Central Commission for Discipline Inspection State Supervision Commission website Li Yunshu Chai Yaxin
Draft: Zhang Han
In response to the epidemic situation, Italy has extended the indoor mandatory mask order to June 15, and people still need to wear masks when entering hospitals, nursing homes and other places and taking public transportation. The picture shows the citizens of Rome passing through the subway station ticket gate recently. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Jin Ma Mengni
To appreciate the real threat of covid-19, the number of "excess deaths" is the most convincing.
On May 5, Geneva local time, an assessment report released by the World Health Organization showed that between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021, the number of direct or indirect deaths caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, that is, the number of "excess deaths", was about 14.9 million, and the actual range was between 13.3 million and 16.6 million.
"Excess deaths" refers to the difference between the number of deaths actually occurring globally and the number of normal deaths estimated based on the years in which the pandemic did not occur, including deaths directly attributable to the epidemic and indirectly related deaths due to the impact of the pandemic on health systems and society, and relative reductions in deaths due to traffic accidents and work injuries, etc., which are also taken into account.
According to the latest data released by WHO, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide has exceeded 510 million. The number of confirmed cases continues to rise, the virus mutates continuously, and the global epidemic is far from over.
The proportion of "excess deaths" relative to the total population in a number of high-income countries is higher than the global average, including the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom
The WHO report is the most authoritative study to date on the true number of deaths caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. The figure of 14.9 million is almost three times the number of deaths previously reported directly by who are officially reported by countries.
This means that 1 in every 500 people worldwide dies from COVID-19-related causes.
According to statistics, 84% of the world's "excess deaths" occur in Southeast Asia, Europe and the Americas, and about 68% of the "excess deaths" are concentrated in India, Russia, Indonesia, the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and other ten countries. Of the 14.9 million deaths, middle-income countries account for 81%, while high- and low-income countries account for 15% and 4%, respectively. Globally, men die more than women in terms of gender and age, with 57% of men, 43% of women, and a higher number of deaths among older people.
"Excess deaths" data are an important measure of understanding the impact of the pandemic. Samira Asma, WHO Assistant Director-General for Data, Analysis and Delivery, said the true extent of "excess deaths" is often hidden due to limited investment in data systems in many countries. The current latest estimates are based on the use of the best available data, sound methodologies and transparent methods.
"These indicators provide a more comprehensive picture of the extent of the pandemic and can be used to guide and implement public health policies." When we underestimate mortality, it can lead to underinvestment and intervention in the health care system. Samira Asma said.
The report shows that the proportion of "excess deaths" relative to the total population in a number of high-income countries is higher than the global average, including the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and so on.
In the United States, for example, according to WHO data, the number of "excess deaths" in the United States exceeded 930,000 from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to 31 December 2021, compared with 820,000 deaths at Johns Hopkins University in the same period.
Some medical experts say that the new crown pneumonia may exacerbate existing health problems, and the epidemic will have a significant knock-on impact on the health care system and other aspects of society. Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that most of the "excess deaths" are caused by the new crown virus. At the same time, during the two-year-long pandemic, the number of people dying from heart disease, high blood pressure, dementia and other diseases in the United States has also surged significantly. The data also shows that since the outbreak, the number of deaths from ischemic heart disease in the United States is nearly 30,000 higher than expected, and the number of deaths from hypertensive disease is nearly 62,000 higher than expected.
On the other hand, WHO notes that countries with low "excess mortality rates" include China, which implements "dynamic zeroing", and Australia, Japan and Norway, which have strict travel restrictions.
The data is thought-provoking. "This not only shows the impact of the pandemic, but also the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health systems to sustain essential health services, including stronger health information systems, during crises." WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
The risk of a pandemic remains severe, with COVID-19 cases rising again in many countries in the United States and Europe
"The number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the United States is on the rise." On May 6, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a weekly report saying that in the week ending May 5, the average number of new cases in the United States was about 67,000 per day, and the cumulative number of deaths is expected to exceed 1 million soon.
The number of new confirmed cases of covid-19 in children in the United States has also seen an "upward tide". According to the latest report released by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Association of Children's Hospitals, nearly 13 million children in the United States have been confirmed to be infected with the new crown virus since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, and since the beginning of this year alone, there have been more than 5 million new confirmed cases of children in the United States.
The long-term impact of COVID-19 on children remains unknown, and the American Academy of Pediatrics says there is an urgent need to collect more outbreak data for all ages to assess the severity of the disease caused by the mutation and the long-term potential impact on children's health.
The raging epidemic has put the lives of special groups such as the elderly and children in difficulty. The US media recently disclosed that more than 200,000 children in the United States have died in the new crown epidemic due to their parents or other guardians, and unfortunately they have become "new crown orphans". These children face psychological, physical and even survival difficulties, but they do not get the help they deserve.
Given the decline in vaccine protection, the decline in human immunity brought about by infection, and the increase in mutated viruses, the United States may continue to fall into a vicious circle of repeated outbreaks. ABC reported on May 6 that a senior U.S. government official said that according to model calculations, as many as 100 million Americans may be infected with the new crown in the three to four months of this autumn and winter.
For this prediction, Justin Reisler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina's Gillings School of Global Public Health, said: "The reality will be worse than the predictions we made in the simulation of the COVID-19 environment." ”
As southern Africa approaches winter, the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa has recently rebounded. The situation of prevention and control in several neighboring countries of South Africa and some countries in central and eastern Africa is also not optimistic. According to the latest weekly outbreak report released by the WHO Regional Office for Africa, as of the week before 1 May, there were 37,741 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in africa, an increase of 20% over the previous week, of which 32,852 cases came from South Africa.
"The COVID-19 pandemic is just entering a new phase, far from over." In an interview with Cyprus Radio radio on May 4, Stella Kiryakitis, the European Commission's commissioner for health and food safety, said EU member states must not be complacent in their response to the outbreak and warned that there is always a danger of a new outbreak.
Kyriakids mentioned in an interview that most EU countries have cancelled or relaxed epidemic prevention and control measures, but there are still 90 million people in EU countries who have not been vaccinated, and many people are hesitant to get a third dose of the vaccine, which is at risk of contracting the new crown and spreading a new round of the epidemic, and the European Commission is worried.
The Omiljung strain is still mutating, "as severely" as other variants in terms of pathogenicity.
At present, the Omikejung strain is still the mainstream mutant strain that is popular worldwide. On 27 April, WHO released its weekly COVID-19 report, showing that 99.7% of the more than 250,000 coronavirus sequences uploaded to the global influenza shared database in the past 30 days were Omilon.
Disturbingly, the Omiljun strain is still mutating. At a news conference in Geneva on May 4, Tedros said that ba.4 and BA.5, two subtypes of the Omiljun strain, were responsible for the recent surge in cases in South Africa.
Professor Turio Oliveira, a virologist at the University of KwaZulu Natal in South Africa, said on social media that BA.4 and BA.5 appeared to be more contagious than BA.2, two new variants that "mutate in the spectrum that allows the virus to evade immunity".
Why did the Omikeron strain evolve such a "variety" of subtype variants? WHO experts pointed out that the genetic diversity of Omi kerong indicates that the new crown virus continues to face pressures of natural selection in an attempt to adapt to its host and environment.
Previously, it was believed that the Omiljun strain was more contagious than other variants, but less severe. However, a Reuters report on May 6 pointed out that according to a 130,000-person study in the United States, the New Coronavirus Semikron variant is "as serious" as the previous variants in terms of pathogenicity.
The study, which is based on the medical records of 130,000 COVID-19 patients, added factors such as vaccination rates and statistical integrity to the calculation process as impact indices, and found that hospitalization rates and mortality rates for COVID-19 infections at various periods of the two years when different strains of COVID-19 were dominant worldwide were almost the same. The study is still in the peer review phase.
"For a lot of people, it's not a mild infection at all." Herba Mustafa, from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, stressed that "people infected with Aumicron who need hospitalization face a critical risk comparable to that of patients infected with the Delta strain." ”
There is no doubt that there will be a need for continuous surveillance of the new coronavirus variant in the future. Wendy Barkley, a virologist at Imperial College London in the United Kingdom, recently said that her view is negative about whether the future trend of new coronavirus mutation must be "continuously weakened". In addition to common mutations, the new coronavirus also evolves rapidly through recombination. If one Semicon variant recombines with another NEO strain, it is possible to produce strains that both immune escape and cause more serious disease.
"If these emerging variants can signal a milder direction for the virus, that's good news, but biology tells us that's not going to be the case forever." Barkley said.
The sequelae of "lying flat" have gradually emerged, and rapid and accurate "dynamic zeroing" is the best choice based on the epidemic situation in the mainland at this stage
While the new crown virus is still raging around the world, some countries have chosen to gradually relax epidemic prevention measures. At present, the sequelae of this model have gradually emerged. Public health experts around the world have called for "rebuilding public health measures, rather than letting the public take the risks themselves."
"Lying flat" does not make people achieve once and for all. In the case of the United Kingdom, which announced its "Coexistence with COVID-19" plan in late February, its healthcare system is under unprecedented pressure. The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that around 1 in 13 Britons are diagnosed.
"Hospitals, schools and businesses have found that one in ten people are sick and it is difficult to function properly." Danny Altman, a well-known British immunologist, said. Studies have shown that one in five COVID-19 hospitalized patients still can't work after 5 months; the number of people who don't have a job or are looking for a job due to long-term poor health has increased by 200,000.
Can "lying flat" save the economy? On the contrary, according to the British "Guardian", the US economy fell by about 0.35% in the first quarter of this year, and soaring inflation, the Opickron variant and supply chain problems have all dragged down economic growth. In the first quarter of this year, GDP in the eurozone's 19 member states grew by 0.2 percent, compared with 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. The French economy stagnated in the first quarter, and Italy's economic output even contracted.
Scientific data suggests that The Emilion is far more transmissive than the flu and other variants of the new coronavirus before. From the perspective of case fatality rate, the average case fatality rate of influenza worldwide is 0.1%, while the average case fatality rate of the Omikejong variant is about 0.75%, which is 7 to 8 times that of influenza, and the case fatality rate of the elderly population, especially the elderly over 80 years old, is more than 10%, which is nearly 100 times that of ordinary influenza.
"We have a huge elderly population in China, and so many children and immunodeficient people, and the vaccination rate is not up to the point where it is enough to form this immune barrier against severe illness and death." In this case, once relaxed, the virus is sure to spread widely. A large number of infected people, multiplied by the severe illness rate and the case fatality rate, will undoubtedly cause many severe cases and deaths. For a country and a nation, it will be a huge disaster. Liang Wannian, head of the expert group of the National Health Commission's leading group for epidemic response and handling, said.
On the other hand, the emergence of a large number of severe diseases will also in turn run the medical system, which will inevitably cause normal medical service needs to be unsatisfied, form a vicious circle, and eventually widely affect people's normal production and life.
Facts show that china's "dynamic zeroing" is by far the best approach.
Persistence is victory, persistence will win, persistence will be victorious. The rapid and accurate "dynamic zero clearance" is the best choice at this stage based on the current epidemic situation in the mainland. Strictly and quickly implement prevention and control measures to every link, and continuously improve the level of scientific and accurate prevention and control, we will certainly be able to achieve the greatest prevention and control effect at the minimum cost and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.
Source: Website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission