Source: Privy Council No. 10
With the unconditional surrender of Ukrainian military personnel at the Azov steel plant, Russia declared that it had complete control of Mariupol. The Russian Defense Ministry announced on the 18th that in the past 24 hours, 694 militants in the Azov Steel Plant surrendered, including 29 wounded. Since the 16th, a total of 959 militants have surrendered. As of now, it seems that the "big fish" that has been hyped by foreign media has not appeared, but Lao Liu believes that as the armed personnel began to lay down their weapons and "evacuate" the steel plant, a big drama of catching "big fish" and anti-"catching" has just begun.
Screening is the first step in "catching fish"
If the previous siege and attack on the Azov steel plant is seen as draining the water from the lake, then the identification of the surrendered personnel is the official beginning of "catching fish". In the face of such a large number of "evacuees", how will the Russian army screen them?
The Russian "Life" news network reported on the 18th that at present, Donetsk investigators are conducting the first interrogation of the personnel of the Azov Steel Plant that surrendered. Russian military expert Konstantin Sivkov said that investigation operations may be carried out in many areas, but one of the most important issues is the investigation of criminal acts committed by the militants of the "Azov Battalion". There is already some relevant information for investigators. The passage of the trials will help to formally clarify all the crimes they have committed and to use the interrogation process as a historical document, as in the case of the Nuremberg Trial Archives.
How is the screening carried out and which bodies are responsible for the relevant matters? At present, the Russian side has not announced it to the public. However, Russian experts believe that the Russian side has a way to make the other side open its mouth.
Russian military psychologist Anatoly Ignatiev said that once the "Azov Battalion" militants fell into the hands of Russian investigators and handcuffed them, their psychological defenses would begin to collapse. This type of personality has long been well studied. Among the captives were also reportedly foreign mercenaries, who may ostensibly be indistinguishable from Ukrainian soldiers. The next task for the Russians will be to identify them during the initial interrogation.
Russian experts said the Azov militants had to hand over those who gave the orders. "We will learn about the situation of foreign mercenaries. How many of them are mercenaries and which are NATO's 'big fish'. ”
That is to say, the Russian military must first divide the surrendered personnel into three categories: Ukrainian army personnel, nationalist armed personnel such as the "Azov battalion", and foreign mercenaries. Careful screening among foreign mercenaries may also include ordinary foreign armed personnel who work with money, that is, "international volunteers" in the western media, and some people may be active military personnel and instructors of the US military or other NATO countries who use mercenaries as a cover.
And these four categories of people, if arranged according to the priority of the Russian side from the largest to the smallest, should be the "Azov battalion", Western military officers, Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries.
These people will also face completely different "treatment", and the way of handling them is directly linked to their degree of attention: according to the Russian side, the "Azov battalion" personnel will not be spared, or even in the way of "prisoner exchange".
Dennis Pushlin, the leader of the "Donetsk Republic", said on the 18th that the fate of the Ukrainian armed personnel trapped in the Azov steel plant in Mariupol and having surrendered will be decided by the court, "if it is a Nazi criminal, it will be tried by a military court." Pushlin stressed that the military court will be international.
That is to say, the fate of this part of the people has been determined, it is only a matter of time sooner or later, of course, this screening action is no less than a real knife and real gun battle, it will be a time-consuming and labor-intensive psychological and will contest.
The lowest-ranked foreign mercenaries (after excluding the Western active military who use this as a vest) are probably the least popular, and the Russian side has previously declared that it will not allow foreign mercenaries to enjoy prisoner-of-war treatment. And these people may themselves be brainwashed by extremist ideas such as "white people above", and their own governments are reluctant to take these extremists. How to deal with these people is a test for the Russian side.
The best thing to deal with may be the Ukrainian soldiers, especially the low-level soldiers of the Ukrainian army, if it is confirmed that they are not involved in the criminal activities related to the "Azov battalion", these soldiers are likely to become ordinary chips for the follow-up "prisoner exchange" with the Russian army. But there are also some special cases, that is, the senior officers of the Ukrainian Army, who are likely to have higher use value.
Is there really no "big fish"
Previously, the Western media has been speculating about the "big fish" in the Azov Steel Plant, and even reported a variety of bizarre versions of American generals, Canadian generals, and senior commanders in Nordic countries on foreign social media. But as of now, Russian and Ukrainian officials do not seem to have mentioned "big fish". Is there really no "big fish" in the Azov Steel Plant?
Lao Liu believes that what is a "big fish" can be explored from multiple dimensions.
First of all, does the "big fish" have to be human or must be a senior military officer in a Western country? Lao Liu thinks that not necessarily.
If it is not a senior commander of the Western army, but a number of active officers in Western countries who can confirm their identity, the rank is not particularly high, and it can still be regarded as a "big fish". The Russian side will certainly take this opportunity to publicize the participation of the West in encouraging Ukraine to carry out military operations against Russia, and even raise the necessity of Russia's special military operations against Ukraine to a very reasonable and well-founded height.
Second, can the "big fish" be a very high-value intelligence? Lao Liu believes that this possibility is also very high.
For example, Konstantin Sivkov, a doctor of Russian military science, believes that surrendered militants may expose a fact that the West has been trying to deny. They may provide top-secret information about biological laboratories located inside steel mills.
Lao Liu believes that for the Russian military, the surrender personnel of the Azov Steel Plant are undoubtedly an urgently needed "intelligence rich mine", although the interrogation and screening work will also be a time-consuming and laborious project.
Some of the high-value intelligence comes from the arming situation inside the Azov steel plant.
Although the Ukrainian government demanded the "end of the combat mission", it is very likely that there are still some "die-hard" elements or die-hard elements of the "Azov Battalion" who insist on the underground fortress of the steel plant. At the same time, it is not excluded that ukrainian militants installed explosives or booby traps inside the steel plant before the surrender, which will pose a huge threat to the subsequent battlefield clearance operations of the Russian army. Therefore, the Russian army needs to grasp the specific situation inside the Aeszov steel plant for the first time, and it needs to use the relevant information provided by the surrendered personnel to cross-compare and then "stitch" out a huge arming map for the Russian army to use when the Aeszov steel plant is carried out in the cleanup operation.
According to the OTAS news agency reported on the 18th, pushlin, the leader of the "Donetsk Republic", said that the Ilyich plant in Mariupol will be restored, and the Azov steel plant will be demolished. Lao Liu believes that this is not surprising. Because the Russian army will certainly not let the Azov Steel Plant, a facility with "spiritual symbolism" significance, and after a series of fierce battles, the industrial production function of the steel plant itself can be basically ignored.
If it is boldly conceived, the Russian side will not even rule out setting a deadline in the future to require the evacuation of all personnel in the bunkers of the steel plant, after which the Russian military may blast some facilities in the Azov steel plant to complete the demolition target. This approach will also form a huge deterrent to the Ukrainian military personnel who may remain in the bunker.
Another direction of the intelligence "big fish" is what are the ways and methods of transporting NATO countries' weapons to the Donbass region, and what are the hidden routes that have not yet been discovered; what kind of communication support is provided by NATO countries to the Ukrainian armed forces trapped in the Azov steel plant, and what are the communication frequencies and passwords. After all, the personnel in the steel plant can always maintain communication with the outside world after being surrounded by the Russian army; how NATO countries provide tactical intelligence support for the Ukrainian armed forces, and what kind of intelligence transmission equipment is used.
Once this information is obtained, it is equivalent to getting a password to open the door to subsequent combat operations, which will undoubtedly provide great help to Russia's combat operations in other battlefield directions in Donbass.
In short, the "evacuees" of the Ukrainian side are an "intelligence rich mine", and the Russian side will continue to tap its value. The information interrogated from the surrender personnel of the Azov Steel Plant will not only be conducive to Russia's next military operations, but also more likely to have an important international impact and become an important "weapon" for Russia and the UNITED States-led NATO to carry out international public opinion war.