#亚速钢铁厂战火熄灭 What are the gains and losses of Russia and Ukraine ##北顿涅茨克会成为第二个 "Mariupol"? #
Text/Fat Guy Eggplant
After the overall russian victory at the Azov steel plant, the main Russian forces began to attack the last Ukrainian fortress in Donbass, North Donetsk. It is reported that a few days ago, the Russian army has completed the encirclement of North Donetsk, 18,000 Ukrainian main forces have been imprisoned, and it seems that it is only a matter of time before the Russian army takes the entire Donbass.
According to the Russian news agency reported on May 23, the main force of the Russian army that withdrew from Mariupol and rushed to the northern front of The Donbass merged with the support forces that had just completed their rest and rushed to the rear, and began to launch a full-line attack on the city of Severodonitesk and its satellite cities in the "Luhansk Republic" area. It is reported that with the progress of the offensive, the Russian army has begun to carry out the tactic of "dividing and encircling" on the front line, interspersed with rapid maneuvers to cut off the connection between the various defensive positions of the Ukrainian army, and finally knock them out one by one.
Russian military expert Shurekin pointed out that at present, the Russian army has completed the division and encirclement of a number of Ukrainian front-line defensive positions, and the overall large encirclement circle is taking shape. And once this final "great encirclement" is formed, then the main forces of the Ukrainian army guarding North Donetsk will only be turtles in an urn. However, there are sources that the main Ukrainian army still holding the first line of North Donetsk may still have as many as 18,000 people, and the number of troops currently mobilized by the Russian army to the region is about 16,000, and the Russian army has a certain disadvantage in numbers. If the Russian army cannot send more reinforcements in a short period of time, then the "big encirclement" of the Russian army may be relatively weak for the Ukrainian army, and it is difficult to effectively prevent the main force of the Ukrainian army from retreating.
There are also media reports pointing out that on Sunday local time, the Russian army launched a new round of strategic offensive against North Donetsk, and got a foothold in several villages near North Donetsk. But the attack on the city was repulsed by Ukrainian armored forces, and the melee between the two armies led to severe damage to at least 34 buildings in the area. At present, the fighting between the two armies is still ongoing.
It is worth mentioning that for the capture of Severodonitesk, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu appeared confident. At a press conference held recently, he made it clear that "the Russian army, together with the local armed forces, has launched an offensive against Severodonsky and the liberation of the Republic of Luhansk is about to be completed" – and that Severodontsk is the last fortress that Ukraine has in the "Luhansk Republic" region.
Severodonitesk and its satellite city of Lisichansk are the last piece of land currently under Ukrainian control in the Donbass region, and for Russia, control of the entire Donbass region is the most important military objective of the Russian army at present. Therefore, it is foreseeable that around the Severodontsk region, the Ukrainian army, which is already in the "backwater war", and the Russian army, which is "victorious in sight", will inevitably launch an offensive and defensive war with the highest intensity and the largest scale in recent times. In fact, the two armies have recently launched a high-intensity artillery campaign of rare intensity, with an average of three shells falling into the city of Sidonnetsk every minute, which shows the intensity.
Some British scholars pointed out that the direction of the battle in the coming weeks will be very important for the entire Russo-Ukrainian war, which mainly depends on whether Russia can effectively control the entire Donbass region. This is because the Battle of North Donetsk can already be said to be the inflection point of the Russian-Ukrainian war, if the Russian army can control the city, then the entire Donbass can be said to have fallen into the hands of Russia, then Russia will have enough interests and chips to carry out peace negotiations with Ukraine; if Russia cannot control the city in a short period of time, then the Ukrainian army that has completed the mobilization may return to the Donbass region with the support of the United States and Britain and other NATO countries, posing a new military challenge to the Russian army that lacks advanced weapons and ammunition and sufficient troops. Therefore, whether the Russo-Ukrainian war can be ended in a short period of time depends on the Battle of Severodonitesk.