China Fund News Taylor
The 2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum was held online on the 14th, and a number of top experts discussed it. Informative. The whole forum lasts more than 9 hours, the text is limited, it is recommended that you can go to the video number to see the playback.
Lin Yifu: One day China's total economic output will be twice that of the United States, and then the United States must maintain good relations with China
Lin Yifu pointed out that since the 21st century, emerging market economies have risen rapidly, especially China. China's share of global GDP in 2000 was 6.9%, and in 2018, its share of global GDP was 16.8%, an increase of 9.9%.
What are the reasons for China's rapid economic growth? How can emerging countries achieve this in the new century? Lin Yifu said that because emerging economic markets have the advantage of latecomers, the cost of scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading is much lower; at the same time, they can also benefit from globalization, which allows emerging markets to have enough markets to play their competitive advantages.
He pointed out that the biggest loser in the global landscape is the United States, because the United States has always been the largest economy in the world in the 20th century. By 2014, China had overtaken the United States as the world's largest economy
At the same time, Lin Yifu also pointed out that from an economic point of view, China's economy is the largest, but the per capita GDP level of the United States is higher. In today's situation, what is the best strategy for China to go next? Lin Yifu gave two suggestions.
The first recommendation is to maintain dynamic economic development.
Lin Yifu pointed out that China is in a catch-up state, with the average GDP of Chinese equivalent to a quarter of that of the United States, and the United States has a higher proportion of per capita GDP and technology per capita. But China is constantly making strides to catch up, and has a latecomer advantage.
He pointed out that China's current technology penetration rate is similar to that of Germany in the 1940s, Japan in the 1950s, and South Korea in the 1980s, and the economic growth rate of the countries that came after the model was 8%-9%. For China, there is an economic growth potential of 8% per year. At the same time, China is already the world's largest economy in terms of "purchasing power parity", with a very large domestic market, a high share of the international economy, and a better political environment to ensure its stable growth.
Lin Yifu believes that China should give full play to these advantages and maintain dynamic economic growth.
The second recommendation is to maintain an open attitude and become a promoter of globalization.
Why is this recommended? First, Lin pointed out that because China is now the world's largest economy, we can maintain a potential growth rate of 8% of the economy and can actually achieve 5-6% growth every year. If China can maintain such rapid growth, it will continue to contribute to the development of the global economy, so China continues to contribute at least a quarter or more of the world's growth every year.
Second, Lin Yifu pointed out that China is not only the world's largest economy in terms of purchasing power, China is also the world's largest trading country, and now China is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries, and the second largest trading partner of more than 70 countries.
"So globally you can do the math that for 90 percent of the world, China is either their biggest trading partner or the second largest trading partner." Lin Yifu said.
Lin Yifu believes that trade is a win-win thing, especially in the context of the contemporary globalized economy, everyone should achieve a win-win situation of 1+1 greater than 2, so he suggested that China maintain high-speed dynamic economic growth and maintain an open reform attitude.
Finally, Lin pointed out that Chinese average GDP accounts for 50% of the United States, And China's population is actually 4 times that of the United States, and one day it will be 2 times the total us economy.
"When that day comes, the United States will have to make a balance and a choice, it must trade with China, and it must maintain good relations with China." In particular, only by dealing with China can we maintain our own employment rate, ensure that their countries have benefits, maintain normal economic relations, and thus establish a new global order, which is a new order of stability and peace. Lin Yifu finally said.
Huang Qifan: We must establish an effective delisting system, otherwise the stock market will become a paradise for junk stocks
Establish an anchor for the RENMINBI at the right time
China's capital market is second only to the United States in size, becoming the second largest capital market in the world. However, the functions of the capital market, the optimal allocation of resources, and the functions of the barometer of the national economy have not yet been highlighted. In the past 20 years, the mainland's GDP has tripled, but the capital market was more than 2,000 points 20 years ago, and now it is still 2,000 points to 3,000 points, and there is almost no growth.
Why? He believes there are three weak links.
From the perspective of financing, the reform of the registration system has now been carried out, the number of listed companies has exceeded 4,000, and the number of listed companies has grown rapidly, but under the accelerated expansion of the market, the diversion of existing funds is obvious, the pressure of "blood drawing" is very large, and the over-the-counter funds are in a wait-and-see attitude, which will also lead to further diversion of stock funds in the stock market.
"So how do you solve this problem? It is not to say that it is necessary to issue, pause, issue, pause, and control the number of listings, but the key is to establish an effective delisting system, break the rigid payment of the mainland stock market IPO, and achieve the survival of the fittest, there are in and out", Huang Qifan said metaphorically, breathing and breathing, there must be breathing and inhaling, if only in and out, then the stock market will become a paradise for junk stocks.
He suggested that it is necessary to maintain the survival of the fittest in the stock market, that is, to keep the number of listed and delisted stocks roughly the same. "For example, in the United States, in the five years from 2010 to 2015, more than 1,500 new stocks were listed. Delisting has also withdrawn 1400, which forms the survival of the fittest", in contrast to the Chinese stock market, "now more than 4000, is it in ten years to change five thousand, six thousand, seven thousand?" ”
"I recently noticed that the CSRC has accelerated the construction of the delisting system, which is a good start and a very important thing," he said.
From the investment side, the proportion of long-term investment funds is relatively low. Huang Qifan said that due to the long-term high volatility characteristics of the mainland capital market and the lack of stable wealth effect, the assets of residents and long-term funds, including many institutions, do not dare to invest their own funds in the stock market, and often set a lot of restrictions on the proportion of investment in the stock market.
He compared with the United States, the United States institutional investment in the total market value accounted for about 60%, while Chinese institutional investment accounted for only 13% of the total market value, A-share institutionalization degree obviously has a lot of room for improvement.
How to solve this problem? Huang Qifan said that enterprise annuities, national social security funds, and commercial insurance funds can constitute China's version of the 401K social security system, which can accumulate long-term funds for the development of the stock market economy while improving the social pension security system.
From the institutional point of view, Huang Qifan bluntly said that the comprehensive strength and competitiveness of mainland securities companies are not high, and the concentration of the securities industry is very low. And the public fund industry is also facing structural problems - the size of monetary funds accounts for 90%, and the scale of funds invested in stocks accounts for only 10%, while the international general is 50 to 50.
"Our cemetery funds don't invest in the stock market, so that's a problem. As a result, the long-term value investment ability and professional pricing ability of public funds do not fully reflect the contribution of pricing efficiency to the capital market and the functional efficiency of supporting the real economy, nor do they reach the level that public funds should be," Huang Qifan said.
How to solve this problem? Huang Qifan believes that the key is to strengthen the institutional investor force in the capital market, including public funds, private funds, insurance institutions, investment and operation companies, industrial guidance funds, foreign-funded institutions and so on.
Huang Qifan said bluntly that the real investment of public, private and insurance funds in the stock market accounts for only 10% of the total amount of funds, which is too conservative, "These institutions that represent the government themselves dare not invest in the stock market, and have no confidence, so why should it be embarrassing for national investors and retail investors to do this work?" ”。
Huang Qifan said during the roundtable discussion that making great efforts to do a good job in finance is the main direction of deepening reform in the next stage, the key fire to activate innovation, and the key area of expanding opening up.
Among them, Huang Qifan pointed out that the anchor of the renminbi should be established in due course. At present, the issuance of the renminbi is still anchored to the dollar to a certain extent, which of course has various historical and practical reasons. However, in terms of China's future international status and development needs, this status quo is by no means a long-term solution. In his view, a country's currency should be anchored to the amount of tax included in its own GDP, anchored in its own national debt credit, only in this way can it have its own seigniorage tax. Only with its own independent monetary anchor and its own treasury yield curve can there be a truly autonomous monetary policy, and the pricing of all domestic financial assets has a benchmark. This problem is becoming more and more urgent in the current increasingly complex international game and needs to be studied.
Li Xunlei talks about the negative growth of housing loans: Residents now prefer to pay off their loans rather than borrow them
It is recommended that fiscal policy continue to increase its efforts to spend on consumption.
How to smooth the internal circulation? Li Xunlei pointed out that at present, we are mainly through infrastructure investment in the smooth internal circulation, which is very strong in this regard and the policy is very clear. But it is not enough to rely solely on infrastructure investment to make the internal cycle completely smooth. Judging from the data of the first quarter, the growth rate of national fixed asset investment reached 9.3%, especially the relatively strong recovery in infrastructure investment, and the investment in real estate and manufacturing has declined to a certain extent, but how long can infrastructure investment last? He said that in the past, the participation rate of private capital in infrastructure investment was relatively high, but the rate of return on infrastructure investment declined, and local government special bonds were still growing. At this time, if you continue to invest, the leverage level of local governments may become higher and higher, he stressed, to fully estimate the problems that may arise in this regard.
From the data of the first quarter, the impact of the epidemic is very obvious, whether it is the consumption of necessities or optional consumer goods, there has been a significant decline, the data for April has not been released, the financial data has been announced, and there has been a negative growth in residential loans, which is the second negative growth this year, and the negative range is very large. Residents are now reluctant to repay their loans than to borrow them, and the sales of real estate are also obviously declining in all aspects.
He said that domestic demand mainly depends on investment and consumption. Investment at present, infrastructure investment is responsible, but the consumption engine has not yet started, foreign capital is more subject to overseas demand, with the Fed monetary policy tightening, the overall external demand will also weaken, our dollar-denominated exports in April also showed negative growth, so the significance of promoting consumption is still very important. In terms of promoting consumption, it is nothing more than the application of fiscal policy and monetary policy, but monetary policy has limited role in the face of such a structural problem as the present.
For yesterday's financial data, the interpretation is also very much, whether it is the credit of residents or the credit of enterprises have appeared a very significant decline, in the current US interest rate hike background, the space for interest rate cuts is also limited, so in general, there is a certain degree of monetary operation policy, at the same time, the central bank's monetary investment is also at a historical low.
Fiscal policy should be very positive, compared with last year, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in a broad sense of about 10%, last year was only 0.3%, this year's tax reduction and fee reduction and tax rebate strength is also very large, the total scale of the whole year is expected to 2.5 trillion, especially the tax rebate This is to solve the current cash flow problems of enterprises, bailout problem has a very positive effect. The problem lies in our financial investment, mainly to ensure that the main body, that is, the main body of the enterprise, can play a positive role in employment. However, he believes that there is less investment in fiscal expenditure directly in the field of consumption. He suggested that the fiscal policy should continue to be strengthened, especially for consumption, and consumption coupons can be issued. When the epidemic broke out in the United States in 2020, it was mainly through direct payment of dollars to resident families, and this no consumption coupon was targeted.
Li Xunlei said that China's economic development has now appeared several inflection points, such as the inflection point of population aging, this year's total population may have the first negative growth in history, the decline in the working-age population has lasted for 10 years, and the inflection point of real estate has also come out. So the growth pattern of the past is now difficult to sustain any longer. In addition to relying on investment to drive more consumption, the role of consumption will be greater than that of infrastructure investment, because infrastructure investment is facing the problem of finding good projects more and more difficult, the return on investment is getting lower and lower, and cash flow is becoming more and more difficult, and we must increase our consumption.
At present, China's consumption is OK from the total amount, because our population base is large, and the performance of rapid economic growth and consumption upgrading in recent years is also very prominent. However, our households are more used to invest and buy houses, so there is a problem that the consumption rate is too low.
Can we reform through income redistribution? From the perspective of the various tax proportions of the US federal government, you will find that the proportion of individual taxes is 47%, and in 2021, the proportion of individual taxes is only 7.3%, which is difficult to effectively tax China's high-income groups, so reform is imperative. In addition, the third distribution should increase corporate responsibility, increase corporate philanthropy, and take various measures to improve the income structure of residents and raise the income level of the middle-income group, which is conducive to the sustainable growth of China's economy.
Li Daokui called for gold: 6 billion yuan can give Shanghai vulnerable families a bottom line
Li Daokui, Freeman Chair Professor of Economics at Tsinghua University, Professor of School of Social Sciences of Tsinghua University, Dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice of Tsinghua University, and Founding Dean of Schwarzman College of Tsinghua University, attended and delivered a speech.
Li Daokui said that the current international situation is extremely complex, domestic risks and challenges are also very many, under the current circumstances, if you want to deal with the challenges, the most important thing is to do your own thing, do yourself, "do a good job of yourself is the best way to cope with the complex international situation and severe challenges."
So, how do you do your own thing? Li Daokui believes that the first thing is to control the epidemic well, he stressed that "people are supreme, life is supreme".
For how to understand "people first, life first", he made a comparison with "average life expectancy". "One of the fundamental purposes of economic development is to increase the average life expectancy of ordinary people, and I feel that every Chinese is very proud, in 1949 the average life expectancy of 35 years has increased to 77 years today, and in the past 30 years we have increased by 99 days a year."
"When people celebrate their birthdays, they must remember that after this birthday, although they are a little older and close to the final end of their lives, in fact, economic development has delayed you for 99 days."
Li Daokui said that from the perspective of average life expectancy, the fight against the epidemic in the past two years has made achievements. "The great victories [of the fight against the epidemic] in the past two years have extended the average life expectancy of every citizen by ten days, an average of 5 days per year."
He quoted research from Fudan University as saying that if the fight against the epidemic is not done well and the strict fight against the epidemic is not adhered to, 1.55 million lives may be lost. "Most of them may be middle-aged and elderly, counting this down, spreading it to everyone, the average life expectancy will be reduced by 4 days", Li Daokui stressed, not talking about economic accounts, completely "people first, life first", this is objective data.
Li Daokui believes that economic development and thus improving living standards are one of the important factors in increasing average life expectancy. Economic development can increase public health investment, enhance the level of scientific and technological progress, improve education level, and promote a healthy lifestyle.
Li Daokui said that in the past 30 years, per capita consumption has risen or fallen by one percentage point, which can bring about an increase or decline in life expectancy of 10 days. "We do not talk about vulgar material consumption, improving the living standards of the people is to extend the average life expectancy, 1% of the per capita consumption growth can improve the life of 10 days a year, ten days is equivalent to saving 4 million lives through the fight against the epidemic."
Returning to the fight against the epidemic, Li Daokui believes that there are two battlefields. One battleground is to keep the epidemic from spreading, and the immediate goal is to reduce the loss of life. "To ensure the non-spread of the epidemic is to buy time, wait for specific drugs, wait for better vaccines."
"The most dangerous and easy to infect are the middle-aged and elderly and people with underlying diseases, we must fight for time for grandparents, older fathers, mothers, to create conditions for them, persuade them to vaccinate if conditions permit, or establish a medical system for the elderly", Li Daokui also called on the relevant medical departments to put the elderly and people with basic physical diseases in the first place, and we will fight for time to build their protective line.
The second battlefield is to protect the economy. This includes the development of the industrial chain, "At this moment, many factories can not fully resume work, resumption of work can not be completely resumed, we can not self-destruct the Great Wall, only busy reducing infection, the industrial chain forgot, protecting the industrial chain is to ensure our future economic growth potential."
Li Daokui stressed that we must not only focus on today but also look at tomorrow, and tomorrow's income is also very important, so the industrial chain must be preserved. "Can front-line workers temporarily gather together to build board houses, do not isolate at home, isolate next to the factory, and isolate while producing."
If we can keep the production line, keep the industrial chain, and maintain the potential GDP growth rate, because consumption is basically synchronized with the economy, per capita consumption increases by one percentage point per year, which translates into life expectancy can increase by 6 days.
In addition, it is also important to maintain consumption. Li Daokui said that due to the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of the people is declining, not only because online shopping can not be done, but also many people's income is declining, resulting in a decline in consumption, and this decline in consumption has inertia.
"We did a data study and found that today's consumption fell by 1%, the next seven or eight years will decline, there will be psychological shadows", what to do? Li Daokui said that in order to ensure residents' consumption, logistics must be smooth, and more importantly, cash subsidies should be given directly to the affected people.
He cited Shanghai as an example, 25 million citizens, if the average family of 4, then there are about 6 million families. "The government is so capable, 6 million families in the lowest income of 10%, select 600,000 families, each family to give ten thousand yuan in cash, 600,000 families is 6 billion, Tesla a year to the Shanghai Municipal Government, according to the original forecast next year is 2 billion, SAIC more than this, SAIC pays taxes a year in more than 15 billion, take out the SAIC Group to pay 6 billion to the poorest 10% of the family subsidies, while giving cash subsidies to people who are concentrated in need of isolation, In this way, we should stabilize future consumption, do not produce psychological shadows, and stabilize future consumption is to stabilize health," Li Daokui suggested.
"In the complex international situation, the most important thing is to do your own thing, that is, to protect the economy is to protect life, and to stabilize the economy is to protect life, so the work in this regard needs to be further done," he said.
Sheng Songcheng: Some consumption loss is difficult to make up, I have not cut my hair in three months, but it is impossible to manage it three times a month after unsealing
Sheng Songcheng, Adjunct Professor of Economics and Finance at China Europe International Business School, Former Director of the Survey and Statistics Department of Chinese Min Bank, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and Doctoral Supervisor of Wudaokou School of Finance of Tsinghua University, attended and delivered a speech.
Sheng Songcheng said that the impact of the epidemic on the mainland economy will be mainly reflected in the second quarter, the recovery of consumption may be relatively slow, and the epidemic has hindered the recovery of the real estate industry. He believes that the two events that have the greatest impact on the mainland economy at present are the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the epidemic, the latter of which has attracted more attention.
Sheng Songcheng said that in the first two months of this year, the mainland's economic operation was better than expected, but the recurrence of the new crown epidemic has brought new challenges to the economy, especially the recent epidemic situation, which has seriously affected the operation of the mainland's core cities. "Unlike the last epidemic, which was mainly in Wuhan, this time the epidemic is in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, especially the Yangtze River Delta Shanghai, and the external impact is also very large."
According to Sheng Songcheng's estimates, the mainland's economic growth rate in the second quarter was between 1.7 and 3.2%, "this width is relatively large, but the more likely of it is around 2.1%." He analyzed that if the economic growth rate in the second quarter is about 2.1%, then the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year is expected to be around 3.5%. From the perspective of the whole year, if it can reach 5.5% in the third quarter and 6% in the fourth quarter, then the GDP for the whole year is still likely to reach 5%.
"In fact, the state has set about 5.5%, which can be 5% on the left and 6% on the right, so as long as the annual GDP reaches or is close to 5%, I think it is basically completed the annual economic and social development goals," he said.
Sheng Songcheng expects that the policies in areas less affected by the epidemic will be forced in advance and soon. Areas more affected by the epidemic may be slower, until late May or even June, "but in any case, the mainland's economy will be significantly better in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year."
When it comes to consumption, Sheng Songcheng is not optimistic.
He took Wuhan as an example, judging from the economic recovery after the Wuhan epidemic in 2021, industrial production and investment have achieved a typical rebound after the resumption of work and production. But the recovery in consumption has been slow, taking about a year to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Why? He explained that the slow recovery of consumption is related to the weakening of willingness to consume. "When the Wuhan epidemic occurred, people generally thought that it was short-term and would soon pass, but now with the continuation of the epidemic, many market players are facing deep tests leading to a decline in consumption potential, and the lost decline, especially service consumption, is often difficult to make up."
He cited his own experience as an example, "I am very experienced in Shanghai, I was sealed for two months, my hair was not straightened for three months, if I unsealed, I can't straighten it three times a month, so these lost consumption will be lost forever." Not only that, but also service consumption in all aspects of catering, tourism, hotels, etc., is difficult to make up."
According to a first-quarter central bank survey, residents who tended to save more increased by 2.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, while residents who preferred to invest more were 1.9 percentage points lower than in the previous quarter.
Sheng Songcheng analyzed that there is passive savings here - due to the need to stay at home, reduce consumption, become passive savings, and some are active savings, due to the impact of the epidemic, some people's income is decreasing.
"A lot of ordinary people's incomes are declining. Let me give you the simplest example, I have a phD student many years ago who is now unemployed, he is quite good, after unemployment, there is no income, but also to raise children, I transferred a sum of money to him, everyone thinks, such a big man, he is willing to accept the money transferred to him by the teacher, what does it mean? He will not accept it unless he has to."
Talking about the real estate market, Sheng Songcheng said that the epidemic has hindered the comprehensive situation of real estate. "The biggest impact of the epidemic on real estate is that the recovery situation may be blocked as a result, reducing the growth rate of real estate development and seriously impacting real estate sales."
In addition, the industry expectation of real estate has further deteriorated. "In April, people's loans increased by only 645.4 billion yuan, an increase of 82.3 billion yuan year-on-year, of which rental loans decreased by 60.5 billion yuan and increased by 402.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which explains the consumption of residents and the reduction of house purchases."
Sheng Songcheng said that the current risk of the real estate industry is highlighted by the superposition of debt crisis and epidemic risks, and the risk of head private enterprises is still continuing, of which a large number of housing enterprises in the second quarter have matured us dollar bonds to become another risk point.
Finally, Sheng Songcheng put forward three suggestions:
First, real estate regulation and control can continue to be relaxed, such as appropriately extending the deleveraging cycle and continuing to appropriately relax demand-side restrictions, but the relaxation of key cities still needs to be cautious and optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds. First, under the premise of ensuring the reasonable use of funds, the freezing ratio of pre-sale funds can be appropriately reduced, "Now in order to ensure that their real estate does not have problems, local governments will freeze pre-sale funds, and even freeze 100%, if this is the case, it will be difficult for real estate enterprises to circulate." Second, within a certain administrative region, funds can be transferred across projects.
Second, taking infrastructure as an important starting point for stabilizing growth can promote economic stabilization and improve market expectations in a relatively short period of time. "We should speed up the implementation of the State Council's participation in the meeting to promote the acceleration of the 102 major projects and special planning projects stipulated in the 14th Five-Year Plan."
Third, the active fiscal policy should be more actively participated in, and the prudent monetary policy should be steadily improved, so as to promote the recovery and development of the private economy and actively cooperate with the implementation of fiscal policy.
"We must also get the economy up at any cost," he stressed.
Nomura Securities Lu Ting: The probability of interest rate cuts in the next one or two months will rise. The amplitude is around 10 basis points
The space for RRR cuts is getting smaller and smaller, and the rate cuts are not very large
Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura Securities, said at the "2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum" today that the April credit data marginally reduced the probability of a RRR cut in the next month or two. On the other hand, the recent call for interest rate cuts is relatively high, increasing the margin of interest rate cuts in the next one or two months, and the probability of interest rate cuts has risen significantly, but interest rate cuts face many restrictions, or around 10 basis points.
Lu Ting said that in terms of monetary policy, after more than 8 years of RRR cuts, the average reserve ratio of our country's commercial banks is only 8.1%, and the reserves of many banks are close to 5%, so the space for RRR cuts is indeed getting smaller and smaller. From a peripheral point of view, the United States will definitely raise interest rates sharply this year, there will be a certain degree of inversion of Sino-US interest rates, there will be some withdrawal of funds from our country's bond market and stock market, and the renminbi is facing a certain degree of depreciation pressure. In addition, our country's CPI also has a certain upward trend, our country's deposit benchmark interest rate has been at a historic low since the end of 2015, and now there is no small space to reduce the deposit interest rate, and the loan interest rate will definitely compress the spread of the bank without reducing the deposit rate. Banks have accumulated some bad debts in the past year, and reducing spreads at this time is not conducive to the stability of the financial system.
On the other hand, the demand for effective credit is relatively weak. The credit figures in April, less than half of the same period last year, the main problem is the lack of high-quality borrowers for banks, they may not want to borrow money, on the other hand, in the face of people who want to borrow money, banks dare not lend to them, so now face the problem of insufficient effective demand.
In addition, the traditional policy transmission mechanism has failed in some aspects, and in the past, the economy was mainly driven by real estate and infrastructure, which was the most important method when the economy was not good. Just said that the real estate pull is very difficult, various places have introduced a lot of policies, real estate can not come from the local government land sales income has a great impact, infrastructure is difficult to come up, so the entire transmission mechanism is now facing problems.
Finally, how to play a good combination of policies and how to force the problem. He said that consumption coupons are a very good policy and a point where they can be forced. In the context of the already limited space for monetary policy, it is necessary to increase the intensity of fiscal expenditure this year, and optimize the direction of fiscal expenditure, stabilize expectations by increasing fiscal expenditure, ensure the stable operation of grass-roots governments and ensure the main body of the market.
He pointed out that the steady growth of guaranteed expenditure must ensure the source of income. Public revenue is not enough, our income from land sales is not enough, we need to increase the funds that the government can allocate through other channels, and even adjust the scale of this year's deficit at a certain time.
From the perspective of fiscal expenditure, entering the third year of the epidemic, many families and many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing great difficulties, highlighting the importance of bailouts, some credit policies in fiscal policy are inclined to them, fiscal policies leverage credit policies, such as increasing interest discounts, loan guarantees, in terms of bailouts to give a certain rent reduction, tax and tax reduction is very important.
In terms of infrastructure, we have intensified our efforts, especially the start and construction of projects with reasonable return funds, giving priority to the infrastructure of central cities and urban agglomerations where the population flows in, and the RENMINBI has depreciated somewhat in terms of foreign trade, but the appreciation in the past two years has brought loose space, which is beneficial to a certain extent. In a timely and moderate manner, the liquidity of the renminbi can be released by purchasing foreign exchange from the market, saving the space for reducing the RRR, while maintaining the current state of slight depreciation of the renminbi.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine is up to date
VLADIMIR PUTIN: It would be a mistake
On the 14th local time, according to the Kremlin, Russian President Putin was invited to make a call with Finnish President Niinistö. The two sides exchanged views on Finland's application to join NATO.
Putin stressed that Finland's abandonment of its traditional policy of military neutrality would be a mistake because Finland's security was not threatened. Changes in Finland's foreign policy could have a negative impact on Russian-Finnish relations.
The two sides also discussed the situation in Ukraine. Putin said that the negotiation process has effectively been suspended because kiev has not shown interest in a serious and constructive dialogue.
Foreign media: The President of Finland and Putin talked about joining NATO on the 14th
According to Agence France-Presse, the Finnish President's Office said that Finnish President Niinistö spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 14th about the country's application to join NATO. Finland expects to announce the application this weekend.
"The conversation was direct and frank," Niinistö's office quoted him in a statement, "the call was initiated by Finland." ”
Finnish President Niinistö and Prime Minister Marin issued a joint statement on the 12th saying that they support Finland's application to join NATO. Moscow responded quickly to this on the 12th, stressing that Finland's accession to NATO will cause serious damage to Russia-Finland bilateral relations and the maintenance of stability and security in the Nordic region, and said that russia will formulate countermeasures, and the specific approach depends on how NATO implements the expansion process.
"Ukraine can win before the end of the year," he said.
According to Agence France-Presse reported on the 14th, Kyrylo Budanov, director of the Intelligence Bureau of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, claimed on the same day that the war in Ukraine may reach a "breakthrough point" in August and "end with Russia's defeat" before the end of the year.
The 36-year-old Ukrainian major general told British Sky News that he was "optimistic about the trajectory of the current conflict".
"The breakthrough point will be in the second half of August," Budanov said, "most of the active combat operations will be completed by the end of this year ... As a result, we will restore Ukraine's power in all the territories that have been lost, including Donbass and Crimea."
Budanov also said Ukraine "knows our enemies very well." Budanov also reportedly made some unsubstantiated claims about the Russian side.
Regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview a few days ago: "As long as the goals I have explained to you are achieved and achieved, it will end." ”
Russian Foreign Minister: The West Practices "Real Robbery" in Pursuing Anti-Russian Policies
On the 14th local time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said at the foreign and defense policy committee meeting that today's West has practiced "real robbery" in pursuing anti-Russian policies, and the West is ready to confront Russia to "(the remaining) last Ukrainian". He also pointed out that the United States is weakening Europe in order to expand its market share in goods, technology and military products.
Lavrov said that a small number of countries had imposed the colonialist practice of dividing the world on the international community, making every country that wanted to pursue an independent policy under attack.
Zelensky: Macron is wasting his time
Global Times news, according to Agence France-Presse reported on the 13th, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy believes that French President Macron is trying in vain to engage in constructive dialogue with Russian President Putin.
According to an interview record released by Kiev on the same day, Zelenskiy said in an interview with Italian national television 1: "We can't find a way out for Russia, Macron is wasting his efforts." ”
Zelenskiy said, "I know he tried to mediate between Russia and Ukraine to produce results, but he didn't get any results." Zelenskiy also said Moscow would not seek any solution to the war "until Russia itself wants and understands that it needs to do so."
Deutsche Welle said that since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Scholz are among the few Western leaders who are still talking to Putin.
The Elysee Palace told AFP on the 13th that Macron "has never discussed anything with Putin without Zelenskiy's consent" and that "he (Macron) always said that it is up to the Ukrainians to decide the terms of their negotiations with the Russians".
The Group of Seven said it was ready to supply weapons to Ukraine for a long time
The Group of Seven said on the 14th local time that it does not rule out the possibility of long-term delivery of weapons and other military equipment to the Ukrainian army.
The Group of Seven issued a joint statement on the same day, saying that if necessary, member states will provide sustained military and defense assistance to Ukraine in the coming years.
Germany holds the rotating presidency of the G7 in 2022. From 12 to 14 July, Germany hosted the G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting, which focused on the global implications of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. German Foreign Minister Berberk delivered a speech after the meeting on the 14th, warning that the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has increased the risk of a global food crisis. She noted that not only in western countries, but also in the world, commodity prices have increased, and nearly 50 million people in Africa and the Middle East are under threat of hunger, and they will be particularly affected.
Shake the financial circle! The post-80s product manager of the head office of a well-known bank was sentenced to a bribe of more than 2 million yuan in two years! Involving a number of funds and brokers, details exposed