With the continuous progress and maturity of the development of the agricultural and industrial era, the new tertiary industry has also begun to rise widely, and ushered in rapid development, and now the proportion of a country's tertiary industry is to a large extent a direct embodiment of the country's development level.
It can be said that the tertiary industry is the result of the transition after the maturity of industry and agriculture, and the more developed the early industry and agriculture, the more developed the tertiary industry will be.
However, Brazil is an exception, the tertiary industry has obviously accounted for 75%, but the country is not showing a thriving scene, but a debt crisis and social contradictions, and the economic development situation has been seriously challenged.
The root cause behind the series of development problems facing Brazil is its premature loss of the real economy.
In other words, before you learn to walk, you have been trying to run, and you have fallen, and you have fallen into a pit without a real economy.
01, Brazil, because the real economy is amazing
With a total territory of 8.51 million square kilometers, Brazil is one of the largest countries in South America, accounting for almost half of the entire South America.
Most of Brazil is located in a tropical climate, the four seasons are evenly distributed, the temperature is stable and moderate, the vast land and good climatic conditions make Brazil have a huge production advantage, it is no exaggeration to call it the "big brother of South America".
In addition to its natural geographical location and climatic advantages, Brazil also has extremely rich mineral resources and forest resources.
Some valuable metal resources, such as niobium, titanium, manganese, lead and other reserves are among the best, of which niobium accounts for about 90% of the world's proven reserves.
As we all know, the Middle East is rich in oil reserves, but Brazil's oil reserves in South America are just as high, about 28.47 billion barrels, making it the second largest oil resource country in South America after Venezuela.
In addition, the coverage rate of Forest Resources in Brazil is 62%, and the benefits of forest resources are self-evident, which not only purifies the air, optimizes the living environment, but also provides raw materials for production.
A country with rich mineral resources, abundant oil and gas resources, and extremely high forest coverage can be described as a golden spoon and a proud son of heaven.
Having such a wealth of natural resources and development advantages is not the most enviable, and Brazil has managed to avoid two world wars because of its far south America.
The domestic environment is very stable, not affected by the war in the slightest, and the economy continues to develop.
Brazil first began to develop industry at the end of the 18th century, although it was later than other Western countries, but it was relatively early in South America.
By the beginning of the 20th century (during the First World War), there were more than 100,000 industrial enterprises in Brazil, and the total industrial output increased exponentially.
At the same time, most countries in Asia are still in an agrarian society, and Brazil has not only entered the process of industrialization, but also made considerable achievements.
In World War II, when the whole world experienced the Great Depression, Brazil did not shrink back, and industrial output grew at a rate of 8% per year.
By the middle and late 20th century, Brazil's industrial system was relatively perfect, and all industrial sectors were readily available.
After the end of the Second World War, Brazil once again seized the rare opportunity for development and actively promoted a variety of foreign policies and foreign investment.
It not only absorbs many of the excess resources of the United States, but also has trade relations with the United States.
Soon, Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP) was among the best in Latin America, exceeding $200 billion, and from 1948 to 1979, the gross domestic product grew at an average rate of 7.2%, successfully creating the "Brazilian miracle" that shocked the world.
02, the bad impact of deindustrialization
With the rapid development of the Brazilian economy, an invisible economic crisis has quietly arrived, that is, Brazil does not have high-end industrial technology, so it is unable to produce high-value-added products, let alone develop high-tech.
Therefore, Brazil has frantically introduced foreign capital and built a large number of factories using the advanced production equipment brought by foreign investment.
Subsequently, the state stimulated purchasing power by issuing large subsidies, but the result was that inflation was severe and the gap between the rich and the poor widened.
In particular, after the significant increase in international credit interest rates, Brazil's external debt has snowballed, and huge debt has become the biggest stumbling block to Brazil's economic growth.
Slowly, Brazil's foreign exchange was depleted, brazil's economic development showed negative growth, and Brazil had to immediately stop repaying its debts.
In the face of the huge scale of debt, Brazil is completely unable to repay, while the social problems and conflicts caused by the introduction of foreign investment have intensified.
Desperate, Brazil had to choose to open its domestic market to the public to reduce pressure.
After the door of the domestic market was opened, many industrial enterprises in Brazil were generally less productive, more costly, and less competitive than other foreign-funded enterprises.
Brazil has chosen the path of deindustrialization to solve this problem most effectively and expeditiously.
It is precisely because of this wrong decision that Brazil's economic development has led to a situation of no return, and the abandonment of the real economy has caused Brazil to fall into the "development trap".
Brazil was even more wrong to actively promote the development of the tertiary industry, especially the development of the consumer economy, and to implement a drastic welfare policy in the country, with welfare spending accounting for 20% of the country's GDP, but less than 2% of the country's most important infrastructure expenditure.
We all know that infrastructure construction is the foundation and guarantee of a country's development, and if infrastructure is ignored, it is to build a high-rise building that has not laid a solid foundation, and there will be a risk of collapse at any time.
Brazil's shift of development goals to a consumer-oriented economy in the tertiary sector is actually helpless. Until the mid-1970s, Brazil's economic structure was dominated by agriculture, with little improvement in industry and services. But from the mid-to-late 1970s, the Brazilian economy entered a new period of high-speed growth. At that time, not only did the gap between the rich and the poor gradually increase in Brazil, but also the consumption power was seriously insufficient.
The people have no money in their hands, but economic development needs money, so Brazil has to borrow foreign debt to promote economic development, so Brazil fell into a vicious circle of borrowing foreign debt to repay loans.
On a national scale, the only way to drive economic growth was the export of resources, when Brazil relied entirely on exports of oil, minerals and other commodities to sustain national revenues.
However, relying solely on resource exports without strong cutting-edge science and technology cannot achieve the long-term and stable development of a country.
Industrialization is the core of modernization, and the real sadness of Brazil is not in deindustrialization, but in premature deindustrialization.
After 1980, Brazil's tertiary industry developed rapidly, even surpassing many developed countries.
However, Brazil has a completely different situation from the developed countries, which naturally complete the deindustrialization process on the basis of completing the industrialization process and adapting to the needs of historical development.
However, Brazil has not yet fully industrialized, which is also the cause of economic stagnation and the suffering of people's living standards.
Due to Brazil's deindustrialization policy, almost all of the domestic employed population is concentrated in the tertiary industry, resulting in Brazil's backward industry and the inability to absorb a large number of employed people.
The number of poor people in Brazil exceeds 50 million, accounting for about 30% of the total population of Brazil, and in some cases, 50% in individual regions.
The service industry in the tertiary industry was originally based on industrial development, and due to the lack of high-end manufacturing in Brazil, the development of its service industry is very limited, and it can only stay at a relatively low level.
03. Can Brazil regain its former glory?
The real economy centered on industry is the foundation of the national economy, the cornerstone of the national economy, and one of the important basic strengths that can compete with all countries in the world in the increasingly fierce international competition.
Only by developing the real economy can we make a smooth transition from the country to modernization, and the real economy can also promote the national economy to the high-end, and can we effectively prevent the detachment from the real to the virtual.
Although the development process of the real economy is slow, the so-called slow work and the development of the real economy are also a process of continuous improvement.
No country can eat a fat man in one bite, let alone rush to develop big things, prematurely abandon the real economy to develop the virtual economy, and the financial services industry in the air is equivalent to putting the cart before the horse.
Brazil is a good example, Brazil once industrialized the real economy, to create a "Brazilian miracle" that shocked the world.
However, in the process of future development, they neglected their own national conditions, went astray, and fell into the quagmire caused by deindustrialization and could not extricate themselves.
Since entering the 21st century, Brazil has made continuous efforts to adjust the country's economic structure and achieved remarkable results.
In 2008, it was listed as a "Company Investment" by the Standard & Poor rating agency, which means that Brazil will no longer have a risk of delinquency.
The move also directly contributed to the massive inflow of foreign investment from Brazil, attracting $153 billion in 2011 alone, the highest in Latin America.
Brazil's agricultural development hit a 21st-century high for the first time in 2015-2016, with an increase of 13.4%, but industrial development increased slightly by only 0.9%, and the share of the service sector in the country's overall economy was 73.3%, unchanged from before.
Various data show that there is a clear imbalance in Brazil's economic growth, and the growth of the Brazilian economy is still mainly driven by the external market, which is more obviously affected by the external environment, indirectly reflecting the lack of productivity in Brazil itself.
The main factors affecting Brazil's growth are both internal and external, and the external global economic environment cannot be changed by Brazil.
Only by adjusting the economic structure, upgrading and developing industries, and changing the domestic economic environment can Brazil enhance its global competitiveness.
Brazil is now aware of the problem and is urgently improving its infrastructure and manufacturing sectors to find ways to address the people's livelihood development challenges facing the country.
Despite some of the achievements that Brazil has made so far, it may take a long and long time to fully resolve all of the country's development problems and return to the glorious miracles of its past.
Affected by the epidemic, there are many problems in the economic development situation of Brazil, the largest country in South America, with increased inflationary pressures, high domestic unemployment, and the inability to improve foreign investment and consumption capacity.
Brazil's inflation rate in 2020 is 4.52%, higher than the country's original target of 4%, and in 2020, the unemployment rate will reach 13.5%, the number of unemployed will reach 13.7 million, and the average number of unemployed people in Brazil during the epidemic period will be 377.
However, the epidemic prevention and control measures in Brazil are still timely, and the signs of recovery in various industries in 2021 are obvious.
Brazil's GDP in the first quarter of 2021 was 253 million yuan, an increase of 1.2% over the epidemic period, and basically rebounded to the pre-outbreak level.