Text: Yuwa population
Guide
Population is related to the prosperity of the country and the well-being of the people, and together with capital and technology determine the potential growth rate of the economy. Demographic factors change slowly for most of the time, but change accelerates during transition periods. The current Chinese factor has changed from a slow variable to a fast variable. The global population is facing major changes unprecedented in a thousand years, and the period of population explosion is drawing to a close.
Core ideas
Data description: The United Nations has continuously revised population estimates and projections through newly obtained data, and in recent years the version has gradually lowered the world population forecast, but it still tends to be overestimated compared with the forecasts of organizations such as the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Institute of Health Indicators and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington School of Medicine. Historical data estimation bias, projection method limitations, population issues and other issues have made the United Nations population projections inaccurate, but considering that the population data provided by the United Nations covers many countries, and includes fertility, death, migration and other data, this report mainly refers to the historical estimates of the United Nations Population Division to analyze the world population situation, and the future forecasts will be combined with the relevant forecasts of IIASA and IHME.
1) Total: High growth turns to low growth, and the population center of gravity gradually shifts south. The United Nations World Population Prospects 2019 has 9 projections of population size, of which the medium program, momentum program, fixed mortality plan and low plan predict that the world population will peak at 10.9 billion, 9.32 billion, 9.51 billion and 8.92 billion people in 2100, 2074, 2066 and 2054, respectively. The IIASA and IHME medium programs predict that the world's population will peak at 9.68 billion in 2070 and 9.73 billion in 2061, respectively.
2) Fertility: Due to compensatory fertility after World War II, the world's total fertility rate entered a downward channel after a brief rise in 1950, and the decline in the world's total fertility rate slowed down after the 21st century, and the changes in fertility levels in various regions were differentiated, and Europe was the only region with positive fertility growth in total fertility. The total fertility rates in Africa and islamic countries are 4.3 and 3.6, respectively, and the total population of Africa in 2100 is projected to be 58.6% according to constant fertility levels. China's total fertility rate is at a low level in the world. The main reasons for the low global fertility rate at this stage are the fading of utilitarian fertility, the weakening of the fertility base, and the rising opportunity and direct costs of fertility.
3) Structure: Asia is influenced by the logic of "patrilineal descent", with the highest sex ratio between men and women, and Europe has the lowest sex ratio affected by World War II, which has not yet been restored to balance; the aging level has accelerated, and the world's population structure will change from adolescent to middle-aged and elderly. Japan, Italy and other 21 countries have entered the "super aging", China is facing the accelerated aging, "before the rich first old" challenge.
4) Immigration: More than 60% of international immigrants are in Eurasia, the United States is the largest immigrant country, receiving nearly 20% of immigrants, and India is the largest emigration.
5) Urbanization: At present, it has entered a stage of deceleration growth, and Asia and Africa will become the main force of urbanization in the next 30 years, providing more than 80% of the new urban population.
6) Income distribution: The degree of global distribution inequality has intensified, and the loose currency during the epidemic has aggravated the uneven distribution of wealth, with 12.2% of the world's population having more than 80% of wealth in 2020, and adjusting income distribution has become an important public policy option in various countries.
directory
1 Data description
1.1 Projections of the world's and countries' populations by different organizations
1.2 The estimation bias of historical data, the limitation of forecasting methods, and the cognitive bias of population problems all make the population prediction results inaccurate
2 Total: The world's population has changed from high to low growth, and the center of gravity has gradually shifted southward
2.1 Trend: High growth turns to low growth, and the world population may peak before 2100
2.2 Subregion: The population center of gravity is gradually shifting southward
3 Fertility: The total fertility rate of more than 40% of countries is below the replacement level, and "fewer children" and "late childbearing" have become trends
3.1 Fertility: The world's total fertility rate began to decline rapidly in the 1960s and slowed down in the 21st century
3.2 Subregion: China's total fertility rate is at a low level in the world and has been hovering at a low level since the 21st century
3.3 Influencing factors: fading of utilitarian fertility intentions, weakening of fertility bases, fertility cost constraints, cultural and religious differences
4 Structure: The sex ratio between men and women in the world is gradually increasing, and aging is accelerating
4.1 Gender: The increase in the number of male newborns has led to an increase in the proportion of males in the world's population, with the highest sex ratio in Asia, with the male proportion remaining above 51%.
4.2 Age: The aging of the world's population is accelerating, and 21 countries, including Japan and Italy, have entered the "super aging"
5 Immigrants: More than 60% of international migrants are in Eurasia, with the United States being the largest country of immigration
5.1 International migrant stock: more than 60% of immigrants are in Europe and Asia, Oceania and North America are immigrant continents, accounting for more than 15% of the total population
5.2 International migration flows: The United States and India are the largest immigrants who move in and out of the country respectively
5.3 The economic and cultural impact of migration on inbound and outbound migration
6 Urbanization: Entering a phase of deceleration and growth, Asia and Africa will become the main force of urbanization in the next 30 years
6.1 Urbanization process: It is expected that by 2050, 2/3 of the world's urban population will be concentrated in large cities
6.2 Urbanization and economic development promote each other, with urbanization lagging behind economic development in Asia and Africa lagging ahead of economic development
7 Income distribution: Global inequality has increased, with 12.2% of the population owning more than 80% of the wealth
7.1 Income and Wealth Distribution Process: From Intensification, Improvement to Exacerbation
7.2 Excessive currency issuance, a decline in the share of labour income, and income distribution systems and mechanisms are the main causes of the gap between the rich and the poor
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1 Data description
1.1 Projections of the world's and countries' populations by different organizations
Population projection data is the basic data needed by various countries and regions in the world to formulate macro-strategic development plans such as population, economic and social development. Whether it is the adjustment of population advocated by Plato in the Republic, or the controversy between the hundred sons and hundreds of families about "big countries and people" or the "small countries and widows" advocated by Lao Tzu, countries around the world have never stopped forecasting and planning and regulating population at the strategic level. In recent years, the contradiction between population and resources, the deepening of population aging and other issues continue to emerge, how to make an accurate judgment on the future trend of population change is not only the focus of research in the field of demography, but also related to the future population development strategy and the fundamental plan of social and economic development of all countries in the world. In this context, a number of international organizations or research institutions make projections of the world's population based on different forecasting methods, and when predicting changes in fertility and population numbers in the coming decades or even more, it is inevitable that there will be heated debates.
The United Nations through newly obtained data to continue to revise the population estimates and projections, in recent years the "World Population Prospects" lowered the world population projections, but compared with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the University of Washington School of Medicine Health Indicators and Evaluation Institute (IHME) and other organizations of the forecast, still tend to overestimate, the latest United Nations medium program predicts that the global population will peak at the end of this century 10.9 billion, IIASA, The IHME program predicts that the world's population will peak at 9.68 billion and 9.73 billion people in 2070 and 2061, respectively. The United Nations Population Division has been revising the population projections of countries since 1963 every five years (in 1980 to every two years) and has now been updated to the World Population Prospects 2019 (WPP2019), including population estimates and projections for 235 countries and territories for 1950-2100, with the new version of the projections to be released in May 2022. The 2015 and 2017 versions of the WPP's medium plan predict that the world population will be 11.21 billion and 11.18 billion people by 2100, respectively, and the 2019 version continues to lower the global population forecast, believing that the world population will peak at about 10.88 billion people by the end of this century. In recent years, some teams have tried to optimize for population projections. For example, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has been independently predicting the world's population since 2014. The Plan predicts that the world's population will peak at 9.38 billion around 2070, fall to 8.95 billion by the end of the century, and raise the peak to 9.68 billion in 2018; the Population Projection of the Institute of Health Indicators and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine in the United States believes that the global population will peak at 9.73 billion people in 2061, then begin to decline, and fall to 8.79 billion people in 2100.
Judging from the predictions of various organizations on Chinese populations, the United Nations has raised its forecasts for Chinese in recent years, and compared with IIASA, IHME and other organizations tend to overestimate Chinese. The United Nations 2015, 2017 and 2019 editions of the WPP plan predict that the Chinese will peak at 1.42 billion, 1.44 billion and 1.46 billion people in 2028, 2029 and 2031, respectively, and the peak population of each edition will be raised by about 20 million. IIASA and IHME are predicted to peak Chinese at 1.43 billion and 1.43 billion people around 2025 and 2024, respectively, which is lower than the forecast of the United Nations.
1.2 The estimation bias of historical data, the limitation of forecasting methods, and the cognitive bias of population problems all make the population prediction results inaccurate
Population forecast deviation is mainly due to the inaccuracy of historical data estimates and the limitations of forecasting methods, the key to predicting the population lies in the projection of the total fertility rate, the United Nations did not take into account the changes in the level of education when forecasting the total fertility rate, which greatly reduced the forecast results, and its prediction of the world's total fertility rate reached a replacement level around 2065 (2.1), later than other institutions; from the perspective of the number of Chinese, on the one hand, the United Nations overestimated China's past total fertility rate in 1960, 2000 and 2020 by 37.3%, respectively. 32.8%, 30%, on the other hand, the United Nations forecasts the total fertility rate of China in the future by about 20% higher than other organizations, making it Chinese overestimated. First, estimation biases in historical data can directly affect the accuracy of future projections, potentially overestimating the population. The population data for 1950-2020 in the World Population Prospects 2019 are directly from national statistical offices, about half of which do not have official demographic data, and the United Nations needs to estimate the data that is difficult to obtain, and the accuracy of the estimation of historical data directly affects the accuracy of future projections. Second, forecasting methods affect the accuracy of projections, and overestimating fertility makes them overestimate populations. The United Nations Population Projection uses the Bayesian stratified model method to model the fertility, death and migration parameters of past countries based on population transition theory, establishes the probability distribution of each parameter, and infers the future trajectory according to the stage of population transition and historical change trajectory of different countries. The key to predicting the population lies in the prediction of fertility, the United Nations fertility level prediction is based on the theory of fertility transformation, using a Bayesian stratification model and taking into account the age factor to make predictions about future fertility; the IIASA team population projection takes into account the education level factor in addition to the age factor, and according to the opinions of more than 550 population experts, the future fertility rate and other variables in different parts of the world are hypothesized; the IHME team included the education level and contraceptive use as the two drivers of fertility into the prediction. And refer to the requirements of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals to simulate future fertility levels. From the perspective of world population projections, the United Nations, IIASA and IMHE predict that the time for the world's total fertility rate to achieve replacement levels is about 2065, 2040 and 2030, respectively. According to the historical estimates of China's total fertility rate by the United Nations, the total fertility rates estimated by the United Nations in China in 1960, 2000 and 2020 are 5.48, 1.62 and 1.69, respectively, while according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, they are 3.99, 1.22 and 1.3, which are overestimated by 37.3%, 32.8% and 30% respectively. An average overestimation of the fertility rate of 30 per cent means that the number of births for the next generation is overestimated by 30 per cent, the number of births two generations later is overestimated by 69 per cent and the number of births born three generations later is more than doubled. From the perspective of the future projections of the Total Fertility Rate of the United Nations in China, the United Nations Central Programme predicts that China's total fertility rates in 2025, 2030 and 2035 are 1.7, 1.72 and 1.73, respectively, which will gradually increase, while IIASA forecasts are 1.4, and IHME forecasts are 1.44, 1.42 and 1.42, which are gradually decreasing, which shows that the United Nations has an overestimation of China's fertility level.
The perception of population issues and the actual bias can also lead to inaccurate population projections, and the United Nations Population Fund will work to reduce fertility levels in developing countries in the form of development, environment, women's rights, etc., so there is a tendency to overestimate population forecasts. The United Nations Population Division, in cooperation with the United Nations system and other agencies, such as agencies and funds, implements the population work programme, of which the United Nations Population Fund is the agency for action and was established to control the populations of developing countries. The idea of population control can be traced back to Malthus. In 1798, the British economist and demographer Malthus's "Principle of Population" believed that the population increased geometrically, the means of subsistence increased in an arithmetic progression, and in order to avoid famine, war, plague, etc. as a way to solve the contradiction between population and food, it was necessary to control the population. From 1820 to 1913, as economic and health conditions improved, the proportion of the Population of European descent increased from 23.7% to 33.9%, during which time European, American and Russian powers rapidly gained global dominance through overseas colonization or land expansion. After World War I, the growth momentum of the European population reversed, and in 1921 the Harvard historian Stoddard predicted that the population growth of other ethnic groups would surpass that of Europeans. In the 1950s, the United States, fearing a rapid increase in the population of Asia, began to pay attention to the demographic situation of these countries. In 1959, a report led by General Draper evaluating U.S. military aid recommended that the U.S. government play a role in reducing population growth in developing countries. In 1965, Draper et al. set up the "Population Crisis Committee" in Washington, D.C., to encourage the U.S. government to intervene in population control programs in developing countries, later renamed Population Action International (PAI), which is still in operation, and its promotion of birth control economics states that birth control is beneficial to the United States, and for every $1 invested in family planning, the United States will save twice as much money for other development projects. In 1967, the United Nations proposed the establishment of a fund to address population growth. In 1969, U.S. President Richard Nixon called on the United Nations to play a leading role in population issues, and in the same year the United Nations Population Fund was established to call for the realization of reproductive rights for all and the needs of women to be given birth control. In 1972, the American environmentalist Meadows submitted a report to the "Roman Club" of 70 scholars from the West, "The Limits of Growth", arguing that the industrial economy would collapse due to population growth, food shortages, resource depletion and increased pollution. Until the 1980s, the theory of endogenous economic growth was widely accepted by the economic community, which held that labor in the production process was the source of human resources and even technological innovation and progress that constantly accumulated skills. As people's understanding of the relationship between population and development becomes more profound, the trend of population control has gradually declined. We cannot attribute the United Nations overestimation solely to its perception of population issues, but it helps us to gain a deeper understanding of the international context at the time.
With the development of population science and statistical science, population prediction is still a difficult point. In terms of data, the UN data has limitations, but it provides historical and future projections of the population of more than 200 countries or regions, and includes data on births, deaths, and migration, which is more comprehensive. This report mainly analyzes the world population situation with reference to the historical estimates of the United Nations Population Division, and future projections will be combined with relevant projections of IIASA and IHME.
2 Total: The world's population has changed from high to low growth, and the center of gravity has gradually shifted southward
2.1 Trend: High growth turns to low growth, and the world population may peak before 2100
Since the first year of the Common Era, the world's population has experienced a low growth stage of high birth rate and high mortality rate, a high growth stage of high birth rate and low mortality rate and a transition stage from high growth to low growth, with a total world population of about 7.79 billion in 2020.
1) A.D. - 1770: A period of low growth with high birth rate and high mortality rate. The number of the world's population slowly increased from less than 200 million to 800 million, the average annual growth rate was less than 1 ‰, limited by economic and medical conditions, the average life expectancy of human beings was low, but the lack of reliable data, according to historians, before 1400 years, the average life expectancy of Europeans was less than 50 years, and the average life expectancy of Chinese in the Qing Dynasty was only 33 years.
2) 1770-2000: High growth period with high birth rate and low mortality rate. From 1770 to 1950, the population increased rapidly from 800 million to 2.5 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 6.4 ‰, and from 1950 to 2000, the population increased from 2.5 billion to 6.1 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 18 ‰. From the perspective of mortality, the post-industrial revolution economic prosperity and technological progress have led to improvements in living and medical conditions, and the mortality rate has been greatly reduced, from 19.1 ‰ to 8.5 ‰ in 1950-2000, infant mortality from 14% to 4.9%, and human life expectancy from 45 years (male) and 48 years (female) in 1950 to 65 years (male) and 69 years (female) in 2000. From the perspective of the birth rate, the crude birth rate fell from 36.9 per thousand to 21.0 per thousand in 1950-2000, maintaining a high level.
3) Since 2000: The transition from high to low growth. From 2000 to 2020, the world's total population increased from 6.1 billion to 7.8 billion, the average annual growth rate fell to 12 ‰, the crude mortality rate remained at a low level of about 8 ‰, with the improvement of economic development and health level, the infant mortality rate has dropped to a very low level of 2.9%, but people's willingness to have children has declined, and the gross birth rate has dropped from 21.0 ‰ to 18.5 ‰. The United Nations World Population Prospects 2019 has 9 projections of population size, of which the medium program, momentum program, fixed mortality plan and low plan predict that the world population will peak at 10.9 billion, 9.32 billion, 9.51 billion and 8.92 billion people in 2100, 2074, 2066 and 2054, respectively. The IIASA and IHME medium programs predict that the world's population will peak at 9.68 billion in 2070 and 9.73 billion in 2061, respectively.
2.2 Subregion: The population center of gravity is gradually shifting southward
From a sub-regional point of view, before the 21st century, the world's population was mainly concentrated in Asia and Europe, after which the population center of gravity gradually shifted south; from 1950 to 2020, Asia was the world's main population growth pole, accounting for 61.5%; according to the United Nations "World Population Prospects 2019" program, more than 90% of the world population increase from 2020 to 2100 was predicted to be in Africa.
From the perspective of population proportion, in 1950, the population of Asia and Europe accounted for 55.4% and 21.7% of the world's population, respectively, and 8 of the world's top ten most populous countries were in Eurasia, and Africa accounted for only 9% of the population. After the 21st century, developed countries in Europe and the United States have entered a low growth stage, with the gross birth rate and mortality rate of the population being less than 13 ‰, while Africa is in a high growth stage, and the world population pattern has been reshuffled. In 2020, 59.5% of the world's population will gather in Asia, the proportion of The European population will drop to 9.6%, the proportion of Africa will rise to 17.2%, the African country of Nigeria will become the seventh most populous country, and Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and Japan will withdraw from the top ten countries in terms of population.
From the perspective of population growth, before 2020, Asia is the world's main population growth pole, and from 1950 to 2020, Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania will contribute 21.2%, 61.5%, 3.8%, 9.2%, 3.7% and 0.6% of the world's population increase, respectively.
From the forecast data, according to the United Nations "World Population Prospects 2019" program prediction, 2020-2100 Africa, Asia's total population proportion will change from 17.2%, 59.5% to 39.4%, 43.4%, if according to the constant fertility rate forecast, the total population of Africa and Asia in 2100 will account for 58.6%, 31.8%, more than half of the world's population will be concentrated in Africa; from the perspective of population growth, Africa will be the world's main population growth pole after 2020. According to the United Nations Central Programme, Africa is projected to contribute 95.4 per cent of the world's population growth in 2020-2100.
Specific countries, the 10 countries with the largest annual population decline in the world from 2015 to 2020 are Venezuela, Japan, Syria and Ukraine and other 7 European countries, Japan and southern European countries are facing a "low fertility trap", the natural growth rate of the population is low, while Venezuela and Syria are due to poverty, war caused by population outflow, low birth rate of Eastern European countries superimposed on the outflow to Western Europe, North America and other regions, the total population showed negative growth. At present, about 21 countries are facing natural negative population growth, including developed countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, of which German immigrants support the total population to maintain a growth trend, and the total population of Japan and Italy is negative. According to the United Nations, the Chinese in 2020 was 1.44 billion (1.41 billion in the Qipu data), accounting for 31% of Asia and 18.5% of the world. According to the constant fertility rate projection, by 2030, 2050 and 2100, China's total population will be 14.6, 1.39 billion and 990 million, accounting for 29.2%, 25% and 14.5% of Asia, and 16.9%, 13.2% and 4.6% of the world. According to the 1.3 forecast estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of Chinese in 2100 will drop to less than 700 million, and the population advantage will decline.
Japan's fertility rate has been sluggish for a long time, the world's smallest number of children and the most serious aging country, the population problem has risen to "national difficulties", the economy has fallen into the "lost thirty years"; the United States is prosperous because of people, the population boosts the US economy to take off, the United States entered a low natural growth stage in the 1960s, immigration supports the population to maintain a stable growth rate, but as the largest immigrant receiving country, racial problems still exist; in the past 70 years, India and the United States have been the top three countries in the world's population, and India will surpass China to become the most populous country in 10 years. (Refer to "Zeping Macro", "Chinese Report", "Us Population Report", "Japan Population Report", "German Population Report", etc.)
3 Fertility: The total fertility rate of more than 40% of countries is below the replacement level, and "fewer children" and "late childbearing" have become trends
3.1 Fertility: The world's total fertility rate began to decline rapidly in the 1960s and slowed down in the 21st century
Due to the impact of compensatory fertility after World War II, the world's total fertility rate rose briefly from the 1930s to the 1950s, and then entered a rapid decline in the 30 years, and after the 21st century, the decline in the world's total fertility rate slowed down, and the changes in fertility levels in various regions diverged.
1) From the 1930s to the 1950s, "compensatory childbirth after World War II" appeared in most developed areas. The total fertility rate in the world remained at about 5, and the average total fertility rate in most countries in Western Europe and Northern Europe rose to above the replacement level, reaching 2.7; the total fertility rate in developed countries in North America and Oceania reached 3.7; and the fertility level in the socialist countries of Eastern Europe also rebounded, because it occurred after World War II, so it was called "compensatory fertility after World War II".
2) Fertility rates fell sharply around the world from the 1960s to the 1990s, with Europe and North America falling below replacement levels and other regions still above replacement levels. From the perspective of fertility level, the total fertility rate in the world has dropped from 5 to 2.7, of which the total fertility rate in Africa has dropped from 6.7 to 5.3, which is still at a high level, Europe and North America have dropped from 2.6 and 3.5 to 1.4 and 2.0 respectively, all below the replacement level, and the total fertility rates in Asia, Latin America and Oceania have dropped from 5.7, 5.9 and 4.1 to 2.5, 2.7 and 2.5, respectively, which are still above the replacement level. From the perspective of changes in fertility levels, the total fertility rate in the world has fallen by nearly 50%, of which the total fertility rate in Asia and Latin America has fallen by more than 50%, 55.2% and 54.4% respectively; the total fertility rate in Europe and North America has dropped by between 40% and 50%, and the total fertility rate in Africa and Oceania has fallen by less than 40%, 21.2% and 39.6% respectively.
3) After the 21st century, the decline in the world's total fertility rate has slowed down, and the changes in fertility levels in various regions have tended to diverge, and Europe is the only region with positive total fertility growth, with a growth rate of 14.2%. In terms of fertility levels, the world's total fertility rate fell from 2.7 to 2.4, of which Latin America fell from 2.6 to 2, falling below the replacement level; Africa fell from 5.3 to 4.3, still above the replacement level; Asia fell from 2.5 to 2.1; North America and Oceania combined fertility fell to 1.7 and 2.3 after the first slight upward trend; and the total fertility rate in Europe increased from 1.4 to 1.6, but it is still below the replacement level. From the perspective of changes in fertility levels, the world's total fertility growth rate is -9.6%, of which latin America, Africa, Asia, North America, Oceania growth rates are -23.8%, -17.4%, -15.6%, -11.3%, -5.5%, only Europe's total fertility rate is positive growth, the growth rate is 14.2%.
3.2 Subregion: China's total fertility rate is at a low level in the world and has been hovering at a low level since the 21st century
In 2020, the total fertility rate of about 93 countries is below the replacement level, mainly including East Asian countries such as China and Japan and all European and North American countries, of which 21 countries are trapped in the "low fertility trap", and South Korea's total fertility rate is the lowest in the world. In 2020, the total fertility rate of 35 countries is higher than 4, of which 91% of the countries are from Africa; the total fertility rate of 93 countries is lower than the replacement level, accounting for 45.8%, mainly including East Asian countries such as China and Japan and all countries in Europe and North America, of which 21 countries such as South Korea and Singapore have entered the "low fertility trap" with a total fertility rate of less than 1.5.
Countries can be divided into five categories, based on the level of total fertility and the changes in fertility levels after the 21st century:
First, countries with a total fertility rate of about 1.3 and a slight increase, in Italy and Japan as an example, the total fertility rate after the 21st century is about 1.3, and the total fertility rate growth rate from 2000 to 2020 is about 3%;
Second, the total fertility rate is about 1.3, and then the countries that have risen sharply, taking Russia, Estonia and Germany as an example, the total fertility rate in 2000 was 1.24, 1.32, 1.35, respectively, and the total fertility rate increased by more than 19% from 2000 to 2020;
Third, the total fertility rate has been above 1.3, and the slight increase in the country, in France, the United Kingdom as an example, the total fertility rate has been above 1.5, and the increase is single digits;
Fourth, the total fertility rate has been above 1.3, and there has been a decline, taking the United States as an example, the total fertility rate in 2000 was 2.0, and the decline in 2000-2020 was 12.1%;
Fifth, the total fertility rate has been at a very low level, and the sharp decline in the countries, in south Korea, Singapore as an example, the total fertility rate is below 1.3, 2000-2020 decline of 19.7% and 15.9%, respectively.
China's total fertility rate is at a low level in the world and has been hovering at a low level since the 21st century. Generally speaking, the higher the level of economic development, the lower the fertility level, according to the United Nations data, the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-income, low-middle-income and low-income economies in 2015-2020 are 1.7, 1.9, 2.7 and 4.5, respectively. But China is the exception, with a combined fertility rate of 1.15 in 2021, lower than in high-income countries. With the rapid development of the economy, high housing prices, and rising education costs, China's child-rearing cost index has risen, reducing the relaxation effect of subsequent fertility policies, so that the total fertility rate has been hovering at a low level.
From the perspective of fertility policy, since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China has experienced a stage from encouraging fertility to controlling birth to relaxing fertility, and since the 1970s, China has begun to control birth, and reproductive rights have gradually shifted from the family to the hands of the government, and United Nations data show that From 1970 to 1995, China's total fertility rate fell from 5.8 to 1.5, down 74%. In recent years, the mainland has gradually relaxed its fertility policy, with a comprehensive two-child in 2016 and a comprehensive three-child in 2021, and the autonomy of birth has gradually returned to the family, but the effect of only relaxing the birth policy is not significant.
From the perspective of house prices, according to Numbeo data, in June 2021, the world's top ten high-price cities, China has accounted for nearly half, and the ratio of house price income in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen centers is 41, 32, 28, 32, respectively, much higher than New York, London, Tokyo's 7, 10, 10, Chinese urban households have a weak ability to pay house prices. (Refer to "Zeping Macro" "Comparison of Housing Prices in Global First-tier Cities")
From the perspective of education costs, according to the "2019 Domestic Family Education Investment Survey" released by 51job, 39% of the annual expenditure on education of children accounts for more than 20% of the annual income, and the younger the children, the higher the expenditure, while the OECD national welfare is high, and the average net childcare cost accounts for only 14% of the income. And China's unique college entrance examination system makes parents consume a lot of energy to accompany the exam, and the opportunity cost of childbirth is relatively higher. According to the "China Fertility Cost Report" released by Yuwa Population in 2022, among the 14 countries counted, China's dependency cost/per capita GDP is 6.9, which is higher than that of all countries except South Korea.
3.3 Influencing factors: fading of utilitarian fertility intentions, weakening of fertility bases, fertility cost constraints, cultural and religious differences
According to the changes in the leading factors driving the decline in fertility levels, we can divide the fertility level into four stages: 1) the high mortality driving stage, people need to compete with the high mortality rate, the total fertility rate is more than 6; 2) the mortality rate decline driving stage, people recognize that low fertility can also ensure the maximum return, the total fertility rate from more than 6 to about 3; 3) Utilitarian fertility regression stage, people's fertility behavior is closer to emotional needs, and pay attention to the quality of children, The total fertility rate has roughly decreased from 3 to about 2; 4) in the cost-constrained low fertility stage, the total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1, which is lower than the willing fertility level.
The total fertility rate of the world's population fell below 4.0 in 1977, below 3 in 1993 and 2.4 in 2020, with the United Nations forecasting that it will fall below the replacement level of 2.1 around 2065. According to the United Nations World Population Prospects 2019, even among people with very low total fertility rates, women expect to have two children on average, and at this stage, low fertility rates are shifting from mortality-driven to utilitarian fertility fading and cost constraints, and the weakening of the fertility base, the opportunity cost of childbearing and the rise of direct costs are the main reasons affecting fertility levels. (Refer to "Zeping Macro" "China Fertility Report")
1) The world is facing the trend of fewer marriages, late marriages, and late childbearing after marriage, while singleism, dink, and the increased acceptance of same-sex marriages and the popularity of contraceptives will also weaken the fertility base. Judging from the marriage rate, the marriage rate in various countries has shown an overall downward trend in recent years. In Asia, China's marriage rate peaked and fell in 2013, the rough marriage rate fell from 9.9‰ to 6.8‰ in 2013-2019, the marriage rate in Japan continued to decline in the past 20 years, and the crude marriage rate fell from 6.4‰ to 4.8‰ in 2001-2020; in Europe, the overall rough marriage rate has shown a downward trend since 1960, and it has begun to diverge in 2010, and the marriage rate in Nordic countries such as Sweden and Denmark, which have high female status and high welfare, has increased, while Italy, The marriage rate in southern European countries such as Spain continues to decline, with the rough marriage rate below 3.5 ‰ in 2019, lower than about 5 ‰ in Northern European countries. Marriage rates in the United States and Canada in the North American countries have declined since the 1970s, from 10.8 per thousand, 9 per thousand to 6.5 per thousand (2018) and 4.4 per thousand (2008). From the perspective of marriage age, the overall marriage age of various countries has risen in recent years, and the trend is more obvious in richer countries. OECD data show that from 1990 to 2019, the age of first marriage for women in Japan, Germany, Canada and Denmark rose from 25.6, 21.6, 25.2, 25.9 to 33.9, 29.4, 32 and 32.7 years old, and males rose from 28.4, 28.2, 27.6, 30.5 to 31.2, 34, 31.1 (2008) and 35.1 years. From the perspective of childbearing age, from 1950 to 2000, the world's average childbearing age fell from 29.2 years to 27.5 years; from 2000 to 2020, the world's average childbearing age rose to 28.1 years, and more and more women chose to have children later. In addition, singleism, dink and same-sex marriage are more accepted, contraceptive pills, etc. The popularity of contraceptives will also weaken the fertility base, according to the Pew Research Center, in 2020, 29 countries in the world have recognized same-sex marriage legal.
2) From the perspective of fertility costs, on the one hand, childbirth hinders women's human capital accumulation and career development, resulting in an increase in the opportunity cost of childbirth. In the era of "inner volume" of academic qualifications, women's education level has increased, and the proportion of female students enrolled in colleges and universities has increased from 8.2% to 41.7% from 1970 to 2019, technological progress has liberated manual labor, and more women can participate in the labor market, but gender inequality will affect the willingness to have children. OECD data shows that in 2018, the median income of full-time male employees in OECD countries was 12.8% higher than that of women, of which the gender gap between full-time employees in South Korea, a country with a very low fertility level, was as high as 34.1%, and in Japan, it was 23.5%, while the gender gap between full-time employees in Denmark and Sweden, where the total fertility rate rose to 1.8, was only 4.9% and 7.1%. OECD country data show that the smaller the difference in labor force participation rates between men and women, the higher the total fertility rate. On the other hand, the high cost of childcare inhibits fertility. Infant and young child care accounts for a large number of time costs and financial costs for families, OECD countries support fertility through the government's new childcare institutions and encourage the development of private childcare institutions, and in 2018, most OECD countries have a 0-2 age care rate between 10% and 60%, an average of 36.0%, and the higher the childcare rate, the higher the fertility level. At the same time, OECD countries also issue economic subsidies for childbirth. In 2017, most OECD countries spent between 1% and 4% of GDP, with France at 3.6%, the highest proportion. The proportion of household welfare expenditure is directly proportional to the fertility level, and the higher the proportion of household welfare expenditure, the higher the fertility level. Overall, the proportion of household welfare expenditure in Northern European countries is generally higher than that in southern Europe and other developed countries in Asia, and the fertility level is relatively high, with the total fertility rates of Northern Europe, Southern Europe and East Asia from 2015 to 2020 being 1.8, 1.4 and 1.7, respectively.
3) Marriage and childbearing culture and religion also affect fertility levels. East Asia believes in Confucian culture, the proportion of unmarried births is low, developed countries in Europe and the United States are more advocating freedom and openness, and the proportion of unmarried births is high; at the same time, the economic development level of Islamic countries is relatively low, and the fertility level is relatively high. From a cultural point of view, after World War II, developed countries in Europe and the United States are more advocating free choice for marriage and childbearing, "unmarried births" in European and American cultural circles are more accepted, and Western countries have also begun to protect the rights and interests of cohabitants outside of marriage when legislating, and non-marital births in North America and Europe accounted for more than 40% in 2019. East Asia has long been influenced by Confucian culture, the tradition of marriage concept, most countries in the unmarried birth is often banned or even spurned, the acceptance of unmarried birth is extremely low, in 2019, the Proportion of Hispanic Black, Hispanic White, Asian Non-marital Births in the United States was 70%, 28.2%, 11.7%, respectively, and Asians had the lowest proportion of non-marital births. From a religious point of view, the fertility rate in Islamic countries is higher than that in non-Islamic countries, with the average total fertility rate of Islamic countries in 2020 being about 3.6 and the average total fertility rate of non-Islamic countries being about 1.3. Islamic countries have a relatively low level of economic development, and women's educational attainment and labor force participation rates are low. According to World Bank data, fertility levels and per capita GDP are negatively correlated, with islamic countries having a higher tropic of return than East Asian countries, indicating that Islamic women's fertility levels are higher than those of East Asian countries at the same economic level.
4 Structure: The sex ratio between men and women in the world is gradually increasing, and aging is accelerating
4.1 Gender: The increase in the number of male newborns has led to an increase in the proportion of males in the world's population, with the highest sex ratio in Asia, with the male proportion remaining above 51%.
The sex ratio of the world population is on the rise, 101.7 in 2020, Asia is affected by the logic of "patrilineal origin", the idea of "son preference" still exists, and the sex ratio is the highest; Europe is affected by World War II, with more male casualties, the lowest sex ratio, and has not yet recovered balance. From 1950 to 1958, the number of males in the world was slightly less than that of women, and the sex ratio was between 99.6 and 100.0; from 1958 to 2008, the sex ratio rose from 100.0 to 101.7; and from 2008 to 2020, the sex ratio remained around 101.7. Between 1950 and 2020 there were 280 million more male births than women and 200 million more deaths among men than women, and the increase in the world sex ratio in recent years is due to the increase in the number of newborn males offsetting the negative impact of lower life expectancy.
From the perspective of continents, the male population in Asia and Oceania is more than that of women, of which the asian sex ratio is the highest, and the sex ratio remains at about 105 from 1950 to 2020, which is affected by the concepts of male lineage inheritance, son following the father's surname, "male outside, female inside"; the sex ratio in Oceania shows a downward trend, with a sex ratio of 100.2 in 2020. The male populations in Africa, Latin America and North America are slightly lower than those of women, with sex ratios of 99.9, 96.8 and 98.0 in 2020, respectively. The number of males in Europe is much lower than that of women, and the male casualties affected by World War II are more, with the European sex ratio of nearly 87.6 in 1950 and recovering to 93.4 in 2020, which has not yet been balanced. According to UN data, the proportion of Asian women in the National Assembly remains low, at 19.8 percent in 2021, well below the 28.3 percent and 31.8 percent in North America and Europe.
By country, the world's sex ratio of more than 110 Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and other 10 countries and regions, of which 6 in West Asia, 5 in the Middle East, oil countries rely on men for manual labor, the introduction of high proportion of male immigrants will also improve the overall sex ratio, the rest are distributed in South Asia and Africa. The 10 countries and regions with the lowest sex ratio include 5 European regions such as Latvia and Lithuania, 4 Latin American regions such as Martini and Nepal.
According to the 2021 Global Gender Gap Report released by the World Economic Forum, the gender gap in Western Europe and North America is the smallest, with more than 76% gender equality achieved, more than 70% in Latin America and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 68.9% in East Asia and the Pacific, and only 60.9% in the Middle East and North Africa. Overall, the global gender gap in education and health is small, with more than 95 per cent of the gap closed, but there is still a long way to go in terms of political participation and economic status.
4.2 Age: The aging of the world's population is accelerating, and 21 countries, including Japan and Italy, have entered the "super aging"
The world population began to enter the aging from 2005, after 2015, the aging process of the world population accelerated, the "demographic dividend" disappeared, the proportion of the elderly population increased from less than 0.1 percentage points per year to 0.2 percentage points, the proportion of the working-age population reached a peak of 65.6% and then began to decline, and it is expected that the proportion of the elderly population will reach 22.6% by the end of this century.
1) From 1950 to 1970, the proportion of children (under 15 years old) increased rapidly, from 34.3% to a peak of 37.5%, of which 68.7% of the new children's population came from Asia; the proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years old) decreased, from 60.6% to 57.2%; the proportion of the elderly population (over 65 years old) fluctuated between 5.0% and 5.3%.
2) From 1970 to 2015, the proportion of children's population fell to 26.2%; with the increasing age of the birth population from 1950 to 1970, the "demographic dividend" appeared, and the proportion of the working-age population increased to a peak of 65.6%, of which the "demographic dividend" in Asia was the most obvious, and 66.7% of the increase in the world's working-age population occurred in Asia at this stage; the proportion of the elderly population remained at a low level, slowly rising from 5.3% to 8.2%. With an annual growth rate of less than 0.1 percentage points, the world's population has entered an ageing phase.
3) After 2015, the age structure of the world population has undergone great changes, the aging has intensified, and the population structure will change from adolescent to middle-aged and elderly. From 2015 to 2020, the proportion of the elderly population increased from 8.2% to 9.3%, an annual increase of 0.2 percentage points. According to the projection of the United Nations China Program, the world population will enter the "deep aging" and "super aging" stages around 2040 and 2080 respectively; according to IIASA forecasts, it will enter the "deep aging" and "super aging" stages around 2040 and 2060, respectively.
Sub-regionally, Europe and North America have entered a deep aging phase, and Oceania, Asia and Latin America are expected to enter a deep aging phase after 2025. In 2020, the proportion of Africa's working-age population is only 56.1%, and as children gradually enter working age, Africa's demographic dividend will gradually appear. Africa has the lowest proportion of the elderly population, 3.5%, not entering the aging population; Asia, Latin America and Oceania account for 8.9%, 9.0% and 12.8% respectively, has entered the aging; North America and Europe have the most serious aging population, accounting for 16.8% and 19.1% of the elderly population, respectively, into the deep aging. According to the United Nations, Asia will age faster than Europe and North America.
By country, 21 countries such as Japan and Italy have entered the super aging stage, and 36 countries such as Spain have entered a stage of deep aging, most of which are developed countries in Western Europe; China is facing the problem of "getting rich before getting old" and is still in the window of population opportunities. Japan is the most aging country, the proportion of the elderly population as high as 28.4%, in addition to Japan, Italy, Portugal, Finland and other 21 countries accounted for more than 20% of the elderly population, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland and other 36 countries accounted for between 14% and 20%, into the "deep aging", mostly developed countries in Western Europe.
From the perspective of aging speed, Japan has taken 24 years from aging to deep aging, Germany has taken 40 years, France has taken 126 years, and China is expected to take only about 22 years; from deep aging to super aging, Japan has taken about 13 years, Germany has taken 36 years, and France has taken 28 years.
From the perspective of the proportion of the working-age population, the working-age population of developed countries Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and South Korea peaked in 1986, 1988, 1991, 1992, 2007, 2009, and 2013, respectively, and China and Brazil peaked in 2010 and 2018, respectively, but the per capita GDP at that time was much lower than that of developed countries.
From the perspective of dependency ratio, the population dependency ratios of Brazil, China and South Korea in developed countries in 2020 will be 43.5%, 42.2% and 39.5% respectively, which is still in the window of population opportunity.
Labor is the foundation of economic development, international experience shows that the growth rate of the working-age population and GDP growth rate to a certain extent is positively correlated, Japan with the peak of the working population, the demographic dividend disappeared, the economy fell into the "lost thirty years", South Korea's economic trend and labor population growth rate is basically the same. With the acceleration of the trend of aging and low birthrate, the vitality of social innovation will be limited, the social burden will increase, and the potential economic growth rate will decline.
5 Immigrants: More than 60% of international migrants are in Eurasia, with the United States being the largest country of immigration
5.1 International migrant stock: more than 60% of immigrants are in Europe and Asia, Oceania and North America are immigrant continents, accounting for more than 15% of the total population
In recent years, the stock of international migrants has gradually increased, and the proportion of migrant stocks increased from 2.3% to 3.6% from 1970 to 2020, of which more than 60% of the world's immigrants are in Europe and Asia, and the proportion of Asian immigrants has gradually increased in the past 20 years, and the proportion of European immigrants has declined; the proportion of immigrants in Oceania and North America in the total population is high, which is a continent of migration. From the perspective of total immigration, the global migration stock increased from 0.8 billion to 280 million in 1970-2020, accounting for 3.6% from 2.3%, on the one hand, thanks to the facilitation of transportation facilities and the development of transportation, on the other hand, due to the era of peacetime and economic globalization, cross-border investment and production brought about work migration. From the perspective of the structure of the migrant stock, the proportion of migrants of working age aged 20-64 increased from 69% to 73.2% from 1990 to 2020, and remained above 70% during the period. Due to the combination of instability and conflict, the proportion of refugees among international migrants in 2020 was 12%, a new high in nearly 20 years. From the perspective of migration distribution, in 2020, the proportion of immigrant stocks in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America and Oceania is 30.9%, 30.5%, 20.9%, 9%, 5.3%, 3.3%, more than 60% of the world's immigrant stock in Europe and Asia, 2000-2020, the proportion of Asian immigrant stock continues to rise, while Europe and North America gradually decline, Europe and North America implement stricter immigration policies, and the economic growth of Asian countries increases the "cost performance" of immigrants. From the perspective of the proportion of immigrants in the total population, Oceania and North America are the continents of migration, and the proportion of immigrants to the total population of each region in 2020 is 22% and 15.9%, respectively.
5.2 International migration flows: The United States and India are the largest immigrants who move in and out of the country respectively
International migrants are generally moving to high-income countries, with about 64 percent of migrants living in high-income areas by 2020; more than 50 million immigrants living in the United States, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's total migration; and more than 17 million migrants from India, with India being the largest emigrant. In terms of inbound and outbound migration, the largest immigration country is the United States, with 50.633 million international migrants living in the United States as of 2020, accounting for 19% of the total, followed by Germany and Saudi Arabia with 15.762 million and 13.455 million respectively; India is the largest source country of international migrants, with 17.87 million emigrants from India as of 2020. It was followed by Mexico, Russia and China with 11.186 million, 10.757 million and 10.461 million, respectively, with the largest migration routes tending to be from developing countries to more developed economies. From the perspective of net migration in the past five years, the top five net migrations in 2015-2020 are the United States, Germany, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and Canada, with net migration of 477.4, 271.9, 142, 1.303, and 1.21 million, and the top five net outflows are Venezuela, India, Syria, Bangladesh, and China, and the net migration is 326.6, 266.3, 213.7, 184.8, and 174.2 million, respectively.
5.3 The economic and cultural impact of migration on inbound and outbound migration
For countries of emigration, migrants can alleviate labor shortages, increase talent, and increase innovation, but there are problems of cultural integration; for emigrants, they can obtain remittances, issue bonds for expatriates, and receive direct investment from expatriates.
5.3.1 Countries of migration: alleviating labour shortages, increasing talent, and increasing innovation, but there are also problems of cultural integration
1) For countries of migration, migration is an important supplement to the labour force. First, immigrants can provide a supply of young labor to alleviate the pressure of aging. According to UN migration data, net migration from high-income countries accounted for 63.7% of the total population increase in 2015-2020, with a large number of laborers coming from immigrants and a younger age structure of migrants, with more than 60% of the world's migrant stock under 44 in 2020. Second, highly skilled immigrants can increase innovation. 25.8 percent of U.S. Nobel laureates in medicine, physics, and chemistry are international immigrants, and between 2006 and 2012, a quarter of newly founded U.S. engineering and technology companies were primarily founders immigrants. Third, immigrants also contribute culturally and politically. On the one hand, migration and population mobility promote the development of modern food systems and enrich domestic food culture. On the other hand, the contribution on the political side depends on the policy environment of each country. According to the United Nations World Migration Report 2020, there are five countries in the world that grant stateless immigrants the right to vote in national elections, namely Chile, Ecuador, Malawi, New Zealand and Uruguay, requiring residence ranging from 1-15 years, but in the Gulf countries there are many migrant workers who cannot seek workers' rights.
2) The introduction of low-quality immigrants in countries of migration can also be a drag on economic growth, with the financial contribution ratio of immigrants and local residents in OECD countries generally below 1. High-welfare states bear the welfare guarantees of immigrants, but it is difficult to recover financial returns that are equivalent to those of locals. The Report of the National Bank of Belgium shows that immigrants have a low financial contribution relative to locals due to the low employment rate of immigrants. According to OECD data, only Portugal has a financial contribution ratio of more than 1, and Estonia, Spain and Austria have a financial contribution ratio of less than 0.8. At the same time, the employment rate of immigrants is lower than that of locals, which will increase the unemployment rate of the overall population. Therefore, although immigration increases manpower, if the per capita output of immigrants is lower than that of native people, it will also drag down economic growth.
3) Immigration also poses the challenge of cultural conflict and integration, becoming a social governance issue. On the one hand, because of the long-term unfair treatment, immigrant groups are prone to revolt movements. Although the United States has received immigrants from Asia, Central and South America and Africa in recent years, minorities are still in a weak position in terms of political status, education, employment, etc., racial contradictions are prominent, according to the Pew Research Center survey data, in 2018, the United States eligible voters accounted for 67% of whites, black and Hispanics each accounted for 13%, Asians accounted for 4%. Racial contradictions in the United States originated from the black slave trade in the 15th century, although the Civil War achieved black liberation, but failed to fundamentally solve the social status of blacks, the United States successively appeared in the Los Angeles riots, "black lives are also life" movement and other anti-racial discrimination movements. On the other hand, immigrants increase the financial expenditure of the high-welfare state and squeeze out the employment opportunities of local citizens, which will cause an "anti-immigrant movement" among local people. Europe's high-welfare state attracts large numbers of migrants, rising from 6.9 percent in 1990 to 11.0 percent in 2019. Since 2015, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa has been turbulent, with a large number of refugees pouring into Europe, and the follow-up bad security incidents and terrorist attacks have threatened social stability and disrupted the order of economic activities. European natives believe that immigrants have low economic contribution and harm economic development, but they receive government financial subsidies, which harm the interests of local people, and will also produce anti-immigrant sentiment.
5.3.2 Emigration: Migrants contribute to the economies of the countries of origin through remittances, expatriate bonds and direct investment
Low- and middle-income countries, which are the main migrants, receive more than half of the world's remittances, and their remittance income in 2019 is more than double that of foreign direct investment. According to the World Bank, the global remittance income in 2019 totaled US$654.2 billion, of which remittance income from low- and middle-income countries was US$344.5 billion, accounting for 52.7% of the world. Low- and middle-income countries, where the majority of their populations have emigrated, receive far more remittances than their foreign direct investment, with foreign direct investment of about US$162.3 billion in 2019, less than half of their remittance income. At the same time, expatriate bonds are a lower-cost way to raise funds. The government can obtain preferential interest rate loans from foreign residents, while overseas citizens also have the opportunity to participate in the construction of the original country. Nigeria issued $300 million of expatriate bonds for infrastructure development in 2017, and Israel has financed more than $40 billion through expatriate bonds since 1951. Expatriates also provide direct investment and start-ups. About 17 per cent of private companies in Georgia are for the diaspora, whose entrepreneurial spirit contributes to the accumulation of physical capital and the increase in economic productivity in the countries of origin.
6 Urbanization: Entering a phase of deceleration and growth, Asia and Africa will become the main force of urbanization in the next 30 years
6.1 Urbanization process: It is expected that by 2050, 2/3 of the world's urban population will be concentrated in large cities
The world urbanization process is roughly divided into three stages, before 1950, the world's rural population accounted for more than 2/3, in 2007 the world urbanization rate reached 50%, the urban population began to exceed the countryside, the current world population urbanization process is in a deceleration stage, 2020 the world urbanization rate is about 56.2%.
1) Before 1950, more than two-thirds of the world's people lived in rural areas, of which the industrial revolution in the 1860s began in Britain, and gradually spread to Germany, the United States, France and other countries, driving the development of world urbanization, by 1950 the world urbanization rate reached 30%, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, France and other developed countries urbanization rates were 79%, 67.9%, 64.2%, 55.2%, basically achieved urbanization, while China, India and other developing countries urbanization rate is less than 20% ；
2) From 1950 to 2007, the world's urbanization was in a stage of accelerated development, the world's urban population grew rapidly, from 750 million to 3.36 billion people, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7%, the urbanization rate increased from 30% to 50%, the proportion of the world's urban population exceeded that of rural areas, the urbanization process in South Korea and Brazil was faster in this stage, the urbanization rate increased by 60 or 47 percentage points respectively, the urbanization rate in Japan and China increased by 35 and 33 percentage points respectively, and the urbanization process in the United Kingdom and Germany slowed down significantly;
3) At present, the urbanization of the world's population is in a deceleration stage, according to the United Nations "World Urbanization Outlook 2018" forecast, the urban population will increase from 3.36 billion to 6.68 billion in 2007-2050, the average annual growth rate will drop to 1.5%, and about two-thirds of the world's people will live in cities in 2050.
Sub-regionally, North America and Latin America have entered the late stage of urbanization, and the level of urbanization in Asia and Africa is lower than 56.2% of the global level, and it will become the main force of urbanization in the next 30 years, and it is expected to provide 87.7% of the new urban population. From a continental point of view, in 2020, the urbanization rates in North America and Latin America are higher, with urbanization rates of 82.6% and 81.2%, respectively, entering the late stage of urbanization; the urbanization rates in Europe and Oceania are 74.9% and 68.2%, respectively, and the degree of urbanization is also higher; the urbanization rates in Asia and Africa are 51.1% and 43.5%, respectively, and the degree of urbanization is lower than the global level of 56.2% in the stage of rapid urbanization. By country, in 2020, Japan's urbanization rate has exceeded 90%, the United Kingdom, the United States, South Korea and other countries also exceeded 80%, into the late stage of urbanization, developing countries China, India urbanization rate of 59.2% respectively (National Bureau of Statistics data 63.9%, more than 60% in 2017), 34%.
In the process of urbanization, the urban population is concentrated in large cities, and the proportion of the world's urban population of more than 10 million cities increases from 3% to 13% from 1950 to 2020, and the urban population of Germany and the United Kingdom in 2020 is mainly concentrated in small cities below 300,000, and the urban population of Japan is mainly concentrated in more than 10 million megacities.
In terms of the number of cities, in 1950, the world's population exceeded 10 million cities, only two in Japan, Tokyo and New York in the United States, 10 in 1990, and 29 cities with more than 10 million in 2020.
From the perspective of the proportion of urban population, the proportion of the world's urban population of more than 10 million people increased from 3% to 13% from 1950 to 2020, and the proportion of urban population below 300,000 decreased from 60% to 41%.
From the perspective of specific countries, the urban population of Germany and the United Kingdom is currently mainly concentrated in small cities, with the population of cities below 300,000 accounting for 73% and 54% respectively, and there are no cities with more than 10 million. The gap between infrastructure, job opportunities, social security and other conditions in Germany's large, medium, and small cities is small, and urbanization is manifested as "decentralization"; Japan's urban population is mainly concentrated in megacities, with 49% of the urban population of more than 10 million, while the population of cities below 300,000 accounts for only 20%.
From the perspective of the proportion of the population living in the largest cities, the proportion of the population of the world's largest cities fell slightly from 17.6% to 16.1% from 1960 to 2020.
Overall, the proportion of the population in the largest cities in the United States, Japan, South Korea and other places began to decline from the second half of the 19th century, but the population in the metropolitan area continued to gather, and from 1970 to 2020, the proportion of the population of Florida, Texas, California, increased from 18.6% to 29.1%, and the population of the Tokyo Circle increased from 23.3% to 29.3%.
6.2 Urbanization and economic development promote each other, with urbanization lagging behind economic development in Asia and Africa lagging ahead of economic development
The process of urbanization and economic development are closely related, and the role of the two is two-way.
On a continent-by-continent basis, the urbanization situation in North America and Oceania is in line with economic development, while the urbanization rate in Asia lags behind economic development and the urbanization in Africa leads economic development. According to the United Nations, when the urbanization rate is 30%, the per capita GDP of Africa and Asia is 799.4 US dollars, 1236.3 US dollars, when the urbanization rate reaches 50%, the per capita GDP of Latin America and Asia is 371.4 US dollars and 7042 US dollars, when the urbanization rate is 70%, the per capita GDP of Latin America, Oceania, North America and Europe is 2380.9, 2720.8, 2939.4 and 12411.5 US dollars, respectively.
By city, the urbanization process in the United States, South Korea, and France is synchronized with economic development, while China's urbanization development lags behind economic development, with a per capita GDP of about $10,000 when the urbanization rate reaches 60%, which is much higher than that of other countries. When the urbanization rate is 60%, the average GDP of Japan, Brazil, France, South Korea and Chinese is 475.3, 1004.1, 1334.7, 1992.5, 10500.4 US dollars, respectively, and when the urbanization rate is 70%, the per capita GDP of Japan, Brazil, France, the United States and South Korea is 1451.3, 1648.1, 2536.1, 3007.1 and 4748.6 US dollars, respectively.
From the perspective of urbanization nodes, the United States, France, Japan, Brazil, and South Korea reached 70% of the years in 1960, 1968, 1968, 1988, 1985, and 1988, respectively, from 60% to 70%, respectively, about 13 years, 10 years, 11 years, 11 years, and 6 years.
7 Income distribution: Global inequality has increased, with 12.2% of the population owning more than 80% of the wealth
7.1 Income and Wealth Distribution Process: From Intensification, Improvement to Exacerbation
The global inequality of income and wealth distribution has generally undergone a process of intensification, improvement and intensification, and the large-scale monetary easing after the epidemic in 2020 has aggravated the regional inequality of global wealth distribution, the rich are richer, and the poor are poorer.
From the perspective of income distribution, according to the World Wealth and Income Database, the concentration of income distribution in most of the world's economies peaked before World War II and then gradually weakened, but since the 1980s, the income distribution situation within the economies has not improved, but has worsened again, and has worsened faster than before. From 1981 to 2020, the income share of the top 1% of the world's income group increased by 19.3% from 16.9%, and the income gap continued to widen.
From the perspective of wealth distribution, the inequality of wealth distribution in 2020 has deepened, showing a trend of richer people getting richer and the poor poor, with 12.2% of the world's people holding 85% of the wealth. According to Credit Suisse's Global Wealth Report 2021, total global household wealth in March 2020 lost $17.5 trillion, or 4.4%, from January. But in the following half a year, large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus promoted the prosperity of the capital market, and household wealth grew rapidly, but the distribution was uneven.
From an interregional perspective, total social wealth in North America and Europe increased by 10.0% and 9.8% respectively in 2020; total social wealth in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) and China increased by 6.7% and 6.0% respectively; total wealth in Africa increased by only 0.7%, and India and Latin America grew negatively.
From the perspective of economies, economies have shown a K-shaped recovery, with some people struggling with the epidemic, while the wealth of those who hold real estate and financial assets has increased rapidly, with the rich getting richer and the poor poorer. According to Credit Suisse's Global Wealth Report 2021, 12.2% of the world's adult population will have 84.9% wealth in 2020, and the wealth gap is extremely large.
From the perspective of all countries, the income and wealth Gini coefficients of Japan and Italy have remained at a low level, and the income and wealth gap has been maintained at a low level through effective distribution and redistribution policies; the income Gini coefficient in the United States is not high, but the wealth Gini coefficient is high, and the environment of continuous quantitative easing has pushed up the value of financial assets, making the gap between the rich and the poor widen; India and other developing countries have fallen into the trap of income distribution, and the income and wealth Gini coefficients are high; China's current income and wealth Gini coefficients are in a reasonable range, and the imbalance is controllable. But it still needs to be improved. (Refer to "Zeping Macro" "China Income Distribution Report 2021")
7.2 Excessive currency issuance, a decline in the share of labour income, and income distribution systems and mechanisms are the main causes of the gap between the rich and the poor
First, the over-issuance of money will lead to the redistribution of wealth, which will easily aggravate the gap between the rich and the poor, and the over-issuance of money will flow into the market, which will cause inflation and the rise of generalized asset prices. On the one hand, inflation will squeeze the real income of residents, on the other hand, the inflow of funds into the capital market will spawn an asset bubble, and the wealth of people with a high proportion of real estate and financial assets in the asset allocation structure will increase rapidly, and the gap between rich and poor will increase. Real estate has both consumption attributes and financial attributes, house prices and money supply are closely related, according to BIS data, 1970-2021 in the first quarter, 23 economies local currency house price growth rate, local currency nominal GDP growth rate of 6.3%, 7.5%, excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, China Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient reached 0.87. Under the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the global central bank has massively eased, pushing up house prices and stock prices, and from 2020Q1 to 2021Q1, house prices in major economies around the world have risen by more than 7%, of which Turkey has risen by 32%, New Zealand has risen by more than 20%, nasdaq and S&P 500 have risen by more than 50%; the Shanghai Composite Index, the CSI 300, and the ChiNext Index have risen by 24%, 37% and 45% respectively.
Second, technological progress will increase the marginal productivity of capital (capital bias), so that the share of capital income rises and the share of labor income decreases, thereby widening the income gap between labor owners and capital owners, and thus increasing the gap between rich and poor.
Third, choices about efficiency and equity at different stages of development affect income distribution gaps. Since the founding of New China, China's income distribution system has changed from egalitarianism to distribution according to work and then to multi-factor distribution; the thinking has changed from attaching importance to equality, to giving priority to efficiency and taking into account fairness, to taking into account efficiency and fairness; the gap between the rich and the poor has gradually changed from being at a low level, to continuing to expanding, to easing.
Fourth, income distribution mechanisms affect income disparities. The income distribution system is divided into primary distribution, redistribution and tertiary distribution. The United States mainly through tax and social security redistributive adjustment, the income tax system is as the income level increases its marginal tax rate increases, while the federal or state government funding, in the form of cash subsidies, food stamps, etc., to help low-income earners, and through tax deductions to encourage personal donations. Japan promotes equality through primary distribution, including by maintaining high prices for agricultural products, introducing preferential financial policies for small businesses, and carrying out public works in remote areas.