After experiencing a sharp fall at the beginning of the week, stainless steel finally ushered in a rise, as of Wednesday's close, stainless steel futures rose 485 yuan / ton to 19550 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.54%, Shanghai nickel main rose 12000 yuan / ton to 229540 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.52%.
Costs support high prices stabilize and rebound
Spot, morning inquiry, Wuxi private 304 cold-rolled four-foot wool base mainstream quotation of 19800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton from yesterday. Today's futures price rebound superimposed on the market's expectations for pre-May Day replenishment, traders have raised prices, the market as a whole is generally trading, but it has improved compared with the beginning of the week.
Recently, the steel mill high nickel ferro purchase price of 1665 yuan / nickel (to the factory tax), high carbon ferrochrome purchase price in 9600 yuan / 50 base tons (to the factory tax included) nearby, 304 cold rolling theoretical production costs rose to 20000 yuan / ton above, some steel mills production has been in a state of loss, stainless steel cost support is strengthening.
Exchange rate continues to depreciate Nickel stainless steel prices add to the good?
The recent rapid depreciation of the renminbi has also attracted much attention. Over the past week, the dollar has rapidly depreciated from 6.3757 to 6.6085, a depreciation of 3.65%. In theory, the depreciation of the renminbi will lead to an increase in the cost of imported goods, while benefiting the export of goods, considering the different supply and demand fundamentals of commodities, the price trend in the exchange rate depreciation stage is also slightly different.
Tracing the rapid depreciation of the renminbi after the last continuous appreciation of the renminbi, the dollar depreciated from 6.2720 to 6.9468 from April 19 to August 15, 2018, a depreciation of 10.76%.
Corresponding to the price trend of stainless steel and its raw materials at this stage, it is not difficult to find that in the early stage of RMB depreciation, the price of private 304 cold-rolled four-foot raw edge fell slightly, and then rose rapidly, from 14200 yuan / ton to 15900 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.97%, and then the high shock operation. The trend of Shanghai nickel and ferronickel is basically the same as that of stainless steel, and the initial decline is then significantly increased, and the trend of ferrochrome is relatively weak.
Overall, the current high raw material prices, high production costs of steel mills, a strong price mentality, superimposed on the may day before the downstream replenishment expectations, supporting the price continues to move closer to the cost line. Due to the high dependence on the import of stainless steel raw materials, if the exchange rate depreciation continues, the price of raw materials is easy to rise and fall. However, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the current stainless steel factory finished product inventory and social inventory remain high, if the demand under the pressure of epidemic prevention and control continues to be limited, it will also limit the price rebound, and the short-term stainless steel price will maintain a wide range of shocks.