The Paper's reporter Xie Ruiqiang
Western military assistance to Ukraine has expanded from the initial defensive weapons such as rocket launchers and anti-tank missiles to heavy weapons such as tanks and artillery.
On April 28, local time, the German Bundestag passed a bill on Ukraine, formally approving the country's continued supply of weapons to Ukraine, and the scope of delivery was expanded to heavy weapons.
According to the bill, Germany should continue to supply Ukraine with all types of effective weapons, including heavy weapons, and expedite their deliveries as soon as possible. In addition, the bill supports all the measures taken by the German government since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, including the sanctions imposed by Germany on Russia and the reconstruction of infrastructure to break away from its dependence on Russia's energy.
Germany will supply Eck with 88 Leopard 1A5 tanks.
Ukraine will get hundreds of tanks
Reuters previously pointed out that the German government spokesman said on the 25th that Germany will soon make a decision on whether to provide Ukraine with 100 old-fashioned "weasel" infantry fighting vehicles. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall also plans to supply Ukraine with 88 Leopard 1A5 tanks.
Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were only part of Germany's heavy weapons supply to Ukraine, and Germany also planned to provide Ukraine with "Cheetah" self-propelled anti-aircraft guns. Germany's Der Spiegel magazine reported that Lambrecht, a member of the German Social Democratic Party, announced on April 26 at a meeting on the situation in Ukraine held at the US Air Base in Dramstein that Germany plans to deliver the Cheetah self-propelled anti-aircraft gun to Ukraine. As early as the end of February this year, German military giant Klaus Marphe Weigemann announced that the company still had about 50 "cheetahs" in its inventory, which could be supplied to Ukraine after a short repair.
"'Cheetah' is an integrated self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery system equipped with 35 mm anti-aircraft guns, radar and fire control systems, the entire system is integrated in a vehicle, with a strong independent combat capability," military expert Han Dong told the surging news, "due to the expensive electronic equipment and systems, this self-propelled anti-aircraft gun cost even exceeds the main battle tank." ”
"'Cheetah' is the benchmark of self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery, after the birth of the gun, many countries' advanced self-propelled anti-aircraft gun designs have referred to the 'Cheetah' self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, such as Japan's Type 87, South Africa's ZA-35 and other self-propelled anti-aircraft guns," Han Dong pointed out, "For Ukraine, the self-propelled artillery can be combined with man-portable air defense missiles to improve air defense capabilities, which is especially important in the absence of air supremacy." ”
Reuters analysis said that if approved by the German government, it would be the first batch of heavy weapons provided by Germany to Ukraine. The move could force German Chancellor Schoelz to take a stand on whether Germany could supply Ukraine with heavy weapons directly, as the deal would require approval from Germany's Federal Security Council, which Scholz chairs.
"Cheetah" 35 mm self-propelled anti-aircraft gun.
On the 26th, German Defense Minister Lambertcht said at the Ramstein Air Base in the country that Germany would provide Ukraine with heavy weapons, including "Leopard" tanks, changing the position that had previously avoided direct shipments of weapons to conflict areas. Scholz said earlier this month that arms assistance to Ukraine would not be a separate German operation, but would be cooperative and coordinated with all its allies.
Before Germany approved the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine, countries such as the United States, Britain and Poland had begun to supply Uke with heavy weapons such as tanks, armored vehicles and artillery.
On April 21, the United States announced $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, including 72 M777 ultralight 155 mm guns, the most advanced U.S. military in service. Prior to this, the United States has begun to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine, and Biden approved $800 million of new military assistance to Ukraine on the 13th, including more than a dozen heavy howitzers, hundreds of armored vehicles and nearly 12 helicopters. The Pentagon hopes to help the Ukrainian army resist the strong russian offensive in the eastern part of Ukraine as the Russo-Ukrainian War enters a new phase.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed in a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy on April 23 that Britain would provide ukraine with more defensive military assistance, including heavy weapons. Earlier, there were media reports that the United Kingdom may provide Ukraine with AS-90 type 155 mm caliber self-propelled howitzers, but British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace denied the news on the 25th, and said that the 105 mm towed howitzer provided to Ukraine was equipped by the British Army.
Among European and American countries, Poland may become the country that supplies Ukraine with the most heavy weapons. Polish Radio said on the 29th that the Polish government has provided more than 200 T-72 tanks and dozens of infantry fighting vehicles to the Ukrainian army, with a total value of about 1.5 billion euros.
The M777 towed gun supplied to Ukraine by the United States has arrived in Ukraine.
Polish Radio said the equipment was "enough to form two brigades". The report did not disclose the specific model of the infantry fighting vehicle. Polish Prime Minister Shokoi Morawiec confirmed earlier this week that The Polish were supplying tanks to Ukraine, but did not disclose specific numbers and models.
Han Dong's analysis pointed out that the heavy weapons provided by Western countries to Ukraine at present have two characteristics: First, most of them are stock goods, whether it is the "Leopard" 1 tank provided by Germany or the T-72 tank provided by Poland, the tanks that have been retired, and the other is to try to select Soviet-style equipment, so that the Ukrainian army with Soviet-style equipment is also better to get started.
In order to let the Ukrainian army grasp the operation and use of non-Soviet heavy equipment as soon as possible, the US military has also stepped up training for Ukrainian military personnel. U.S. Defense Department spokesman Kirby announced at a briefing on the 29th that the United States has begun to conduct additional training for the Ukrainian armed forces at U.S. military facilities in Germany. Kirby said the training was based on initial artillery training that Ukrainian troops had already received elsewhere, and the training also included operational aspects such as radar systems and armored vehicles.
In addition to ground equipment, many Western countries are also seeking to restore the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Force. At present, the United States has provided Ukraine with a large number of spare parts for MiG-29 fighters, and it is reported that these spare parts are likely to come from the Moldovan Air Force. In this regard, the Ukrainian side said that with the support of spare parts of this batch of MiG-29 fighters, at least 20 fighters of the Ukrainian army will restore combat effectiveness.
How useful are heavy weapons?
With the passage of the "Lend-Lease Act" by the US Congress to strengthen military assistance to Ukraine, the United States and other Western countries will provide more heavy weapons to Ukraine in the future.
According to the US "Defense News" weekly website reported on April 29, the US Congress passed a bill on the 28th that can strengthen the president's right to lease US military equipment to Ukraine. The bill seeks to revive a World War II-era program that allowed the government to lend or lease military equipment to U.S. allies.
Han Dong told the surging news that many Western countries have provided Ukraine with heavy weapons such as tanks, armored vehicles and artillery, the most important purpose is to make up for the shortage of heavy weapons, and after more than two months of fighting, the Ukrainian army has lost a lot of heavy weapons.
The Polish T-72 tank was later improved and improved in performance.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on the 29th that since the start of the special operation, Russia has destroyed 142 aircraft, 112 helicopters, 640 unmanned aerial vehicles, 279 sets of missile systems, 2646 tanks and armored vehicles, 305 salvo rocket systems, 1184 artillery and mortars, and 2475 units of military vehicles.
The Ukrainian side has not announced the specific loss of its heavy weapons to the outside world, but it can be seen from the repeated requests of Ukrainian President Zelensky and other senior officials to western countries for assistance in heavy weapons that the Ukrainian army urgently needs heavy weapons. On the 25th local time, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy met with US Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin visiting in Kiev, and the day before the meeting, Zelenskiy said that the US side cannot "come empty-handed", and the Ukrainian side expects more heavy weapons.
In the view of The American expert Malek Dudakov, the goal of the United States and the West as a whole is to engage in a war of attrition, weaken the Russian economy through sanctions, and at the same time provide weapons to the Ukrainian army, so that the Ukrainian army can resist the Russian army for a longer period of time and cause heavy losses to the latter.
In an interview with CNN, former NATO Commander-in-Chief Wesley Clark noted that one way to achieve Defense Secretary Austin's goal of "weakening" Russia is to send "500 tanks, thousands of artillery and rockets" to Ukraine, "and if we are to break the Russian offensive in Donbass, we must get [all the tanks and artillery] on fire." ”
In the context of the expansion of the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine by many Western countries, the extent to which these heavy weapons can play a role and what the impact of the conflict has also sparked discussion.
Daniel Davis, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who fought in four wars, wrote that on the surface, it seems that if the West supplies Ukraine with a large number of tanks, it can defeat the Russian offensive, but the actual battlefield difficulties and challenges make such an outcome difficult to happen. In the best case scenario, it would take more than a year for the Ukrainian armored forces to develop a sufficiently robust combat capability.
The Czech Republic transported aided T-72 tanks to Ukraine by rail.
In Daniel Davis's view, ideally, Ukraine would build an armored force with sufficient combat capability on the premise of acquiring similar weapons (Soviet-made weapons) that have been used for decades, better interoperability, and easier maintenance, but Kiev lacks well-trained personnel to control Western-style anti-aircraft missiles, howitzers, and drones provided by the West, and it takes time to train those who can operate these weapons, so there are great challenges.
"Many of the weapons provided by the West have lagged behind in performance, and some have even been in stock for forty or fifty years, such as the 'Leopard' 1 tank, which has only reached the level of the second generation in comprehensive performance, and has been placed in the warehouse in the 90s. Han Dong said.
"Although in a short period of time, some of the heavy weapons provided by the West are stockpiled goods, and it is difficult to form a combat capability into a structure, but a large number of heavy weapons provided to Ukraine can still enhance the strength of the Ukrainian army to a certain extent, lengthen the front line, fight a war of attrition, and bring more difficulties to the Russian army." Han Dong thinks.
For the West to expand the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said on the 25th that nato countries to provide weapons to Ukraine, essentially through proxies in conflict with Russia, these weapons will become the legitimate target of the Russian military in "special military operations".
On April 11, Igor Konashenkov told the media on April 11 that the Russian military destroyed four sets of S-300 launchers with "caliber" sea-based high-precision missiles on April 10. Konashenkov did not specify which European country provided the S-300 air defense missile system, but according to the US "Defense News" network reported on April 9, the Slovak Defense Minister issued a statement saying that Slovakia decided to supply Ukraine with stockpiled S-300 air defense missiles, on the condition that the United States deploy "Patriot" missiles in its territory within 7 days.
In addition to striking western heavy weapons, the Russian army also began to strike Ukrainian railway facilities to prevent the shipment of Western weapons to The Donbass.
Igor Konashenkov said that on the 25th, the Russian Air and Space Force and missile forces carried out the first strike on Ukraine's critical railway infrastructure, destroying the substation facilities of 6 railway stations in western Ukraine with high-precision strike weapons. After the crackdown, about 25-30 passenger trains and an unknown number of freight trains were stranded in the area, including trains transporting weapons and equipment for Ukrainian troops.
Russian military expert Viktor Baránets said that in the near future, important railway bridges will become new targets for attacks in western and central Ukraine.
Senior Editor of this issue Zhou Yuhua