Lookout | The aftermath of the UK's coexistence with COVID-19

The coronavirus mutation is likely to run counter to people's wishes

At present, many hospital beds are tight, a large number of medical staff are absent due to illness, and a serious shortage of labor is triggering a storm

Hospitals, schools and businesses will find that one in ten people is sick and it is difficult to function properly

"We never tell people that they need to learn to live with HIV, tuberculosis or malaria."

Strong testing, quarantine policies, and legislation on ventilation in schools and workplaces are pragmatic steps that can slow the spread of COVID-19

Wen | Guo Shuang, a reporter for the news weekly "Lookout."

In line with the UK government's announced "Coexistence with COVID-19" scheme, the country has lifted almost all COVID-19 restrictions and removed entry restrictions in response to the pandemic, shifting "government prevention and control to personal responsibility".

However, whether from the real risks to public health, the future challenges posed by the continued mutation of the virus, the enormous pressures on the healthcare system, or the multiple disruptions to social life, the UK is suffering the after-effects of "coexistence with the virus through infection" on multiple levels.

Unreliable assumptions

The Uk Government announced the "Coexistence with COVID-19" scheme in February this year, which fully lifts all epidemic prevention and control restrictions in the legal sense and will no longer provide free COVID-19 testing for most people from April 1. James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and professor of structural biology at the University of Oxford, points out that this is actually "coexistence with the virus by contracting the virus."

This policy shift is based on the assumption that all future variants will be mild.

But several experts point out that the trend of virus evolution is not necessarily becoming more and more "moderate". For example, Simon Clark, an infectious disease expert at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency a few days ago that the view that the new crown mutation virus will "become more and more moderate" is nonsense, and the virus mutation is likely to run counter to people's wishes.

The UK Government's Emergency Scientific Advisory Group noted that there is still considerable uncertainty about the pandemic and that the high prevalence of COVID-19 around the world offers more opportunities for the virus to mutate and faces a higher risk of the emergence of new variants. The panel stressed that "there is no reason to assume that all future variant strains will be mild."

Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Alliance for Innovation in Epidemic Preparedness, warns that as long as the virus has a high rate of transmission and as long as unprotected groups exist, an environment is likely to mutate the virus. Viruses are constantly evolving, and unpredictable viruses have the potential to cause another pandemic at any time.

After the British government announced the "coexistence with the new crown" plan, more than 2,000 British scientific figures said in a joint open letter that this move will definitely increase the spread of the new crown virus.

Multiple figures show that the outbreak in the UK has continued to worsen since March, with infection levels rising to an all-time high.

Estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that after the release of the "Coexistence with COVID-19" plan for some time, the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK has approached 5 million in a single week for two consecutive weeks, continuing to be at the highest level on record, with an average of 1 in 13 people infected with the new crown virus in most parts of the country. According to the epidemic data released by the British government, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the country has exceeded 21 million.

Dr David Strand, a British doctor who has been fighting the frontline of the fight against the epidemic for a long time, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that people are taking the risk that the new crown patient is around every second, and that the United Kingdom's "coexistence with the new crown" will "put you or your loved ones at risk".

On March 27, 2022, in London, England, an elderly man wearing a mask took a bus photo by Li Ying/This magazine

Multiple sequelae

At present, the "coexistence with the new crown" plan is facing multiple difficulties in the prevention and control of the epidemic in the UNITED Kingdom.

First, the spread of mutated strains accelerates.

Data analysis shows that the Aomi Kejung subtype strain BA.2 has now become the main epidemic strain in the UK. The UK Health Security Agency has also reported cases of recombinant strain infection, such as the Aomi Kerong subtype strain BA.1 and ba.2 recombinant XE strain. The agency noted that when a person is infected with two or more mutant strains at the same time, the genetic material of these strains is mixed in the patient, and a recombinant strain may appear.

The second is the huge impact on the medical system.

The UK's National Health Service (NHS) said that the epidemic has put significant pressure on the country's public health system, which has been going on for a long time, and many hospital beds are currently tight, and a large number of medical staff are absent from work due to illness and a serious shortage of labor is triggering a storm. In some of London's tube stations, the slogan "Who cares about the NHS" appears frequently.

There are media reports that last week alone, 20 emergency departments in england had to be "triaged" due to overcrowding, and more than a quarter of ambulances had to wait more than 30 minutes to hand over patients.

Altman, a professor at Imperial College London, pointed out that in view of the current high level of new crown infection and the high sick leave rate of medical staff, the British medical system is in a difficult state of operation, whether it is for the care of the current new crown cases or for cleaning up the backlog of the previous two years.

Third, it has seriously affected social life.

Professor Altman pointed out that the change in the UK's anti-epidemic policy tells people that "the pandemic is over", but the new crown virus will lead to repeated infections, whether it is hospitals or schools and businesses will find that there is always a tenth of people who are sick and it is difficult to function properly.

British media recently quoted a survey data to report that a quarter of British companies said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is one of the main reasons for the shortage of employees in enterprises. Due to the shortage of employees caused by the NEW CROWN pandemic, many airlines have been forced to cancel some flights. On 11 May alone, British Airways cancelled 64 domestic and international flights to and from London Heathrow. Aviation industry insiders warn that the situation could continue into this summer.

There are also studies showing that about one in five COVID-19 hospitalized patients still can't work after 5 months, and the number of people who don't have a job or are looking for a job due to long-term poor health has increased by 200,000.

Fourth, the pressure on vulnerable groups is greater.

Since 1 April, the UK government has stopped providing free COVID-19 testing for the majority of the population. Free testing for symptomatic people is for hospitalized patients only; free asymptomatic COVID-19 testing is only available to people in high-risk settings.

Christine Pagle, a professor at University College London, said that as the cost of living continues to increase, millions of people will not be able to afford to self-test when they have COVID-19 symptoms. Professor David Sridal of the University of Edinburgh said there was "very much concern" that the government's elimination of free testing could lead to a large number of people abandoning testing.

Policy should not diverge from science

Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds School of Medicine in the United Kingdom, commented on May 1 that the government's launch of the "Coexistence with COVID-19" plan and the elimination of all prevention and control measures are tantamount to ignoring the spread of the new crown virus. Behind this is the fact that in the UNITED KINGDOM and some other countries and regions around the world, there are some people trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic.

"European politicians and scientists are parting ways in the fight against COVID-19... The links between science, data and policy are becoming far-fetched. Altman noted that "'coexistence with COVID-19' is like the PR jargon of the Policy Office, which is incompatible with modern medicine." We never tell people that they need to learn to live with HIV, tuberculosis or malaria. ”

Jenny Harris, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said: "The latest findings remind us once again that the pandemic is not over, that infection rates are so high and that many of us are still at real risk of contracting COVID-19. Many experts warn that "coexistence with covid-19" and the removal of prevention and control measures will put vulnerable people at greater risk and will undermine previous anti-epidemic efforts.

Speaking of more effective responses, Griffin called on the government to "re-engage in public health, rather than letting the public take the risks themselves, and to invest more in the NHS and infrastructure, which will ultimately allow us to live realistically, rather than endure the virus".

Altman pointed out that strong testing, quarantine policies, and legislation on ventilation in schools and workplaces are pragmatic measures that can slow the spread of the new crown virus. He believes that the key is for Europe to "return to a more pragmatic, data-led" anti-epidemic policy. ■