"Military Sub-Plane" by Ivan the Great
According to Pakistani media reports, recently, a pakistani civilian think tank called "Intel Consortium" (Intelligence Alliance) proposed to the Pakistan Air Force their "Air Force Building Plan for the 21st Century and 20s", which was synchronized on its own social media and briefly introduced the plan.
According to the think tank, it is recommended that the Pakistan Air Force continue to expand the procurement scale of the existing J-10CE fighters in the air force construction plan for the 2020s, and purchase more than 90 J-10CE fighters from 5 squadrons. In addition, it is necessary to purchase at least 2 squadrons of Chinese-made new generation stealth fighters, J-20 and J-35. In addition, in the construction of equipment, the Pakistani army must also adhere to the principle of "walking on two legs", not only purely purchased, but also continue to manufacture more than 170 FC-1 Block III/IV fighters (obviously the latter is a paper model), and even mentioned the stealth fighter project that does not even have a shadow at present, but may be jointly launched with Turkey.
Why was the Pakistani Air Force so designed?
As a private think tank, the Intel Consortium proposes that nothing is inherently reprehensible, and it is normal to imagine the envisioned Pakistan Air Force as incomparably powerful.
After all, from the current situation of the Pakistan Air Force: although it has been quite lean for a long time, the combat effectiveness is still stronger than that of the Indian Air Force, but with pakistan's relationship with the United States is not as good as in the past, the combat effectiveness of the Pakistani Air Force is actually gradually declining.
The Falcon Squadron had F-16s in conformal fuel tanks, but unfortunately the number was too small
Originally the backbone of the air superiority fighter F-16 series fighter, more than 50 F-16A/B Block 10-15 MLU/ADF aircraft have been too old, generally more than thirty years, and have lost the possibility of further upgrades, the overall combat effectiveness remains at the level of the third generation fighter mid-level. The real combat effectiveness is the 18 F-16C/D Block52 of the 5th Falcon Squadron;
There are still more than a hundred Mirage III and Mirage V aircraft as fighter-bombers, but the performance of these aircraft is even more backward and it is difficult to meet the needs of combat. The Pakistan Air Force itself only intends to eliminate all of the above aircraft in another ten years;
As a second-generation fighter made in China, there are more than 60 J-7P/PG fighters. Among them, there are 25 more advanced and relatively strong air combat capabilities of the J-7PG type, which can be served for another seven or eight years, but because they do not have the ability to intercept beyond the visual range, they are essentially a backward model;
At present, the Pakistani army is relatively cutting-edge aircraft, one is the FC-1 series jointly manufactured by AVIC and the Pakistan Aviation Industry Consortium, and the total number of BlockI/II/III models is about 150, including a squadron of BlockIIB two-seaters. The performance of this type of aircraft is good, but because it is a light fighter, the comprehensive combat effectiveness is not as good as the F-16 series; the second is the latest J-10CE fighter that the Pakistan Air Force just got its hands on this year.
Looking at the main combat equipment of the Pakistan Air Force, 70 F-16 series fighters, more than 120 Mirage series fighter-bombers, and more than 60 F-7P/PG fighters are all equipment that has begun to lag behind. Among them, more than 180 aircraft may be eliminated at any time, only more than 150 FC-1 series and 18 (up to 36 in the future) J-10CE is relatively advanced equipment.
If the Pakistan Air Force does not quickly update its equipment and updates the mission gaps that have occurred after the fleet is eliminated, its fleet size will be further reduced by 2025, some scheduled tactical tasks cannot be performed, and the overall combat effectiveness will continue to decline.
In 2020, the indo-Pakistani air force combat aircraft comparison list, yellow is the current service model, red is the retired aircraft.
In contrast, the Indian Air Force's combat effectiveness continues to rise. Compared with the Pakistan Air Force, which has begun to enter the end of its life cycle and is facing the problem of equipment replacement, the overall situation of the Indian Air Force's fleet is relatively healthy.
At present, the Indian Air Force has really entered the end of its life, only more than 40 Mirage-2000, more than 50 MiG-29 9.12a and more than 120 MiG-21Bison, more than 270 Su-30MKI and 36 Rafale fighters and more than 30 LCA fighters are relatively cutting-edge models.
In addition, the Indian Air Force has certain advantages over the Pakistan Air Force in terms of self-production and outsourcing of equipment. For example, the Rafale fighter, the Indian Air Force has been prepared to purchase another 36 after purchasing 36, in addition to the purchase of F-16I Block 70, EF-2000 or MiG-35 fighter jets. If the IAF's military development plan can be carried out on time, by the 2030s, the number of advanced third-,-and-a-half- and third-generation aircraft in the Indian Air Force will swell to as many as four or five hundred.
It is therefore not surprising that the Intel Consortium think tank has made the PFP's military planning for the 2020s large and complete on the basis of this consideration:
A total of 90 J-10CE were purchased, that is, 54 more needed to be purchased on the basis of the existing procurement quantity. The procurement of 170 FC-1 Block III/IV requires the purchase of more than 150 on top of the existing ones, apparently to expand the size of the Pakistan Air Force's advanced fighter fleet;
The purchase of J-20 or other types of stealth fighters, this is to approach the Indian Air Force as much as possible in quantity, and strive to form a generation gap in the quality of fighters relative to the Indian Air Force, and further expand the advantages of the Pakistan Air Force over the Indian Air Force;
Full-size model of the Turkish TF-X at the Singapore Airshow
Finally, a special mention was made of the TPX project jointly undertaken by Pakistan and Turkey, which is still in the state of pie painting. While the project may not be making decent progress until 2030, mentioning it is clearly a need for political correctness. All in all, it is to find ways to achieve a comprehensive catch-up with the Indian Air Force.
How to view Pakistan's "grand ambitions"
Although the Intel Consortium thinks very well, "Soldier Assault" says it well, from "think" to "get", there is a word in the middle called "do". Obviously, according to the think tank's idea, the Pakistan Air Force really wants to get so many aircraft, at least it is more difficult to "do" the link.
Let's calculate the account, even if the purchase price of the aircraft: there was news that the foreign trade price of the J-10CE fighter jet, China Aviation Technology gave 45 million US dollars, excluding supporting weapons and equipment; FC-1 BlockIII is much cheaper, it is said that it is only more than 30 million US dollars; and the price of the J-20 fighter is different, but Ivan the Great believes that if it is a takeaway, it will not be less than 100 million US dollars.
Just to achieve the size of the plane procurement that this think tank wants, it will require a reserve of $11.1 billion to maintain the operating costs of the fleet every year, more than 300 FC-1 fighters, 90 J-10CE and more than 30 J-20 fighters, as well as Pakistan's F-16 fighter jets that may continue to operate, at least not less than $1.5 billion.
This means that throughout the 2020s, the Pakistan Air Force will allocate about US$1 billion per year in equipment procurement costs, and also allocate US$1.5 billion in equipment maintenance costs, not counting aviation weapons, spare parts, daily combat readiness, and not counting the purchase of other equipment of the Air Force (such as anti-aircraft missiles). This is obviously an unattainable budget for the Pakistani army, which will spend only $8.8 billion and equipment procurement costs of only $2.5 billion in 2021.
Geographical location of Pakistan and India (Source: Map Emperor)
Of course, from a strategic point of view, with the increasingly serious co-optation of Western countries to India, and India's own comprehensive strength is further rising, it is also necessary for us to strengthen Pakistan's equipment and military assistance in order to achieve a basic balance between the military strength of India and Pakistan. However, in terms of equipment for military trade and military assistance, at the very least, it is necessary to pay attention to cost-effectiveness and strive to unify economic and strategic returns.
From this perspective, Pakistani think tanks believe that they will be equipped with two squadrons of J-20 fighters in the 2030s, equipped with 90 J-10CE, equipped with 300 FC-1 series, and maintain more than 60 F-16 fleets as a second-line force. Ivan the Great believes that the plan is well-intentioned, ambitious enough, but unrealistic. For the Pakistan Air Force, the overall equipment construction goal in the future should still be based on the mission waiting, and it is more reliable to maintain a small but sufficiently lean air force.
At the equipment level, Ivan the Great believes that after the Mirage series as a fighter-bomber and the J-7P/PG series as an interceptor were all retired from service. For the Pakistan Air Force, the best option is to replace it with some cheap and decent fighter-bombers, and perhaps the J-7A model is a good choice.
Of course, we said earlier that the J-7A may not be suitable for Pakistan, but now for Pakistan, there seems to be no better choice. To achieve the mission generation, then the J-7A is the best option, we can choose a part of the fleet is in good condition, the younger J-7A to implement technical improvements and transfer to Pakistan.
In the existing third-generation and third-generation and semi-fighter fleets of the Pakistani army, in addition to continuing to expand the size of the Pakistani army's J-10CE fighter fleet, it can assist the Pakistani side to independently extend the life of the F-16 fighter, and even modify the technology. For example, replacing the original avionics equipment with a three-generation and a half-generation avionics system, supporting PL-15E and PL-10E air-to-air missiles, etc., are all things that can be considered, which is always cheaper than purchasing new aircraft from China.
As for the FC-1 series fighters, whether the Pakistan Air Force has to equip 300 fighters is a question worthy of a question mark. After all, on the basis of more than 70 J-10CE and 30 to 40 improved F-16s, the Pakistani army already has more than 100 advanced third-generation and half-generation fighters, whether it is necessary to catch up with the Indian Air Force in the size of the fleet, Ivan the Great believes that it is not necessary.
After all, for the Pakistan Air Force, the biggest help is nothing else, but the Chinese Air Force in the western theater. As long as the Presence of the Chinese Air Force in the west is strong enough, the Indian Air Force will not be able to divide too much force and face the direction of Pakistan. As long as the Chinese Air Force's ISR/ELINT (Situational Awareness/Electronic Intelligence Information Gathering) capabilities are strong enough, this in itself is a good enough force multiplier for the Pakistan Air Force, similar to the US ARMY ISR/ELINT fleet currently circling over Poland.
Therefore, from this point of view, the future Pakistan Air Force, a means to make up for the lack of its fleet size, is to strengthen the strategic connection with the Chinese Air Force on the basis of rapid Equipment Neutralization, and the generalization of communication systems, data link systems, and equipment logistics systems must be done quickly. In this way, the wartime Pakistan Air Force was able to achieve further battlefield posture integration and joint operations with the Chinese Air Force, and gained a greater advantage in the confrontation with the Indian Air Force.