【Introduction】Turning the clock may into the middle of the month, looking back at the pig market in the past month, pig prices seem to be "reborn", in mid-April, pig prices are still sideways price bottom, pig prices hover at 12.33 yuan / kg, however, in just 1 month, the domestic pig price has climbed to 15.41 yuan / kg, this round of pig prices against the trend, the stage increase of up to 3.08 yuan, pig prices rose by 25%! Since at this stage, the pig price is still slightly lower than the fattening cost line, therefore, the current round of pig prices rose by 25%, which also indicates that the loss of pigs out of the barn is significantly reduced, according to the market 120 kg of pigs out of the barn, the profit rebounded by about 370 yuan!
According to market feedback, at present, the domestic lean pig price, the average price of 15.41 yuan / kg, up 0.26 yuan from the previous day, the last 3 days, the pig price increased as high as 0.74 yuan, pig prices stopped falling and rose, an increase of nearly 5%! Pig prices have risen in a big stride, in the domestic north and south markets, pig prices continue to climb, and pig prices in many places have advanced into the "8-figure head"!
According to data analysis, on May 11, the northern market, Beijing and Tianjin pig prices soared 8 yuan / jin, Liaoning region, pig prices also soared 7.5 yuan / jin, in Hebei and Shanxi region, pig prices also climbed to about 7.7 yuan / jin, pig price distance of 8 yuan / jin is only a matter of time! In the southern region, most of East China, pig prices have entered the "8 yuan era", and the Fujian market has soared 8.2 yuan / catty. In Guangdong, the price of pigs rose to 8.9 yuan / catty, and the market showed a general upward trend, so what is the support for the rise in pig prices?
Personal prediction, this round of pig prices rose sharply, the support is based on the difference in market sentiment, with the domestic mainstream pig futures market rise, the market for the third and fourth quarters of pig prices bullish sentiment increased sharply, and fattening piglets have also become the focus of floating capital operations, farmers to strengthen the price sentiment, the market pig supply reduction, which also promotes the continuous strengthening of pig prices! And into May, as Guangdong ushered in the restrictions on the transfer of pig sources, the local scale pig enterprises out of the barn mood weakened, the market pressure bar price sentiment is high, although, by the surrounding influx of pigs that meet the requirements of point-to-point transfer and transportation increased, pig prices have a brief downward trend, but, with the opening of Guangdong for the inter-provincial transfer of pigs, the local slaughterhouse pig source is insufficient, the arrival of some wholesale market white strip pigs is also significantly lagging behind, under the influence of large-scale precipitation in the south, market supply and demand are blocked, and pig prices are rising against the trend. Domestic pig prices showed a sharp rise in performance!
However, with the soaring price of live pigs, pig prices will also usher in a crisis, pig prices or will once again "change face", the market has the basis for rushing up and down!
On the one hand, due to the rapid rebound of pig prices, the market pork prices are rising, the consumption support is obviously insufficient, the resistance of traders to high-priced white strips has increased sharply, while the domestic mask problem continues, the demand for catering and large-scale pork is not performing well, the enthusiasm of residents for procurement is weakened, and the performance of the market consumption end is gradually increasing!
On the other hand, the price of pigs rose too fast, the price of pigs in many places in the north and south rose into the "8-figure head", the pressure on farmers to lose money weakened, some high-priced areas, pig prices rose to the fattening cost line, due to the high level of domestic sow stocks, the market pig supply is still relatively sufficient, after the sharp rise in pig prices, the mood of large-scale pig enterprises out of the pen or will become thicker, the market pig circulation will gradually accelerate, slaughterhouses are limited by consumption constraints and the trend of falling difficulty in collecting pigs, or there is the mood of suppressing prices to close pigs!
Therefore, based on the sharp rise in pig prices in the short term, the market lacks sustained support, with the intensification of the supply and demand game, pig prices or will change face, the market has the risk of rushing up and falling! However, due to the current south China and Jiangnan and other places, there is still a wide range of rainy weather process, which may affect the market pig out of the barn and the wholesale market white strip pig arrival, therefore, although, the slaughterhouse has a price pressure sentiment, however, the downward trend of pig prices or will be delayed, South China and other places, pig prices or continue to rise support!