 3 percent, french President Emmanuel Macron's ruling coalition lost an absolute majority in parliament, potentially crippling its economic agenda, and French stocks rose relatively behind.
Upgraded to "buy" by investment bank Jefferies, French automaker Renault rose nearly 10 percent. Property website Rightmove lowered the central bank's expectations for the growth of the UK property market after a series of interest rate hikes, and British property developers fell in the intraday, and generally fell more than 4%.
According to multiple analysts, global economic concerns are on the rise and market volatility will continue for some time with uncertainty unless inflation actually peaks and slows or supply chain issues are resolved. The U.S. economy is almost certain that it will be a recession in the near future, and it is necessary to pay attention to the duration of the period and the severity of the impact on corporate earnings. But JPMorgan chase said that as inflation slows, stock market pressure will ease in the second half of the year.
Tightening policy expectations have caused European debt to fall, yields to rise, and the pre-intentioned crisis tool/German bond spread continues to narrow
At a time when the ECB president on Monday reiterated its commitment to tightening policy and eccentric governing council Martins Kazaks said on the same day that it should be prepared to deal with market turmoil in the event of an exit from negative interest rate policies, the prices of bonds in major European countries fell and yields rose.
The 10-year German bond yield rose more than 8 basis points in the end of European stocks, trading at 1.74%, close to an eight-year high. The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 11 basis points to break 2.61 per cent and also hit an eight-year high. The 10-year Yield rose nearly 12 basis points, narrowing the spread with German bonds.
Mann, the Bank of England's monetary policy official, said it was necessary to speed up interest rate hikes to stop the depreciation of the pound from pushing up inflation, with Long-term British bonds leading the decline, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising 14 basis points to 2.81%, the highest since November 2014.
International oil prices stopped falling and turned higher, and Brent fell more than 1% and then rose more than 1%, rising below $114 again
International oil prices stopped falling and turned up. Brent August crude futures closed up $1.01, or 0.89 percent, at $114.13 a barrel.
The U.S. oil WTI July contract fell $0.84 or 0.8% earlier in the day, once lost $109, European stocks stopped falling and rose above $110 in the end of the session, August futures fell more than $1 or fell 1.1%, the daily low lost $107, and then turned slightly higher and returned to above $108. International Brent fell $1.56 or 1.4% at one point, lost $112 at a daily low, rose below $114 after turning higher, and rose as high as $1.36 or 1.2% during the day.
The analysis pointed out that oil prices are oscillating in the collision of factors such as slowing global economic growth and weak fuel demand and tight supply side. Warren Patterson, head of commodities research at ING, said it was clear that macro factors were driving oil prices, and fundamentals still had a role to support oil prices. ANZ said the U.S. strategic crude reserves could fall to a 40-year low in October.
Investors are concerned about Russian gas supply, with the Netherlands resuming coal generation, European benchmark TTF Dutch gas futures edged up more than 1 percent on Monday, ICE UK gas futures closed down 0.47 percent and Germany electricity prices fell 5.46 percent in the european session for the coming month.
The dollar is lower but not far from a twenty-year high, with the yen losing another 135, the Chilean peso hitting a new low and the ruble at a seven-year high
The basket of dollar index DXY, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, moved lower, dipping its deepest 0.4 percent in the European session and still holding above the 104 mark and near a new two-decade high of hitting 105.79 on Wednesday.
The eurusd rose 0.3% and rose above 1.05, the gbpusdance rose nearly 0.2% and stood above 1.22, and the ruble rose 1.7% against the dollar at one point to a seven-year high since July 2015. As Rem copper fell below $9,000/mt, the Chilean peso fell to an all-time low against the dollar. The yen, which has stuck to its accommodative policies, fell below 135 against the dollar, approaching the twenty-four-year low of $135.60 set last Wednesday.
The mainstream cryptocurrency, which has recently shown a positive correlation with the stock market, has generally risen, with the leading bitcoin returning above $20,000, up 7% at one point, and falling to the $1.76 line at the weekend, approaching the lowest recorded in December 2020 set last week. Ethereum, the second largest by market capitalization, rose 9% at one point and rose below $1100. But Bitcoin plunged 30 percent last week, 70 percent below its November peak, and the price has slashed so far this year.
Spot gold could not return to $1840, the London metal fell in the intraday but turned up in the end, and the black system was dragged down by the demand outlook
The dollar is not far from a two-decade high and European bond yields are collectively higher to weigh on gold prices, with spot gold falling 0.3% in the day, and the daily low lost $1835, unable to return to the $1840 round mark.
London base metals fell intraday as rising interest rates sparked concerns about a potential global recession and weak demand for industrial metals, which generally closed higher on a weaker dollar. Lun Copper stopped falling for seven days, but fell below the $9,000 round mark for two consecutive days, hitting a new nine-month low of $8,830 on Monday. Both Lensey and Lennell nickel fell more than 1% intraday, and Lennnell closed higher, but Lensi closed with a 1% decline.
The black series is also plagued by the demand side. Singapore's main iron ore contract fell more than 7%, erasing all gains this year, falling for eight consecutive days and falling about 20% during the period. The inner futures night market continued the daily decline, coking coal fell 7% after closing down about 6.3% of the worst performance, coke also fell more than 4% after falling nearly 6%, thread and hot coil fell less than 1%, iron ore fell more than 3%. During the Japanese session, iron ore fell to a halt, coke fell more than 11%, coking coal fell more than 10%, hot coil fell more than 6%, and rebar fell nearly 6%.
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