The latest Russian-Ukrainian judgment may 4: On May 9, will there really be a declaration of war?
Original Small Leaning 9:3 Moments to See the World 2022-05-04 23:23
Morning Mist / Repost
Source | Original
Author | Sue no
Dear readers and friends, today is may 4th, the small Russian-Ukrainian war situation research series has survived another day, and we are once again concerned about the independence process of the Ukrainian people.
Although today's war situation is not much different from yesterday's, because the Russian army almost occupied Yampier and approached dividend man (Lehmann), it will have a greater impact on the war situation, so today we will analyze this in detail.
Today's specific situation is as follows:
1. The Russian TOS-1 rocket launcher was photographed fighting in Yampier, near a local substation. Rocket launchers are generally long-range support firepower, appearing in Yampier, which generally means that the Russian army has taken control of Yampier.
2. To the northeast of Kharkiv, the Ukrainian army liberated the village of Molodova near Stari Saltif. This has been the progress of the Ukrainian army in the northeast of Kharkov for many consecutive days. We have already analyzed this in detail yesterday, so we will not say more today.
3. Russian troops launched a ground attack on the Azov Steel Plant in Mariupol, and in the hours before that, Russian troops also sent aircraft to bomb the steel plant. Overall, the fighting was small and the casualties were small.
Let's take a closer look at the battle:
In general, the russian occupation of Yampier and their entry into Oskil would result in the Ukrainian army being in a difficult to defend at Dividendman (Lehmann).
The key factor lies in the North Donets River. Lyman and Jan Pyre are on the northeast side of the river, and Slavyansk is on the southwest side of the river.
The Russians did not go directly to Lehmann, probably because after the capture of Lehmann, it was not easy to cross the North Donets River due to the topography of the local terrain. Moreover, the bridge between Lyman and Slavyansk has been blown up by the Ukrainian army, as stated in yesterday's research article.
Now it is clear that the Russians are taking Yampier first and then dealing with Lehmann.
To the south of Jan Pier, the North Donets River turns a few turns here, encircling a protrusion, which is just in favor of the Russian army in the north of Jan Pier to pinch the Ukrainian army in the south, so it is more advantageous for crossing the river.
The arrow is the suitable river crossing field
If the Russian army crossed the river here, crossing the river was a flat and open terrain, and the Russian army could use this as a landing field and then gradually expand.
If the Russian army went west from here, it could threaten Mykolavka and then Slavyansk; if it went east, it could enter Siversk, and then threaten Lichansk, dividing Slavyansk and the Ukrainian army in northeastern Donbass.
I believe that due to the importance of this place, the Ukrainian army cannot do nothing. Even if the Ukrainians gave up the option of fighting the Russians in the field, they would at least have to take advantage of the formation of the Russian Yanpir to Popasna circle to go to Lichansk to transport more supplies and ammunition in the direction of Lichansk, right?
For so many days, the "Donbass" campaign has basically been a monotonous script of the Russian army advancing at a rapid pace and the Ukrainian army retreating after stubborn resistance. Now there was finally some collision, which was a real test for the Ukrainian army, and I seemed to smell blood.
At present, we still do not have to worry too much about the Ukrainian army, because there is still a considerable distance from Yampier to Popasina, the Ukrainian army has been operating here for many years, has a large fortification area, and has also stored a considerable amount of food and ammunition, even if it is held in place, according to the attack capabilities of the Russian army before, it will have to climb for a long time.
The two sides have achieved some success in the past 24 hours:
The Ukrainians destroyed a Russian supply convoy near the village of Wessel, east of Kharkiv, and 3 BMP vehicles of the Russian army near Barak. Mobile operations, waiting for the opportunity to eat the russian army's lonely detachment, this is the best play of the Ukrainian army in the whole war.
The Russian "beech" air defense system opened fire in Kharkiv Oblast, and the Russian army claimed to have shot down a MiG-29 fighter of the Ukrainian Air Force:
Russian drones were shot down in the Dnipropetrovsk region;
There is a video of the Russian 2S7M self-propelled gun carrying out anti-artillery combat missions, and the Russian army yesterday claimed to destroy the Ukrainian 2S7 and D30 artillery positions:
Contrary to propaganda, the Russian artillery said that anti-artillery is a difficult task that requires every effort.
The maximum speed of the Russian 2S7 self-propelled howitzer is 50 km / h. A 59×2A44 203 mm cannon is installed, which can fire high-explosive fragmented grenades, rocket-boosted grenades and tactical nuclear shells with a range of 37.5 km.
Because the 2S7 is equipped with a long-barrel large-caliber main gun with a long range, the task assigned to the 2S7 by the Russian army this time is to suppress the Ukrainian artillery. Once the location of the Ukrainian artillery is found, 2S7 will fire 1-2 shells in an attempt to destroy the other side, while quickly driving away from the original gun position to avoid being hit by the anti-artillery fire of the other side.
From this video, we can understand the way artillery and anti-artillery fight. The Ukrainian army had a lower range of artillery than the Russians, and how difficult it was to fight. Of course, the arrival of a large number of Western heavy artillery, especially the German-made Pzh-2000 self-propelled howitzer that the Dutch are said to have given to Ukraine, which can reach a range of 40 kilometers when using rocket range extended shells, will raise the Ukrainian anti-artillery capability to a new level.
War-wounded situations on the territory of Ukraine:
An explosion occurred in the Kiev area, and the air defense system could open fire. On the same day, cruise missiles were detected in many parts of Ukraine; many parts of the country were shelled by Russian troops.
Russians shelled the Avdiyivka chemical plant with at least 10 dead and 15 wounded. According to Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko, the gun killed workers waiting for a bus near the Avdiivka chemical plant.
In the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian railway system has been damaged:
According to the head of the Ukrainian railways, in just one night, 6 railway stations in the central and western regions of Ukraine were attacked by missiles. As a result, some trains will be delayed.
Russian missiles hit Lviv, damaging 3 substations, causing a partial power outage in parts of Lviv. The mayor said there were at least 5 big explosions near Lviv!
I learned from my Chinese student friends in Lviv that many Chinese were originally in eastern Ukraine and are now evacuated to Lviv, hoping that they will be safe.
In reports of explosions and power outages following a Russian missile attack, there was an internet outage in Lviv; real-time network data showed connectivity drops to 87 percent of previous levels.
The war has left Ukraine conservatively devastated, and many people's homes have been destroyed and forced to be displaced. Kiev oblast authorities announced that housing would be built for those affected by the war. According to the Kiev Regional Administration, residents of Ilpin and Borojanka who lost their homes as a result of the Russian war will be given permanent residences. Authorities said two residential blocks of 50,000 square meters would be completed within five months.
Today I would like to say in particular about the occupied areas, including Mariupol:
At present, the Ukrainian army of Azov Steel Works is still holding out, and thanks to the intervention of the United Nations, the first 156 civilians evacuated from the Azov plant have arrived in Zaporizhia:
On 3 May, after the initial evacuation, Russian forces resumed air, artillery and ground attacks on the Aeszov steel plant. Sviatoslav Palamar, deputy commander of the Azov Regiment, said Russian forces launched a ground attack to try to enter the Azov steel mill under the cover of air strikes, which killed two civilian women inside the plant.
According to reports, only the 810th Brigade of the Russian Marine Corps and donexk are currently besieging the Ukrainian army at the Azov Steel Plant in Mariupol.
The Russians accelerated their advance plan to separate Mariupol.
According to the Ukrainian intelligence agency (GUR), private enterprises in Rostov, Russia, were ordered to produce official seals and stamps for public institutions in Mariupol, which are said to read: "Russia, Donbass Republic, Mariupol, civil-military government." The GUR report is consistent with a statement by Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, that children in the Mangush region near Mariupol are signing their school notebooks with the "Rostov region" and indicate that Russia continues its efforts to further institutionalize its control over the occupied territories with a view to possible annexation of Russia.
In addition, Russia did not formally annex the DPR, but recognized its independence, but the current popular reference to "Russia, Donbass Repulic" is contrary to Russia's current official position. These strange phenomena may indicate that the Russian military is engaged in a superficial set of practices that are actually another.
In fact, although the independence of Donetsk is recognized in the mouth, the practice is very "intimate". It is said that all the men aged 18-55 in Donbas have been pulled to the top, and as for the question of "how to prevent them from escaping from the battle", some people say that the Russian army has mixed the people of Donbass with the people of Kadyrov, that is, the Chechen Governor Team...
No picture, no truth:
This is the fate of traitors and slaves: being infinitely conscripted as cannon fodder!
This brings us to a question: in the face of the decline on the battlefield, in the face of what is not to do, the tone of forming a football team first place, how should Russia fight this war?
In response, the Washington War Research Institute released a report on the situation on the Battlefield in Ukraine released on May 3, saying that Ukrainian officials are increasingly confident that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9.
The head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Budanov, said on May 2 that the Kremlin had begun preparations for mobilization procedures and personnel, which was expected to be announced on May 9, and that secret mobilization had been carried out. Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council said it was an attempt to legitimize a protracted war effort, calling it World War III against the West, rather than Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far characterized the war as a "special military operation" against Ukraine. The ISW has no independent sources to confirm Russia's readiness to mobilize.
In fact, the reference to the Third World War is impossible, and I think that, first of all, at present, Russia is unprecedentedly isolated, and there is no longer a political basis for multinational participation in the war, and at most it will pull Belarus. Even if White Russia is counted, there are many additions, and even the collective security organization does not bird Russia;
Second, more importantly, the shape of war has changed, and it is impossible to reproduce a large-scale war similar to the "meat grinder" of World War I or the "steel torrent" of World War II in the context of today's Internet popularization and social media pervasiveness.
Russia has repeatedly rendered the threat of "three wars", in the final analysis, it is nothing more than intimidation + putting gold on its face. In fact, when a discerning person looks at the crotch-pulling performance of the Russian army in front of the front line, he will understand that this battle cannot be expanded.
Of course, the possibility of declaring war does exist. Undoubtedly, a declaration of war would solve the problem of the most needed soldiers on the front lines, but it could hurt the economy even more severely, because Western sanctions against Russia could strike like a tsunami, and the declaration of war could also expand Russia's internal opposition, and the Kremlin would be isolated not only internationally, but also more isolated on 17.09 million square kilometers.
For Kyo, however, there may be two most important points: first, as a means to distract them from their tactical and strategic defeat on the battlefields of Ukraine; and second: to further concentrate power in his hands, especially if he declares martial law, suspends elections, and so on. It should be seen that for the sake of the ass, sometimes the brain can be unwanted.
Whether there will be a declaration of war or not, we will wait another 5 days to know.
Around Ukraine, dark clouds are also accumulating:
At 8:30 a.m. local time this morning, a division of the S-300PS missile system of the Belarusian Armed Forces was moving from Brest along the R-17 highway toward the Marklany/Ukraine border, an emergency military exercise announced by Belarus today that it would not pose a threat to its neighbors. Is this a precursor to White Russia's entry into the war? But the West has not sounded a similar alarm, so let's take a closer look.
The Ukrainian General Staff said that the Russian army was preparing to evacuate the families of transnistrian officers. It seems that the Dezuo region has not completely settled down.
Today, however, the U.S. Air Force has deployed six F-16 Falcon fighters to Borča Air Base in southeastern Romania, which should have done something to deter the local area.
In response to Moldova's claim that it has basically no national defense, only 6,000 soldiers, lack of weapons and equipment, and lack of training, the Council of Europe has committed to increasing its military support for Moldova.
In addition, Russia warned that Finland was going to join NATO. Now Finland has begun to deploy military equipment to the Russian-Finnish border area:
You look at how many feuds Russia has accumulated over the years: Sweden (a dozen lifetimes), Finland, Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Greece, and now Israel.
Although Russia still controls Belarus and the German left region, and also suppresses Azerbaijan and Armenia, in fact, these places are also secretly dissatisfied, hoping to see Russia's foreign situation.
Can Russia really win this lonely war against the entire civilized world? Even if war is really declared and mobilized, will Russia have the ability to bring happiness to its own country and Ukrainian nationals under the joint encirclement and suppression of more than 40 countries?
Take a look at the military reinforcements ukraine has received in the last 24 hours:
U.S. Defense Secretary Austin said the U.S. has pledged military aid totaling $3.7 billion to Ukraine since the start of the war;
The Russian military said that a batch of 155 mm shells for U.S. howitzers transported by a U.S. Air Force military transport aircraft had arrived in Ukraine:
Russia's Readovka analyzed flights by Western transport planes to Poland's Rzeszów airport, which is located 150 kilometers from Lviv and has become one of the main hubs for NATO countries to supply weapons to Ukraine. Today alone, at least 20 flights have been made, carried out by heavy transport aircraft C-17s of the United States Air Force, Boeing 767s of the Italian Air Force and C-130s of the Canadian Air Force.
In addition, Atlas Airlines and Calita Airlines' Boeing 747F, Western Universal's MD-11F and Ukraine's An-12 are involved in the transportation of military cargo.
Aircraft took off from Frankfurt, air bases on the U.S. mainland, Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Gander Airport in Canada, and some European airports. Today alone, at least 800 tons of military materiel are being transported to Rzeszów airport – far from the only conduit for Western arms supplies.
Ukraine's defense minister confirmed that Ukraine is now using U.S.-supplied howitzers against Russia.
Speaking to parliament, Johnson announced further $375 million in aid to Ukraine, including anti-ship missiles and air defense systems. Among them, there were also 13 armored vehicles to "rescue civilians from besieged areas".
This also includes the Malloy T150 drone, which can carry advanced equipment.
The drone has a range of 70 kilometers and can carry up to 68 kilograms of equipment. Before I played several Ukrainian military modified commercial four-axis drones to throw bombs at the Russian army video, that kind of four-axis UAV activity range is not more than 5 kilometers, can carry equipment will not exceed 10 kg, compared to the T150 can carry 2-4 10 kg level bombs, lethality is really different from grenades, the russian army's trouble is endless.
Originally, there was a video and text introducing the American "Spring Knife 600" today, but because this article is already too long, I deleted it. See if there is a chance to send it to you in the future.
The last news of the military reinforcements section was that Germany was ready to "pour out" Ukraine and come up with one-sixth of its self-propelled guns that could be used.
According to the German newspaper Le Monde. Germany will supply Ukraine with 7 Pzh-2000 self-propelled howitzers from the Bundeswehr inventory. It is worth noting that in order to make such a decision, the German government had to ignore the opposition from within the German army. The Germans said they "didn't have enough" weapons themselves. Of the 119 PzH-2000 self-propelled howitzers, only 41 are operationally capable, seven of which are already one-sixth of what Germany can use.
Surprise or no surprise? Scared or not afraid?
Long-term neglect of national defense construction, military spending for a long time less than 1%, this is what Germany did, and when the disaster comes, it will be helpless, fortunately, this time Ukraine blocked the gun, but next time?
Let's look at the news from the diplomatic section:
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen today introduced the sixth set of sanctions against Russia. The first is to target senior officers and other individuals who committed XXXX in Bucha. Von der Leyen said: We know who you are and you will be held accountable!
Before a big country said that there was no conclusion of any investigation into the Bucha incident, the United States was anxious to say that Russia did it. Now that the European Commission says this, does it mean that the conclusion of the investigation of the incident has come out, or is it still "rushed to say"? Understand that people have a scale in their hearts!
Von der Leyen went on to say that under the new package of sanctions against Russia, the EU is proposing to expel Sberbank (Sberbank) and a number of other Russian banks from the international SWIFT payment system. Sberbank is Russia's largest state-owned commercial bank, accounting for more than a quarter of domestic bank assets.
Other sanctions include a total ban on Russian oil imports and a ban on 3 Russian broadcasters.
At the same time, the EU warned member states to prepare for a possible complete disruption in Russian gas supplies, insisting it would not give in to Moscow's demand to pay for imports in rubles.
Undoubtedly, these measures will cause Russia to lose a lot of overseas assets, causing the Russian domestic economy to become more and more difficult. Moreover, after a comprehensive ban on Russian oil imports, it was followed by a total ban on the import of Russian natural gas within a few years, and if Russia did not find alternative export products during this period, the national economy would inevitably collapse. Of course, you can rest assured that he will not find it. There is no other product in Russia that is not, and cannot be, as much as natural gas, and that is exported as much. Even if Russia wants to export this gas to the rest of the world, the negotiation of contracts, the finalization of prices, and the laying of pipelines will be a price that Russia cannot afford. Of course, if someone is determined to send money to Russia, it can always be done, I don't know who wants to be the wrongdoer?
Well, the world is big, and there are always wronged heads.
In response to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's unsympathetic remarks a few days ago, he said that Hitler also had Jewish blood, and Ukraine could not bear it. Advisers to the Ukrainian president's office retorted: What began as anti-Semitic rhetoric in Moscow is now a massive missile attack on Ukrainian cities. Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kirovolad, Zakarpatia. The difference between the Kremlin and ISIS is getting smaller and smaller.
Countries around the world were also shocked, and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau:
What the Russian Foreign Minister has just said is simply unbelievable!
Israeli Foreign Minister Rapid:
Lavrov's remarks are unforgivable and terrible historical errors!
U.S. State Department Spokesperson Price:
Foreign Minister Lavrov's remarks are the lowest form of ZZZY!
It's a drum beat.
I wondered: How did such a cultured, unqualified, and inhuman person become a foreign minister?
For such a country, Ukraine shares the same hatred, and Alexei Arstović, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, said that he would not sign a peace treaty with Russia, but only an agreement on the surrender of Russian troops. Alexei Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, also believes that the conclusion of a peace treaty is impossible and therefore requires preparation for a protracted war.
Finally, even Israel, which had been wandering, was outraged and announced the lifting of restrictions on the transfer of Israeli-made weapons to Ukraine, such as Estonia's "Long Nail" single-soldier anti-tank missile. Let the spikes smash the Jews' anger against Russian armored vehicles and tanks!
In fact, the result of such a wall overthrowing everyone is, on the one hand, some people are hot-headed, and on the other hand, they are also used to it.
To this day, Chinese still clamor on the Internet that Western countries give weapons, which is "arch fire", that the Russo-Ukrainian war is a war between Russia and the United States, that the United States has made a fortune in the war, and that Russia will soon come up with a hand, and that when Ukraine collapses, the United States will kneel, and NATO will die.
I really don't understand, the Western countries do not give Ukraine weapons, do they watch Ukraine being annexed as a whole? If, according to the "proposal of the overwhelming majority of countries in the world", it is estimated that Ukraine has long ceased to exist, what else is to be talked about? It was the Western countries that gave weapons, intelligence, and resolute sanctions against Russia that helped Ukraine withstand Russia's first wave of offensives, and subsequent negotiations were possible.
When I say that the Russo-Ukrainian War was a war between Russia and the United States, I can't understand it even more. So far, the United States has not sent a single soldier, nor has it given tanks or aircraft, and the order to start a war was not issued by the United States, and does it have a half-cent relationship with the United States? Besides, judging from the actual situation on the battlefield, do you think Russia has the strength to fight with the United States? And, no, yes!
To say that the United States made a fortune in the war is even more headless. Before the war, the "garbage country" Ukraine spent only $4 billion a year on the military, and since the beginning of the war, the United States has given 3.7 billion, and will give 33 billion in the future, and the arsenal is open for supply, Ukraine does not have to give money, "lend-lease" on the line.
After the war, the United States will also call on a group of little brothers to help the reconstruction of Ukraine, give guns and artillery in wartime, and give aid after the war, how to earn this money back, I really don't understand.
It is aimed at Ukraine's annual military expenditure of $4 billion, of which the money that can be used to buy foreign arms will not exceed 400 million, and the money that can be used to buy US arms will last for two hundred million. How many years will it take for the United States to get $340 billion in aid back?
In fact, the biggest wrongdoer in the world is the United States. When the United States fought Iraq and helped Kuwait recover its country, it cost hundreds of billions of dollars. When the Kuwaiti Army wanted to purchase self-propelled artillery, the winning bid was the PLZ-45 type 155 mm howitzer of a large eastern country (as described in yesterday's research article), and the M109 self-propelled gun that the US military took to bid for, Kuwait was too expensive to look at, and did not buy it at all.
Not to mention Kuwait, as far as Iraq's post-war reconstruction is concerned, a large number of contracts, American businessmen have not competed, have been robbed by emerging powers.
As far as the Intelligence of the United States is concerned, making war money? Save it!
Those who say that the United States has made a lot of war money are either blind or stupid, or they are bad.
Also, if you say that Russia is about to threaten, it is recommended to look at these pictures: I will not say anything.
Why don't I want to say anything in the face of these pictures? Because as long as you have a little bit of common sense, a little bit of rationality, and a little bit of the spirit of independent thinking, you will fully understand who is "fighting", who is "arching fire", who is speaking with conscience, who is giving people brains, pouring excrement.
The reason why I work hard to code 7, 8000 words every day, write about cerebral hypoxia, write about sinus bradycardia, even if it is more updated and later, I hold my breath to be more every day, nothing more than to want to excrete the excrement in our brains a little!
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Source: 2022-05-04 WeChat public number 9:3 moments to see the world
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