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✪ Zhang Dongshun | Chinese National Defense University of the People's Liberation Army
【Introduction】
On April 26, 2022, the bus of the Confucius Institute at the University of Karachi in Pakistan suffered a terrorist attack, killing three Chinese teachers and injuring one Chinese teacher. This is
Another terrorist attack against Chinese.
At present, the "Majid Brigade" under the "Balochistan Liberation Army" claims to be responsible for the attack, which casts a shadow on the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
This article points out that in recent years, the number of violent terrorist activities launched by Balochistan separatist organizations has increased, and there is an upward trend in terrorist attacks against relevant personnel and facilities in China.
First, they believe that the construction of the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" is to plunder the resources of Balochistan, the second is to put more pressure on the Pakistani government, and the third is to attract higher attention from the international community.
The author analyzes that since the establishment of Pakistan's independent state, the separatist forces in Balochistan have been fighting with the Pakistani central government in order to seek complete independence of the province.
Previously, in order to achieve some strategic goals in Afghanistan and India, the Pakistani government had secretly funded some religious extremist organizations, and then the Pakistani government participated in the GLOBAL WAR on terror led by the United States, which was regarded as betrayal and antagonism by these organizations, prompting some extremist forces to transform into armed groups against the Pakistani government, and since then began to launch attacks against the Pakistani government.
Although the Pakistani government attaches great importance to combating terrorism, after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Pakistan's domestic economy has suffered a serious blow, and the latest poverty rate has exceeded 40%.
Poverty and unemployment also provide a steady stream of human resources to Pakistani terrorist organizations to some extent.
The article was originally published in South Asian Studies Quarterly, No. 1, 2022, originally titled "The Current Terrorist Threat Facing Pakistan and Its Response",
It only represents the author's own views and is for the consideration of all the kings.
Currently facing Pakistan
Terrorist threats and their responses
As the second largest country in South Asia, Pakistan has long been threatened by terrorism, and some violent terrorist forces have deliberately created terrorist attacks from time to time, which has a greater impact on Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan, as a victim of terrorism, is under external pressure from allegations that it harbours terrorists. The Global Terrorism Index Report 2020 shows that while the threat of terrorism in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India has improved, South Asia remains the region most affected by terrorism. In 2020, for the second consecutive year, the number of deaths from terrorist activities in South Asia surpassed that of the rest of the world. Pakistan's level of terrorist threat, while declining, remains seventh in the global rankings, behind Afghanistan in South Asia. Studies have shown that armed conflict remains the main driver of terrorism, with all 10 countries most affected by terrorism participating in at least one armed conflict. Pakistan, on the other hand, can be said to have been plagued by armed conflict: first, the India-Pakistan conflict since pakistan's founding, second, the perennial war in neighboring Afghanistan, and third, war in the Middle East. These three levels of domestic and foreign wars fuel terrorist activities and pose a major threat to Pakistan's national security. Over the years, the Government of Pakistan has achieved remarkable results by taking strong measures to actively combat various terrorist organizations and extremist forces.
▍ The current terrorist situation facing Pakistan
Pakistan is located in a strategic area where multiple conflicts overlap, where global and regional forces converge and collide. Over the past 20 years, Pakistan has been holding high the banner of international counter-terrorism and has made great contributions to easing tensions in South Asia, promoting peace and development in the region and stabilizing the domestic situation by taking various effective measures to actively defuse external and internal security risks. In recent years, the Pakistani side has paid more attention to maintaining the domestic security environment and focusing on economic development. In particular, the steady progress of the construction of the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" has greatly increased Pakistan's domestic employment opportunities and reduced poverty to a certain extent, injecting a strong impetus for Pakistan's development, and enabling the Pakistani government and people to gradually establish the concept of "stability with one hand and development with the other". That is why, although the threat of terrorism still exists, the overall security situation in Pakistan is improving year by year. The data show that the number of terrorist attacks and the number of casualties caused by the continued counter-terrorism operations carried out by the Palestinian government and army in the territory have been greatly reduced.
While Pakistan has ushered in a rare opportunity for historical development, it still faces a complex situation in which the challenge of terrorism is difficult to completely eliminate. As far as the threat of terrorism in Pakistan is concerned, the incidence of violent terrorist incidents in Pakistan has been on a downward trend since 2014. The data shows that the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan decreased by 36% in 2020 compared to 2019, and the number of people killed in attacks also fell by 38%. However, these plummeting figures do not mean that the terrorist threat to Pakistan has been eliminated. At the same time, the Pakistani Taliban Movement ("Bata") and its affiliates were reorganized in parts of the Cape Province, and its leadership also incorporated a number of other separatist groups under its wing, further strengthening the "Bata". Slow progress in reforms in the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas, which has led to weak administrative, judicial, security and economic reforms, is also exacerbating the threat of Palestinian terrorism. Since 2021, the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan has increased, and the number of terrorist attacks against Chinese citizens and enterprises has increased significantly, which has attracted the attention of the top level of China and Pakistan.
▍ Distribution of major terrorist organizations in Pakistan
Although the Palestinian Government has made significant achievements in counter-terrorism, in view of the large stock of terrorist organizations and extremist groups in its territory, they may still take various violent terrorist actions that threaten Pakistan's internal security and stability. As a result of the Pakistani Government's sustained and vigorous crackdown in recent years, terrorist activities in the country have been effectively curbed. Combined with the analysis of the overall situation of terrorist activities in the past, the scope of activities of Pakistani terrorist organizations and extremist forces is mainly concentrated in "two major directions and two major regions".
(1) Two major directions
The first direction refers to the Cape Province to the north of Brazil, especially in the former federally administered tribal areas, where the stock of terrorist organizations is large. Among them, the most representative main ones are "Bata" and "Al Qaeda". The composition of these terrorist organizations is extremely complex, ranging from indigenous people to those from neighboring countries. They are deeply influenced by fundamentalism, have strong anti-US sentiments and hatred for the United States, are extremely destructive, and often do whatever it takes to achieve their ends. In recent years, at the instigation of the United States and the West, the tendency of individual organizations to oppose the Pakistani government and hate China has increased significantly. In particular, the former federally administered tribal areas, which once enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, have become breeding grounds for terrorism due to economic backwardness. In 2018, in order to strengthen the administration and promote the stability and economic development of the federally administered tribal areas, the central government of Pakistan placed it under the jurisdiction of the cape province in the northwest. The move has angered vested interests in the region, leading some tribesmen to openly demand independence from Pakistan and openly support the actions of terrorist groups against the government.
The second direction refers mainly to the southern direction of Balochistan in Brazil. The province has historically been the region where the game of central and local interests is most intense in Pakistan. The local Baloch people have always maintained a strong sense of national identity, and have long demanded the independence of Pakistan and the establishment of an independent "Balochstan", a demand with a deep basis of public support. The Balochi and Pashtun ethnic groups in the province have repeatedly launched independence movements for the purpose of achieving independent statehood or enjoying higher regional autonomy, causing long-term instability in the province and providing favorable conditions for the survival and development of many terrorist organizations. At present, the province is one of the areas with the largest stock of terrorist organizations in Pakistan, and representative terrorist organizations include the "Balochistan Liberation Army", "Balochistan Liberation Front", "Balochistan United Army" and "Balochistan Republican Army", some of which have also received strong support from countries outside India and other countries. With the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor construction project in Baalochistan Province, terrorist organizations in the region have launched attacks on Chinese citizens and enterprises, and the prototype of the anti-China political ecology they have jointly built in the region has emerged.
According to foreign media, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which was classified as a terrorist organization by many countries after the attack, declared it responsible for the incident. BLA said a woman named Shari Baloch had launched the bomb attack, and before the incident she suspected tweeting goodbye to people.
(2) Two major regions
The first region refers to Peshawar, the capital of the Cape Province to the north of Brazil, and the surrounding areas. Peshawar is a transportation fortress connecting Central Asia and South Asia, located on the east side of the Khyber Pass on the Ba-Afghan border, is the political, economic and cultural center of the Cape Province, and is also the largest city in the northern region of Brazil. Since the war in Afghanistan, a large number of terrorists or organizations spilling over from Afghanistan have first arrived in Peshawar or infiltrated into other parts of Pakistan through Peshawar. As a result, Peshawar and its surrounding areas have naturally become a high incidence of terrorist attacks.
The second largest region refers to Quetta, the capital of Balochistan province in the south of Brazil, and its surrounding areas. Quetta is the largest city in the southern region of Brazil, the political, economic and cultural center of Balochistan, close to the Afghan border, and one of the trade centers of The Two Countries. It is close to Kandahar, the homeland of the Afghan Taliban, and is greatly influenced by Afghan terrorist organizations, thus becoming a gathering area for terrorist forces.
The above two major directions, especially the two major regions centered on Peshawar and Quetta respectively, have gathered many terrorist organizations and extremist forces, and coupled with their remote and important location, terrorists and members of extremist groups are often more willing to choose to create appalling terrorist incidents here to show their strength and will and form greater influence.
▍ Characteristics of the activities of terrorist organizations in Pakistan
In recent years, the successive violent terrorist attacks in Pakistan have shown that violent terrorist forces are changing in the direction of more diversified power composition, more hidden operational organizations, more flexible methods and means, and a broader area of activity, which has further increased the variables of the terrorist threat. According to the analysis of past terrorist attacks, the latest activities of terrorist organizations in Pakistan mainly show the following characteristics.
(1) Compounding of violent terrorist strategies
Terrorist organizations and extremist forces in Pakistan are flexibly adopting various new strategies in order to cope with the persistent and powerful blows of the government and security forces. The first is to pay more attention to publicity. Individual terrorist organizations have widely distributed terrorist threat pamphlets in the former federally administered tribal areas, deliberately publicizing their political ambitions and the results of their actions, thus winning the sympathy and support of more local populations. The second is to reduce the whole to zero. They have changed from planning and organizing an operation over a longer period of time to arranging more scattered personnel and launching multi-faceted attacks from time to time. Third, psychological warfare tactics are widely used. Some terrorist organizations have publicly declared that they will focus on attacking the Pakistani security forces and police agencies in order to psychologically deter the Pakistani security forces and shake the Pakistani government's determination to fight terrorism. The fourth is to continuously improve the quality of personnel. Some terrorist organizations have begun to recruit the Forces nouvelles, with emphasis on including highly educated university students and postgraduate students as the sources of the new forces of terrorist organizations. Although most of these new forces have not direct contact with other terrorist organizations in the Middle East and the mainland, they often contact the websites of various terrorist organizations, and are deeply poisoned by online "jihad" and Islamic extremist ideology, and then become a group of "lone wolf", well-educated young terrorists.
(2) Diversification of targets
With the Pakistani government's strengthening of protective measures against previous terrorist targets, violent terrorist forces are constantly updating their targets in order to achieve their political goals. The first is to attack key and sensitive targets. In recent years, various terrorist organizations in Pakistan have deliberately targeted some crowded gathering places, including mosques, shopping malls, markets, and stations. The second is to kill important military and political personnel. In retaliation for the Pakistani government's strong crackdown in recent years, pakistan's major terrorist organizations have increasingly targeted the army, police and government personnel, and their intention to oppose the central government has become more obvious. The third is the destruction of critical infrastructure. In recent years, terrorists in Pakistan have increasingly destroyed public infrastructure, and their attacks and destruction of railways, telecommunications facilities, schools, ports, energy facilities and other operations have accounted for more than 50% of the total number of violent terrorist incidents. The fourth is to attack the diplomatic offices of major countries in Pakistan. In recent years, the number of attacks on foreign embassies and consulates in Pakistan has increased year by year. In recent years, there have been a number of attacks on foreign embassies and consulates in Pakistan, which fully demonstrates that foreign diplomatic institutions and personnel in Pakistan have been included in the list of attacks by Pakistani terrorist organizations.
(3) Expansion of the area of activities
The small scope of traditional terrorist attacks has helped the Pakistani government to concentrate on counter-terrorism, so violent terrorist forces have begun to expand their scope of activities. The first is to carry out actions with points and areas. In addition to carrying out activities in the above-mentioned "two major directions and two major regions" in a relatively concentrated manner, Pakistani terrorist organizations and extremist forces have also attached greater importance to relying on a certain location to carry out terrorist activities in their surrounding areas one after another. The second is to go around and carry out terrorist attacks. At present, the scope of activities of Palestinian terrorists is more irregular and covers a wider area. They always try to avoid tight security and move to areas where government security oversight is relatively weak. The data shows that the violent terrorist attacks that occurred in 2020 covered almost all of Pakistan. The third is to go deep into the interior to carry out attacks. Whereas in the past, areas with high levels of violent terrorist incidents were generally close to the border, today's once relatively safe areas in the interior of Pakistan, including those along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, are increasingly threatened by terrorist attacks. This shows that all kinds of terrorist organizations and extremist forces in Pakistan are extending their tentacles into the interior.
(4) Organize and implement meticulously
Terrorist organizations are increasingly sophisticated. First, violent terrorist activities are more secretive. Compared with the past, many terrorist organizations are now stationed in an uncertain location, their actions are erratic and secretive, they are good at maneuvering with the security forces, and they often shoot a gun to change places, so that the Pakistani anti-terrorist forces cannot be defended. Second, action groups are more flexible. Terrorists sometimes "fight alone" or in groups of three or five. They are flexible and maneuverable, often using small groups of multi-channel personnel in groups, waiting for opportunities. The third is to pay attention to the use of high and new technologies. In order to strengthen the concealment of operations and enhance the effectiveness of attacks, terrorists pay more attention to the application of high and new technologies to violent terrorist activities, such as the use of long-range communication equipment and long-range remote control explosive devices. At the same time, the frequency of terrorists using drones is rising rapidly, and terrorists are also adopting new technologies to increase the explosive power of homemade explosive devices. At present, the use of remote-controlled bombs to carry out attacks has become the most commonly used method of attack. In the violent terrorist incidents that occurred in 2020, the incidents that caused more casualties were related to the use of remote-controlled bombs. In addition, a number of terrorist organizations in Pakistan have begun to use the network for personnel training and the use of modern means of communication to direct operations in real time.
▍ The main reason for the threat of terrorism in Pakistan
Pakistan has long faced a dire terrorist situation that has put enormous pressure on the security, stability and social development of its country. This situation is also the result of a multi-faceted superposition of factors, with intertwined domestic and foreign factors exacerbating the terrorist pressures facing Pakistan.
(1) Political factors
Looking at the evolution of terrorism, it can be seen that almost all terrorism is closely related to politics, and Pakistan is no exception, and the political factors that cause Pakistan to currently face the threat of terrorism mainly include four main types.
First, national separatist forces are active.
The ethnic separatist forces in Pakistan have developed rapidly in recent years and have already had an important impact on Pakistan's national development and social stability. At present, the main influence is the ethnic separatist forces located in Balochistan. Since pakistan's independent statehood, separatist forces in Balochistan have been fighting the central government in search of full independence for the province. After entering the new century, the terrorist activities launched by the Balochistan separatist forces have gradually increased, and terrorist organizations have begun to become active. Through the analysis of balochistan separatist organizations, it can be found that most of the more active balochistan terrorist organizations in recent years were established after 2000, and the more representative events are: the establishment of the "Balochistan Liberation Army" in 2000; the establishment of the "Balochistan Republican Army" in 2006; the independence of the "Balochistan Union Army" from the "Balochistan Liberation Army" in 2017; the establishment of the Baloch Raaji Ajoi Sangar in 2018. It is an alliance organization jointly formed by the "Balochistan Liberation Army", the "Balochistan Liberation Front" and the "Balochistan Republican Army". Although most of these terrorist groups have not been established for a long time, they have put a lot of security pressure on the Pakistani government in recent years. Combined with the recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan, it can be found that the number of violent terrorist activities launched by the Balochistan separatist group has increased, and the focus of Chinese personnel and facilities as the focus of attacks shows an accelerated upward trend. First, because they believe that the construction of the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" is to plunder the resources of Balochistan, the second is to put more pressure on the Pakistani government, and the third is to attract higher attention from the international community.
(On April 26, 2022 local time, Pakistan's new Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif arrived at the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan to express condolences for the attack on Chinese)
Second, the Pakistani government supports and participates in the U.S.-led war on terror.
The current terrorist challenges facing Pakistan have a lot to do with the Pakistani government's support for the U.S.-led war on terror. Pakistan has provided strong support to the United States in its war on terror, particularly in the areas of military bases, air and sea routes, intelligence sharing, and logistical support. Prior to this, in order to achieve some strategic goals in Afghanistan and India, the Pakistani government had secretly funded certain religious extremist organizations, so the Pakistani government's sudden participation in the US-led global war on terror was regarded as a betrayal and antagonism by these organizations, which prompted some extremist organizations to transform into armed groups against the Pakistani government, and since then began to launch attacks against the Pakistani government. This includes the Pakistani Taliban. Today, the Pakistani Taliban group has launched several terrorist attacks in Pakistan every year, which is the number one terrorist threat facing the Pakistani government.
Third, the government's ability to govern is weak.
The strength of government governance capacity is crucial to the healthy development of a country, and the weak governance capacity of the Pakistani government is prominently manifested in the slow reform process and weak law enforcement capabilities. Since the beginning of the new century, the process of globalization has developed rapidly, and almost all countries are accelerating their integration into the process of globalization. In order to adapt to the new era of national governance model, countries are also taking corresponding reform measures, while the pace of reform of the Pakistani government is relatively slow, and it cannot keep up with the needs of the development of the situation in time. For example, in 2018, the Pakistani Federally Administered Tribal Area was formally incorporated into Khyber-Pashtun Province, but due to the slow reform process of the government, it not only failed to meet the goals originally envisaged by the government, but also led to a series of new problems. Law enforcement capacity is closely related to terrorist activity and is an important counter-terrorism tool and a concrete means of combating terrorist acts. However, the law enforcement capabilities of the relevant departments in Pakistan have been deeply questioned by the outside world. According to the World Fairness Project Organization's report, the Rule of Law Index 2020, the enforcement capacity of the relevant sectors in Pakistan is quite weak, ranking 120th overall in the rule of law score of the 128 countries and regions covered by the index in 2020. This fully reflects the inefficiency of the Pakistani government's law enforcement, which has not played an effective role in combating crime and providing basic security for society, let alone playing an important role in combating terrorist activities.
Fourth, the problem of political corruption is conspicuous.
Although the Pakistani government has promulgated a number of anti-corruption laws and regulations, such as the Prevention of Corruption Act and the National Accountability Ordinance, there is still a serious problem of corruption in Pakistan, and the relevant laws have not effectively prevented corruption. To a certain extent, the corruption of the Pakistani government has affected its authority and credibility, aggravated social injustice, intensified class contradictions, and some people who have encountered social injustice and are disappointed in the government, especially those living at the bottom, are more likely to be provoked and go to extremes. The World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018 shows that the Pakistani government has a serious problem of corruption. Pakistan ranks 115th out of 137 economies participating in the competitiveness rankings, while corruption ranks first among the 16 main factors affecting business trade, which is the biggest obstacle to Pakistan's business trade. On November 9, 2021, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said in public that the sheer presence of corruption has left Pakistan behind countries like Bangladesh, urging government workers to strengthen their personal morals, because corruption in a society usually begins to spread by government leaders. On July 6, 2018, a special court in Pakistan tried in absentia in the case of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family suspected of corruption and sentenced Sharif to 10 years in prison.
(2) Socio-economic factors
Socio-economic factors have a direct catalytic effect on terrorism, as they relate to the most basic survival problems of individuals and are most likely to affect people. Pakistan's socio-economic situation in recent years has been unoppostic, which has contributed to the development of terrorism in its territory to some extent.
First, the economic development momentum is insufficient to provide the soil for the spread of terrorism.
Since the economic crisis in 2008, Pakistan's economic development has been slow, the average GDP growth rate for more than a decade has been basically around 3%, Pakistan lacks a solid material foundation for resolving complex contradictions, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic since 2020 has dealt a serious blow to pakistan's economy, which has also exacerbated Pakistan's internal contradictions. In turn, terrorism due to economic reasons has become a major obstacle to the healthy development of Pakistan's economy. The successive terrorist attacks in Pakistan have also caused a large number of foreign investors to lose confidence in their security environment, further leading to the loss of momentum in Pakistan's economic development, thus falling into a vicious circle. Foreign direct investment is often the most direct measure of a country's economic development expectations, in fact, before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the investment confidence of global investors has been rapidly declining due to global trade and investment uncertainty, and the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia has hit investor enthusiasm, which is even worse for Pakistan.
Secondly, poverty channels human resources for the development and growth of terrorist organizations.
Poverty is inextricably linked to terrorism and is often cited as one of the root causes of terrorism. In Pakistan, poverty has led to the proliferation of terrorism. Many poor families are unable to provide their children with basic living and educational resources and usually choose to send their children to religious schools, which spread extremist ideas to students in the name of education and raise many people as violent terrorists with extremist ideas. In addition, a considerable number of young people from poor families have directly joined terrorist organizations because they are dissatisfied with the status quo in order to achieve the purpose of improving their lives. In 2014, Pakistan's then-Finance Minister, Ishaq Dahl, said in the release of the 2013-2014 Pakistan Economic Survey that if the $2 minimum daily wage was considered the minimum wage, more than half of the country's population lived below the poverty line. If this data is older, you can look at the data before the arrival of the new crown pneumonia epidemic at the end of 2019. Dr. Pasha, a prominent Pakistani economist, claimed that the poverty rate in Pakistan rose from 31.3% in 2017-2018 to 35% in 2018-2019, an increase of 3.7 percentage points. Due to low economic growth and high double-digit food inflation, combined with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan's latest poverty rate should exceed 40%. Thus, poverty provides a steady stream of human resources to Terrorist organizations in Pakistan to some extent.
Thirdly, the high unemployment rate has provided impetus for the development of terrorist organizations.
In recent years, Pakistan's unemployment rate has generally shown an upward trend, which has a great impact on Pakistan's social stability. The deterioration of the economic situation makes the situation worse, especially for young people, who, after losing their jobs, are easily attracted to terrorist organizations in order to meet their basic living needs and thus become victims of terrorism. The data shows (see Figure 2) that pakistan's unemployment rate has been rising since the 2008 financial crisis, rising from 0.42% in 2008 to 4.65% in 2020. Pakistan's unemployment rate has increased 10-fold over the past 12 years, and overall (especially in the first 8 years) this trend coincides with its terrorist development trend, which further explains the increasing social problems and terrorist activities in the country in recent years.
(3) Religious factors
An analysis of terrorist attacks in Pakistan in recent years shows that a considerable proportion of terrorist attacks are caused by religious factors. The religious factors here are more complex, and the ideas of some religious believers may gradually develop into religious extremist ideas under the guidance of religious leaders, and sects will also launch terrorist attacks against each other due to ideological opposition.
First, the influence of religious extremist ideas. The Pakistani population has long been influenced by religious extremism, which is one of the reasons for the long-term existence of terrorism in Pakistan. This can happen for two reasons. The first is Pakistan's geopolitical location factor. Afghanistan, India, Iran three neighbors have influenced pakistani religious extremism, Afghanistan's long-standing large number of terrorist organization activities have a deep impact on Pakistan; The success of Iran's Islamic Revolution in the 20th century also has a great impact on Pakistan; and the difference with Hinduism has prompted the Pakistani government to use religion as a political tool since the beginning of its founding. The second is religious education within Pakistan. The poorer the place, the more vulnerable it is to religious factors, and because of the large number of poor people in Pakistan, many people have difficulty in receiving formal education, and some local religious leaders and religious schools have become their sources of education. This makes the way a large number of people at the bottom understand the world easily affected by humans. The data shows that a significant number of violent terrorists have been influenced by religious leaders and religious schools. Data from the 2020 Pakistan Security Report shows that of its 146 terrorist attacks throughout the year, 95 were carried out by religious extremist groups, accounting for about 70% of the annual terrorist attacks.
Second, there is a serious confrontation between religious denominations. Incidents of religious extremism in Pakistan have a long history and, although there has been a decrease in such attacks in recent years, this phenomenon has persisted. Pakistan's constitution stipulates that the state religion of Pakistan is Islam, and Muslims account for about 95% of the total population of the country, the vast majority of which are Sunni, Relatively small Shiites, and many sub-sects in the two major sects. In addition, there are some people who believe in non-Islamic religions such as Christianity and Hinduism. Therefore, the situation of religious extremism in Pakistan, which occurs both between various sects within Islam and between Islam and non-Islam, is more complicated. A more typical example is the conflict between Iran-backed Shiites and Saudi Arabian-backed Sunnis in Pakistan after the success of Iran's Islamic Revolution in the 1980s and 1990s, which many observers have called a "proxy conflict" between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Of the 146 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2020, 7 were linked to sectarian clashes, accounting for about 5% of all-year terrorist attacks.
(4) External factors
The large number of terrorist organizations that already existed in Pakistan has left the Government in a state of disarray, but with the increase in contacts between terrorist organizations at home and abroad, coupled with their collusion, the pressure on Pakistan to face the terrorist threat has rapidly increased. Not only does pakistan have an al-Qaida branch, but there is also an Islamic State branch. Some terrorist organizations in Pakistan have close ties with foreign terrorist organizations, the most typical of which is the Pakistani Taliban, which is not only inextricably linked to al-Qaida, but has even declared allegiance to the Islamic State in recent years. Pakistan's complex borders and personnel links with Afghanistan make it relatively easy for pakistani terrorist organizations to communicate with terrorist organizations outside the Pakistani-Afghan border area, which is becoming an area where terrorist organizations are active. The "Khorasan branch of the Islamic State" active in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area has not only established an extensive network of action alliances with terrorist organizations in Pakistan to obtain relevant intelligence information, but also obtained from these terrorist organizations a violent terrorist with rich experience as a stable supplement to strengthen its own strength and ensure high-quality soldiers. In addition, the Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan before the promised time after signing a peace agreement with the Afghan Taliban also upset the dynamic balance that already existed in Afghanistan, leading to a reshuffle of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Since the establishment of the Afghan Taliban Interim Government, various sanctions imposed on it by the United States and Western countries have exacerbated the humanitarian disaster facing Afghanistan, which is likely to make Afghanistan a hotbed of terrorism again, which will also directly affect terrorist activities in Pakistan.
The involvement of external hostile forces poses a challenge to the Pakistani Government's counter-terrorism efforts. As is well known, there has been no truly complete ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and both sides have accused each other of using terrorism to create trouble in their own territory. The Government of Pakistan has repeatedly condemned India's financing of terrorism within its borders, and the Government has provided ample evidence of this. In 2015, Pakistan's military publicly accused India's main intelligence agencies of inciting terrorism in Pakistan. On November 14, 2020, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Public Relations of the Armed Forces made it clear that there was evidence that India had assembled and reorganized the remnants of the terrorist organization that had been suppressed by Pakistan in Pakistan to support its terrorist activities in Pakistan by providing weapons and financing. According to the Pakistan Security Report 2020 released by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), there were 125 cross-border attacks in Pakistan in 2020, of which 114 were from India.
▍ Pakistan's initiatives to address the threat of terrorism
The Pakistani government attaches great importance to combating terrorist activities and has taken many effective measures in the political, economic, cultural, financial, diplomatic and security fields to ensure that the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is stable and far-reaching. Pakistan's Interior Minister, Ijaz Ahmad Shah, said ensuring the security of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project and the overall environment is a top priority for the Pakistani government. At present, Pakistan's effectiveness in effectively responding to the threat of terrorism is due to its practical initiatives in many aspects.
(i) Actively integrate into regional cooperation in addressing regional threats of terrorism
Pakistan's top level has profoundly realized that relying on regional cooperation organizations and giving play to the role of bilateral and multilateral cooperation is one of the effective ways to solve regional security problems. Therefore, the Pakistani side has attached more and more importance to actively strengthening cooperation with relevant countries in the region by advocating the establishment of bilateral or multilateral security dialogue mechanisms. On May 23, 2018, at the meeting of the Legal Expert Group of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Agency held in Islamabad, Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Tamina expressed her willingness to strengthen security cooperation with all SCO member states and work to eliminate the threat of terrorism in the region. In recent years, Pakistan is taking practical actions to actively participate in the activities of various regional organizations, including the "SCO", and focusing on solving regional security problems.
(2) In dealing with domestic terrorist threats, emphasize heavy blows and continuous attacks
Pakistan has long faced two major national security challenges, one is the external threat posed by India and the other is the internal threat caused by terrorism. In particular, the latter has long plagued and seriously affected Pakistan's strategic deployment of concentrating on external threats. Therefore, for many years, Pakistan has always implemented the strategic principle of "protracted and heavy strikes" in the fight against terrorism. While maintaining high pressure on terrorist organizations and extremist forces for a long time, Pakistan has successively concentrated elite security forces, and in 2014 and 2017, it has launched the "Sword" operation and the "elimination of discord" operation nationwide, which has achieved remarkable results and reflected Pakistan's resolute attitude towards counter-terrorism. For example, in Operation Sword, which began in 2014, 992 caches of militants were destroyed in the north Waziristan tribal area alone, 243 tons of explosives and improvised explosive devices were seized through 19,000 intelligence-based operations, a large number of rockets were seized, 7,500 bomb-making sites were destroyed, and some 3,500 illegal militants were killed. At the same time, 490 soldiers were killed by the military. Operations to eliminate discord, which began in 2017, completed 75,894 intelligence-based operations, established 843 new border posts, and eliminated 1,900 illegal militants. In 2020, Pakistan's security forces and law enforcement agencies stepped up their efforts to combat violent terrorists across the country, compared to 119 people eliminated in 2019, and in 2020 they eliminated 158 people and arrested 132 suspected terrorists.
(3) In eliminating hidden dangers of terrorism, persist in using multiple methods in a multi-pronged manner
In order to completely eliminate the hidden dangers of terrorism, Pakistan is adopting a variety of methods and methods. The first is to block the source and curb the new life. Pakistan is vigorously promoting the economic development of terrorist-populated areas, strengthening warning education and propaganda, encouraging young people to join the army, and striving to cut off the breeding conditions for terrorism from the root. The second is to improve the legal punishment mechanism. This is mainly embodied in the improvement of disciplinary laws and regulations, the establishment of counter-terrorism courts, the reinstatement of the death penalty for terrorists who have committed the most heinous crimes, and the acceleration of the trial and conclusion of violent terrorist incidents. Since the reinstatement of the death penalty at the end of 2014, more than 515 people have been hanged, nearly 90 of whom have been executed for terrorist identification, a move that has greatly deterred terrorists. The third is to build a border fence to block the internal and external series. Pakistan began construction of the 2,500-kilometer-long Ba-Afghan border fence in 2017 at a cost of US$550 million, and in February 2019, construction began on the Bah-Iran border fence. At the same time, on the Pakistani side, outposts and bunkers were built at intervals. At present, the fence on the Ba-Afghan border has been 90% complete, and the Bayi border fence has also been completed 50%. The purpose of the fence is to observe and monitor the border situation and to prevent terrorists from entering and leaving the border freely. The fourth is to cut off the source of funds for terrorist organizations. Pakistan's counter-terrorism practice shows that one of the most effective measures to curb terrorist activities is to block terrorist organizations from obtaining financial support. On 12 April 2019, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the Guidelines for the Implementation of Relevant Financial Sanctions, Travel and Arms Bans of the UNITED Nations Security Council to further supervise and guide the federal and provincial governments in implementing the sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council on individuals and organizations, which is another powerful measure taken by the Pakistani government to implement the National Counter-Terrorism Action Plan. According to pakistan's National Counter-Terrorism Agency 2020 annual report, 5,557 bank accounts were blocked throughout the year and another Rs 288 crore were frozen. The fifth is to rectify religious schools and promote educational reform. The Pakistani Government is aware that in order to fundamentally put an end to the breeding and development of terrorist and separatist forces, it is necessary to attach great importance to the study and education of young people and resolutely carry out educational reform. At present, some religious schools have been focused on rectification, and through methods such as checking teachers and reviewing the setting of teaching content, we can prevent children and young people from being infiltrated by extremist ideas and concepts from an early age. However, despite Pakistan's National Counter-Terrorism Action Plan explicitly requiring the government to increase regulation of religious schools, some religious schools are teaching "extremist" teachings. In response, the Pakistani government has strengthened supervision through stricter measures such as reviewing the sources of its funds. The sixth is to adjust and improve the counter-terrorism mechanism and strengthen cross-departmental coordination. The relevant departments in Pakistan have conscientiously summed up and drawn lessons learned from previous counter-terrorism operations, and in view of the inefficiencies in the operation of national and local counter-terrorism mechanisms, slow response, and weak internal cooperation, they are taking corresponding measures to improve the efficiency of cross-departmental cooperation and cooperation by adjusting institutions and improving mechanisms.
▍ Conclusion
After years of counter-terrorism efforts by the Government of Pakistan, the scope and frequency of terrorist activities in its territory have been significantly reduced. While the Pakistani government continues to intensify its crackdown, terrorist organizations are also adopting corresponding coping strategies, the most obvious manifestation of which is that many terrorist organizations have achieved "reorganization and transformation", and the violent terrorist acts against foreign personnel and institutions, especially against China, have increased significantly. Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, as the Pakistani government has lagged behind in its counter-terrorism investment, terrorist activities in Pakistan have shown a resurgence, and religious extremism has also risen, which poses a new challenge to Pakistan's counter-terrorism operations.
It is gratifying that while the terrorism facing Pakistan remains severe, the changes in Afghanistan have provided new opportunities for regional counter-terrorism cooperation. On November 9, 2021, with the coordination of the Afghan Taliban Interim Government, the Pakistani government has reached a one-month ceasefire agreement with the "Bata". This is a good start for Pakistan, after all, "Bata" is arguably the biggest terrorist threat facing the Pakistani government, and nearly half of the terrorist attacks in Pakistan every year are related to "Bata". Although the ceasefire agreement between the two sides has not been renewed, it can be seen that the Pakistani government is fully borrowing the strength of the Afghan Taliban to help solve the terrorist threat it faces, and it is not excluded that this is the inspiration for Pakistan caused by the signing of a peace agreement between the United States and the Afghan Taliban.
The article was originally published in South Asian Studies Quarterly, No. 1, 2022. Welcome to share personally, media reprint please contact the copyright owner.
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