After Friday's close, the Indian government announced a ban on wheat exports, which came into effect immediately, which also led to heightened global fears of a food crisis.
Of course, after Friday's close, there are two important pieces of information, one is good for real estate, the other is good for the construction of the square cabin hospital, these three directions will become the hot spot next week, if you have not read the previous article, you can click after reading this article, flip through the previous article.
1. India's ban on wheat exports has a huge global impact
India, the world's second-largest wheat producer, accounts for 14% of global production, despite its high yield. However, the domestic population base is large, and the export volume is not much, accounting for only 4% of the global export volume.
It doesn't seem like much of an impact. However, wheat prices have been on a downward trajectory since March, after doubling, mainly because the market expects India and Australia to increase wheat exports to alleviate the food crisis caused by the fight between the wheat export boss and the old three.
Now it is better, not only did not increase exports but banned exports, but also took effect immediately, and did not give you buffer time.
The main reason for India's ban on wheat exports is because of the rise in domestic food prices, and if you remember well, Kazakhstan also banned exports in March for this reason. The top ten wheat producers in the world have now gathered four, and the rest of the effort is a bit futile.
2. Rising grain prices have become inevitable
Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of the world's wheat exports, and now India and Kazakhstan have banned exports, leaving Australia, which accounts for 12% of global exports, even if Australia increases exports, it has become a drop in the face of global food shortages.
According to the USDA's forecast data, wheat production in 2022 is about 774.8 million tons, but global consumption will be 787.5 million tons in the same period, with a demand gap of more than 10 million tons.
Turning it into a big vernacular is that the grain produced this year is not enough to eat this year, let alone make reserves for next year, if the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate, the landlord's family has no surplus grain, and now it is eating last year's grain, and next year's food will be eaten, so it is speculated that the food crisis will become more and more aggravated.
3. Which food stocks to focus on?
Jinggrain Holdings, Xiamen Xiangyu, Oriental Group, Nongfa Seed Industry, Suken Nongfa, Beidahuang, Fengle Seed Industry, Xinsai Shares, etc.;
Of course, the concept of grain can also be extended, such as white sugar, wheat price increases have always led to the price increase of white sugar, white sugar three brothers COFCO Sugar, Nanning Sugar and Guangdong Shares.
Well, let's talk about it, next week's hot spots will revolve around the three sectors of real estate, cabin hospitals and agriculture, if you have not seen the logic of why these three sectors, I recommend clicking on the following and flipping through my last article.