The author | Zhou Zhiyu
Editor| Zhang Xiaoling
In the past, companies with a market value of A-share trillions of dollars always came to the minds of investors, such as Guizhou Moutai, PetroChina or those bank stocks.
Until May 31 last year, the market value of the Ningde era exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time; A year later, BYD also joined the sequence on June 10.
Upstarts from the new energy industry are subverting the old pattern at a speed that exceeds expectations. The speed of light to make rich, capital boom, scale struggle, these stories that have been staged in real estate, the Internet, seem to be reproducing in this hot industry.
Ren Zeping, who jokingly called the transformation of "emotional bloggers", also shouted in recent days, "Not investing in new energy at the moment is like not buying a house 20 years ago."
From a global perspective, an era of new energy vehicles has arrived unstoppable.
In this era that Musk took the lead in opening, Tesla's market value has already exceeded one trillion or even nearly nine trillion, and the domestic "Ning Wang" and "Di Wang" have also opened up the imagination space of the market with trillions. Where will they take this industry?
Hegemony
As the star of China's new energy industry chain, the competition between "Di Wang" and "Ning Wang" has reached a white-hot stage.
On June 10, BYD's market value soared to trillion yuan for the first time, becoming another new energy company with a market value of more than one trillion yuan after the Ningde era. Although it rebounded to 975.233 billion on June 15, it is not much different from the 1.09 trillion yuan in the Ningde era. Next, the competition between two trillion companies for the "Shenzhen market brother" will continue to be staged.
After BYD broke through the trillion yuan, CITIC Securities, which investors jokingly called the "bull stock counter-index", shouted that by 2023, BYD's target price is 481.1 yuan per share, and the market value is 1.4 trillion yuan. On the other hand, the "King of Ning", who had given a target price of 754 yuan, seemed to have been beaten into the cold palace.
A few days ago, a Tesla-related news detonated market sentiment. On June 8, Lian Yubo, executive vice president of BYD Group, revealed that BYD will provide battery products for Tesla, which is also the first time that BYD has acknowledged this matter.
Prior to this, the leading global power battery manufacturers such as CATL, Panasonic and LG New Energy were first recognized by the market after receiving large orders from Tesla, and then had today's market position.
Tesla is currently the world's largest production and delivery of electric vehicle manufacturers, after the realization of localization, low-cost production is the main boost to Tesla's sales surge, of which about 40% of the battery cost is obviously crucial. Bind Tesla and become the appeal of a number of battery suppliers.
In June last year, CATL reached a cooperation with Tesla to supply Tesla with low-cost lithium iron phosphate batteries; With the hot sales of Tesla, the installed capacity of the Ningde era has climbed all the way.
According to the 2021 annual report, last year's sales to Tesla in catheter times were 13.04 billion yuan, accounting for 10% of its total sales.
And now, "Di Wang" will also become a Tesla supplier, so that "Ning Wang" can't sit still.
Compared with the Ningde era, BYD can provide relatively cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries; In addition, in the case of supply chain obstruction in the past few months, the stable supply of BYD's Fordy batteries has helped BYD's sales soar, and the market is obvious to all.
In the first five months of this year, the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 235.2% year-on-year, pressing ternary batteries, accounting for 60% of power battery production. Lithium iron phosphate is BYD's strength.
From the overall market share point of view, the gap between BYD and Ningde era is also narrowing. In the first five months of this year, BYD's installed power battery capacity accounted for 22.58%, up 6.38 percentage points from the market share of 16.2% at the end of last year. The NINGDE era fell to 47.05% from 52.1% at the end of last year.
If the follow-up supply goes well, BYD will become Tesla's second battery supplier in the Chinese market and the fourth in the world. The proportion of LG Chem, CATL and Panasonic's orders from Tesla will also be diverted accordingly.
More importantly, with the support of Tesla's brand, the cooperation between potential customers including Toyota, Daimler and other new car-making forces and BYD is also expected to advance. In the current situation that car companies are looking for two and three supplies, BYD is becoming the catfish that stirs up the market.
Some analysts also said that as Tesla's global share of lithium iron carbonate batteries rapidly expanded to more than 50%, the entire market is still rapidly rotating. In the second round of power battery pattern restructuring after 2025, Chinese companies such as NINGDE Times and BYD will fully benefit.
According to the planning of various battery manufacturers, by 2025, the production capacity of THE NINGDE era will reach 670GWh, BYD and Hive Energy can also reach 600GWh, and the production capacity target of China New Air is 500GWh.
The power battery's battle for supremacy has just begun.
upsurge
The emergence of two trillion-level companies a year is a microcosm of the new energy industry's global pursuit. The era of new energy has arrived.
Listed on June 11, 2018, ningde times began to rise after hovering around 70 yuan for more than a year, reaching a maximum of 692 yuan per share at the beginning of this year, an increase of nearly 9 times; BYD's stock price has increased from about 50 yuan / share at the beginning of 2020 to a maximum of 358.86 yuan / share, an increase of 6 times.
The Ningde era and BYD in the "trillion club" ranked 6 and 9th in the A stock market value list, preceded by representatives of traditional economies such as Guizhou Moutai, China Mobile, PetroChina and banks.
Outside the era of BYD and Ningde, Ganfeng Lithium, Enjie shares and other big bull stocks that are ten times in three years have also emerged with this round of industrial upward cycle.
Behind the boom is investors' expectations that Chinese companies can continue to lead the world in the new energy era. Last year, China's power battery production capacity accounted for 70% of the global market, and new energy passenger cars accounted for more than half of the global market share.
Musk, who has turned himself into a Chinese gigafactory, tweeted at the end of May, saying that "few people seem to realize that China is a world leader in renewable energy generation and electric vehicles." No matter how you look at China, this is true. ”
According to Credit Suisse's forecast, by 2030, electric vehicles, including pure electric and hybrid, will account for 45% of global annual vehicle sales, an increase of 9 times from 4.5% in 2020. In particular, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in countries or regions such as the European Union and China will exceed 60%.
Taking the global sales of more than 82 million vehicles last year, this means that by 2030, the annual sales of electric models will reach at least 36.9 million. Based on the global sales of 6.5 million new energy vehicles last year, the compound annual growth rate exceeded 21%.
This is one of the few industries with a large enough market capacity and stable growth prospects at the moment.
But the story of electrification is just the beginning. With electrification as the cornerstone, the "next generation of intelligent terminals" after this mobile phone has attracted various capitals and industry leaders to enter the game. Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Apple, Google and other technology giants have also cut into "car building" in different models. Last year, Xiaomi officially announced the construction of the car, and Chairman Lei Jun bluntly said that this was his "last major entrepreneurial project in his life".
As BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu said, the first half of new energy vehicles is electrified, and the second half is intelligent.
In addition to the story of scale, China's new energy automobile industry still needs to exert more efforts in technology and products to achieve global market leadership. The "King of Ning" and the "King of Di" still have a long way to go.
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