Pig prices hit a new high since the March rally A-share agricultural sector is red

Source: Guangzhou Daily

Pig prices hit a new high since the March rally A-share agricultural sector is red

Expert analysis said that the domestic edible oil supply and demand situation is generally stable Pig market prices or back to rationality

Pig prices brushed a new high since the March rally. According to data from Flush, as of May 9, pigs (outside three yuan) were reported at 15.13 yuan / kg. The reporter noted that recently, the WeChat account named "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations" released news that on May 6, 2022, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations released a report showing that in April 2022, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 158.5 points, down 0.8% from the record high in March, but the index level in April was still 29.8% higher than the same period last year. In the future, people are concerned about where pig prices, edible oil, and grain will go, and the reporter conducted an in-depth interview.

In the secondary market, according to the data of Tonghuashun, on May 9, a number of A-share agricultural sectors were red, of which planting and forestry, agricultural services, aquaculture and grain planting rose by 3.4%, 2.57%, 1.87% and 1% respectively.

Widely observed

Text/Guangzhou Daily all-media reporters Zhang Lu and Tu Duanyu

Some edible oil prices will rise the increase will be more moderate

"My mother is a typical price-sensitive person, very clear about the price of edible oil of various brands, oil prices have risen, fortunately, the company's welfare sometimes sends rice hair oil, but also help to make up for a little." 」 White-collar Miss Jia said.

At present, the domestic edible oil price is growing, there is feedback from neighbors: the price increase of soybean oil, sunflower oil and other prices on the market has set a new record, and some of them have reached more than 20%; the reporter observed that even if there are preferential edible oil products in online and offline channels, the preferential range has "shrunk", and many of them are even sold at the original price and have not been bundled in any form of gifts.

"The current rise in edible oil prices is inseparable from changes in the global situation." Huang Hanquan, director and researcher of the National Development and Reform Commission's Price And Cost Survey Center, said. Due to the impact of the epidemic, drought in South America and other factors, the reduction of palm production in Malaysia, the reduction in soybean production in Brazil and the reduction in rapeseed production in Canada have caused a shortage of oil supply in the world; the restriction of palm oil exports in Indonesia, the restriction of soybean oil exports in Argentina, and the restriction of sunflower oil exports in the Black Sea region have further exacerbated the global edible oil supply tension; coupled with international capital speculation, high global shipping costs and other factors, together to promote the continuous rise in global edible oil prices, further increasing import costs.

Huang Hanquan believes that although the price of some edible oil in China has risen recently, the supply and demand situation is generally stable, and there is a possibility of a correction in the price of edible oil. First, the consumption of edible oil by domestic residents is mainly soybean oil, vegetable oil, peanut oil, and the price increase of palm oil, sunflower oil and other products has a small impact on the edible oil market of residents; second, it is expected that the sown area of soybeans in the United States will increase this year, and the market price increase is expected to be limited. As the soybean harvest in South America continues to advance and the amount of market supply increases, the international soybean price will most likely retrace; the third is the domestic expansion of soybean oil this year, and the supply of domestic soybean oil is expected to increase; fourth, with people's pursuit of healthy and nutritious eating, the demand for edible oil has gradually declined.

Some industry analysts believe that the growth rate of domestic edible oil will still be "relatively moderate" and will be controlled within a certain range. "The price of edible oil on the mainland rose by 8.6% last year, far below the 65.8% increase in global edible oil." An industry insider said.

Hog prices rose for four weeks in a row Short-term or return to shock consolidation

Lean meat 30 yuan / jin, pig hand 25 yuan / jin, pig foot 23 yuan / jin... On May 9, the latest price was announced at a pork stall in Guangzhou's Liede Market. "The price of wool pigs has been rising for almost a month." Lai Xinyu, owner of the wool pig stall in the Sports East Market, told reporters that the current purchase price of native pigs and pigs has risen to 10 yuan / catty, up nearly 2 yuan per catty from 1 month ago. "Because most of the native pigs sold in their stalls are local pigs, the price is relatively stable, and the increase is not too large." However, the thin pigs sold in other stalls from North China, Shandong and other places have a relatively large price change. Lai Xinyu said that if pig prices continue to rise in the future, he will have to raise the retail price.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 6, compared with mid-April, the price of live pigs (outer three yuan) was 14.6 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.6 yuan / kg over the previous period, up 12.3% month-on-month. Looking back at the data, hog prices have risen for four consecutive periods since late March, specifically, late March, early April, mid-April and late April rose by 0.3 yuan / kg, 0.3 yuan / kg, 0.5 yuan / kg and 1.6 yuan / kg respectively.

Talking about the reasons supporting the recovery in pig prices, Qin Duogui, an agricultural analyst at Guosen Futures, said that it was mainly because the pig group's plan to go out of the bar in April was reduced, and the supply pressure was reduced month-on-month. Previously, the market had certain optimistic expectations for pig prices in the second and third quarters, and the rebound in pig prices also further stimulated the industry's secondary fattening and active pressure psychology, resulting in an enlarged degree of mismatch between supply and demand in the stage, which in turn triggered a sustained recovery in pig prices.

Will pig prices continue to rise in the future? Zhuo Chuang Information believes that after the unexpected adjustment in April, the mentality of the pig market in May may gradually return to rationality, the pace of pig out of the barn in early October may be accelerated, and the price of live pigs may be slightly adjusted. In the second half of the year, the supply side of the market may be relatively tight, driving the price of pigs up. From the overall perspective of the market, the overall average price of live pigs in May may be higher than the level in April, but the situation of big rises and falls may be reduced, and the market price adjustment or return to rationality.

High grain prices stimulate the upward trend of the seed industry Wheat prices are expected to stabilize

According to the data of Tonghuashun, on May 9, the growth of the planting and forestry sector occupied the third place in the A-share industry sector, of which Yong'an Forestry, Wanxiang Denong, Fujian Jinsen and other individual stocks rose and stopped, and Xuerong Biological, Wanchen Biological, Agricultural Development Seed Industry and other stocks rose by more than 5%.

In the context of the current rise in global food prices, seed companies have performed well. The reporter noted that in the first quarter of 2022, the revenue and profit of a number of seed companies increased significantly, and among the genetically modified concept stocks, the net profit of Agricultural Development Seed Industry and Tsuen Yin Hi-Tech in the first quarter increased by more than 10 times year-on-year, the net profit of Xinan Shares, Wanxiang Denong, and Batian Shares doubled year-on-year, and the net profits of Denghai Seed Industry and Longping Hi-Tech increased by 77% and 34% respectively.

Guosen Securities analysis, it is expected that in 2022, the high prosperity of domestic corn, wheat and other grain prices is expected to continue, and in the main wheat-producing areas in 2021, there will be problems such as late sowing and low germination rate in the main wheat-producing areas, and wheat production may be reduced in 2022, and due to the substitution relationship between wheat and corn, corn prices are also expected to strengthen. The seed industry will rise in the next 2 to 3 years, and stimulated by high grain prices, farmers' demand for brand seeds is much better than that of the industry, and the volume and price of head enterprises have risen together.

It is worth noting that since 2022, due to multiple factors, wheat prices have continued to rise, and the price center of gravity has risen as a whole, driving flour prices up. Due to the abundant wheat stocks in the country, "there is grain in hand, and there is no panic in the heart." With the new season wheat on the market, market participants believe that wheat prices are also expected to stabilize.