On May 16, Romuald Sheremetyev, former Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, called Kaliningrad a "powder keg between NATO's legs" and called for the region to be demilitarized and should be renamed. In his view, if Finland and Sweden join NATO, it will significantly strengthen the military alliance in Eastern Europe. What will Poland and its allies do next?
Poland and Kaliningrad on the map
Above Kaliningrad is Lithuania and below is Poland
As of 2022, the Polish army has a total strength of 115,500 people, ranking 41st in the world. The total number of NATO troops is about 3.5 million, and the total polish troops account for a very small proportion. This point of force is clearly not sufficient to achieve its plans for the demilitarization of Kaliningrad by its former Minister of Defence.
Russian military experts said: "The Russian army has four divisions stationed in Kaliningrad, about 50,000 troops. This was perfectly able to cope with the attack of the Polish army. ”
The Kaliningrad region, along with the South Korean Demilitarized Zone and China's naval bases, is considered one of the most heavily defended military territories in the world. There was not only the headquarters of the Baltic Fleet, but also a multi-service composite force stationed there.
Russian military experts said: "The statement on the 'demilitarization' of Kaliningrad is only a bluff and has no basis. The Poles thought that the whole of NATO would participate in the war, but the Poles themselves did not have the ability to do so. They could not even compete with the Belarusian army. The potential of the White Russian army was significantly superior to that of the Polish army. In addition, neither the Poles nor the polish and NATO coalition could fully occupy Kaliningrad. Because the area has well-fortified fortifications, the stockpile of weapons and ammunition is sufficient. Long-term defensive operations can be conducted. Even in the worst case, even if Kaliningrad is blockaded, the invaders' purpose will not be easily successful. Of course, if the above situation occurs, the Russian side will not be indifferent. We will lift the blockade through the Sivalsk Corridor and secure supplies through the Baltic States. ”
The Western Military District of Russia against the Baltic States
Considering that Kaliningrad is surrounded by unfriendly countries on the Baltic Sea, during the Russian military reform from 2008 to 2010, the two military regions in the west were merged into one western military district, that is, the Kaliningrad region was part of the western military region of Russia. Thus Poland and the Baltic states faced Russia's strong war-ready Western Military District.
According to the RAND Center for Strategic Studies, at least three armies and several brigade-sized units were concentrated in the Western Military District, equipped with at least a thousand guns of various calibers and types —from howitzers and self-propelled guns to rocket launchers of various calibers and heavy artillery. Its effective fire coverage is close to 100 kilometers, avoiding direct close combat with the enemy, eliminating the enemy at a long distance, and preventing casualties among our soldiers.
The five major military regions of Russia are distributed
The Lithuanian army was the largest of the Baltic states – about 20,000 men. Latvia has 6,200 soldiers, and the Estonian army numbers about 4,000. The military forces of these countries are barely self-sufficient, and without the support of other military alliances, they can hardly attack anywhere. According to Rand, the artillery fire of the Russian army's western military district was enough to cover the firepower strike capability of the entire Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian armed forces. As for Poland, it had better not get involved in a conflict with Russia, otherwise the consequences would be unpredictable.
Russian military experts said: "If they want, the Russian army can easily invade the Polish presidential palace and its ministry of defense from Kaliningrad and Belarus." But the premise is that these countries try to achieve their goal of "de-militarization". ”
Iskander is deployed in Kaliningrad
Long-range missile weapons have been deployed in Kaliningrad for a long time, and as defensive weapons, Russia can deploy them wherever it sees fit. But such deployments often cause resentment in the West, especially in Poland.
Iskander missile
The Iskander surface-to-surface missile is equipped with the 152nd Missile Brigade of the 11th Army of the Baltic Fleet. The main purpose of this tactical missile system is to destroy enemy air defense and missile defense systems, as well as strategically important targets. Iskander missiles can strike command posts, communications centers, enemy forces and equipment staging areas, enemy artillery, enemy aircraft and helicopters located at airfields, and other military targets. , its strike distance is 50 to 500 km, and the accuracy of the hit is five meters. The Iskander-M base is equipped with two 9M723 ballistic missiles or 9M728 cruise missiles. Of course, the Russian army also has Iskander-K-NATO, which has made it a land-based version of the Caliber cruise missile. The specific range of the missile has not been disclosed.
Western analysts believe that the Iskander surface-to-surface missile and the S-400 Triumph air defense system, together with the "Fortress" shore ship missile system, carry out a protective mission (area shielding) for the Russian military. The Russian surface-to-surface missile strike area could cover all of Europe – from the easternmost city in Poland to the westernmost city in Portugal.
Kaliningrad is not only an "iron walnut" for Poland
Two anti-aircraft missile brigades and three electronic countermeasure regiments have also been deployed in the Kaliningrad region. Western military analysts believe it was Kaliningrad that limited NATO's plans to enhance the military capabilities of the Baltic states at sea and in the air. The Kaliningrad enclave is a well-established "A2/AD anti-access/area denial" area. As early as 2016, Western "National Interest" publications wrote that the Regional Denial Zone in Kaliningrad was a potential danger to NATO.
According to Dan Gur, vice-chancellor of the University of Lexington, the cost of NATO infiltration into the A2/AD region of Kaliningrad is unacceptable and the amount of military resources that may be required for this purpose is unpredictable. U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien called Kaliningrad a "dagger in the heart of Europe" in February 2022, before Russia began its special operations.
Stefan Wolf, a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, called Kaliningrad an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" that undermined NATO forces in the Nordic region. This implication refers to the hypothetical invasion of Kaliningrad by NATO forces, not by weak Polish troops.
What would happen to Poland if there was a conflict with Russia?
According to military expert Viktor Litovkin, it is hard to imagine that the Poles would be able to break through the A2/AD region of Kaliningrad without the help of the Allies.
Earlier, experts pointed out that all rumors about the possibility of NATO forces breaking through the Kaliningrad air defense system were part of information warfare and psychological warfare. Poland is simply following the trajectory set by the United States. These unfriendly neighbors should understand that if they are just talking for a while, then they are not in any danger.
The slightest blow – even the most trivial provocation – in Kaliningrad would result in the lightning annihilation of the entire Baltic states along with Poland. In a sense, the losses of the Ukrainian army, which claims to be the third largest army in Europe, are a good example for NATO troops. At the same time, Russia's actions in Ukraine are extremely restrained and selective. But if an attack on Kaliningrad occurs, then these restraints and selectivity will not be suitable for the Russian army, which will do its best to carry out a comprehensive strike against the Baltic states.