The medical journal The Lancet has published an academic paper on "The World's Population," which predicts that the world's population will peak in 2064, when the total population will reach 9.7 billion, declining year by year from 2065 and expected to fall to 8.8 billion by 2100. Among them Chinese population of 730 million (less than 800 million) has to face a sharp decline in the labor force, in addition to the decline in the number of 23 countries such as Japan, Portugal, Thailand, South Korea and so on.
Some insiders have bluntly said that the decline in the population is no longer a predictable problem, and at the current stage we are facing a more complex situation: the birth rate is a new low, the age structure of the population is different, the two-child birth is fruitless, and the three-child policy is not effective. To put it bluntly, in the context of high prices, high mortgages, and high cost of living, more and more people are entering a low-desire life, preferring to be alone rather than tied to the rules and regulations of marriage. Although this may seem extreme, we have to face a continuous decline in the population as the birth rate and the number of marriages registered enter a new low.
The demographic pattern ushered in a round of reshuffle: the number of negative growth provinces increased, and the reproductive age was repeatedly postponed
According to the surging news reported on March 31, from the 27 provinces and cities that have issued 2021 resident population data, 14 provinces and cities have entered the stage of negative population growth ahead of schedule, accounting for nearly half. You know, when the seven census data were released last year, the provinces and cities with reduced population came from the north without exception, but in 2021, in addition to the three northeastern provinces that everyone knows, the population shrinkage spread from the north, even the central, southern, and southwestern regions without exception. Behind all this, the decline in the birth rate is a core factor in the demographic reversal:
Since the opening of the second child in 2016, the implementation effect has not been satisfactory. Official data show that in 2021, the number of births was 10.62 million, the birth rate was 7.52 ‰, and the net increase was only 480,000, while looking back at 2016, the number of newborns was still 17.86 million. This means that 7.24 million fewer births have been born in the past five years, which is still only after the release of two children and three children, and it is difficult not to suspect that if only one child is counted, the newborn birth rate will be as low as imagined.
The second is the low willingness of young people to have children, which is also an "accomplice". According to incomplete statistics, the average number of births expected by the young group after 90 is only 1.66, which is far lower than that of the post-80s group, and at the same time, in the past decade, the average childbearing age of mainland women has reached 29.13 years old, which is 2.82 years later than in 2000.
It has to be said that this generation of young people is not interested in fertility, which in the long run is bound to lead to a reversal of the demographic structure and a significant reduction in newborns. All kinds of realities have also poured cold water on people, after all, in the era of "no house and no wife", only through open birth can not completely solve the population problem.
1. The high cost of childcare dissuads a large number of young people
The cost of childcare is not only the cost of pregnancy and childbirth, but also the consumption of pregnancy preparation, childbirth and parenting process. In a word, fertility includes medical treatment, living consumption, housing, education and other aspects, and buying a car is the same reason, "it is easy to have children, it is difficult to raise children" to dissuade a group of new couples who have entered the palace of marriage. More importantly, this is still a "confused account", different cities, family classes, determines that there are huge differences in the cost of childcare.
Liang Jianzhang and Ren Zeping experts "birth cost" survey report shows that the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in the country is 485,000 yuan; the average cost of raising children from 0 to university is 627,000 yuan. Note that this is only an average, spread to different cities, such as first-tier cities, the average cost of childcare or more than 2 million yuan, including inflation and other factors, this number may be much more than we think.
2. Changes in women's thinking
With the deepening of the concept of equality in education and gender equality, many women today have received higher education and become strong women with successful careers, so that they are not willing to give up their careers and wash their hands and soup. After all, after women give birth, employment discrimination is not unique, and even some companies explicitly require that they not have children within a few years when hiring employees. In addition, according to a report by Jiupai Finance on April 25, a survey by the Beijing Federation of Trade Unions showed that 41.78% of the male employees interviewed had not taken paternity leave, and 39% of male employees did not know whether the unit provided paternity leave. Even if some employees know that the unit has paternity leave, 64.53% of employees are worried about affecting work income and evaluation and promotion. It can be seen that women in the workplace crisis are more difficult to position than men.
3, the high cost of survival makes young people take care of themselves
According to the report on the debt situation of young people in China, the per capita debt of the post-90s is about 127,000 yuan, and the debt-to-income ratio is 18.5, in other words, this group of young people is saddled with an average debt of 18.5 times the salary. It should be noted that this is the 2019 report, if the superposition of the past two years of turmoil factors, people's incomes are reduced, employment tension and other issues, the debt situation may be heavier. Fang Shujun believes that under the trend that most people are ahead of the consumption, young people have low ability to resist temptation, and it is easy to fall into the consumption trap, in the long run, the debt accumulates more and more, eating by themselves has become a problem, where is the spare money to raise children?
4, high housing prices scare off a lot of young people
From the traditional concept, "starting a family" and "establishing a career" have a closely related lip and tooth relationship, at this time, as a necessity for marriage and family, the house naturally becomes a very important place at this stage. Ren Zeping concluded in the "China Fertility Report" that the impact of housing costs on fertility accounts for up to 42%, ranking ahead of education costs and medical costs; misreading, Zhang Qidi's research found that the rise in house prices has a negative correlation with fertility willingness, and for every 1% increase in the average housing price, the willingness to have a baby drops by about 0.2.
Seeing this, do you think that the decline in the birth rate is the scourge of high housing prices? In fact, in this "housing theory" society, there is no house, such as employment, study, medical treatment will be treated differently, if you reluctantly buy a house, it will make the personal income greatly reduced. For example, according to the per capita living demand of 39 square meters, a family of three will have a house of 117 square meters, so the cost of buying a house will be about 1.12 million (calculated according to the average price of the latest housing 9552 / square). In contrast, the per capita disposable income in the first quarter was only 10345 yuan / flat, which seems to be difficult to compete with high house prices, and there is a pressure on loan repayment in the later stage, so that young people may continue to delay the birth time even after buying a house.
In order to cope with aging and boost the willingness of the Chinese people to have children, after the birth of the second child was fruitless, it finally "shot" to the housing
Specifically, in response to the strategy of boosting fertility, there are 3 actions: 1 regulation of high housing prices, financial regulation last year, opening the price limit of second-hand houses, etc., house prices returned to within 10,000 yuan; 2 vigorously increase the supply of affordable housing, focusing on large cities with net population inflow, and build 2.4 million sets of affordable rental housing throughout the year; 3 increase subsidies, at present, Gansu, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces have "shot" to housing, and permanent families with two or three children are given cash subsidies when purchasing commercial housing in counties and urban areas.
On the other hand, the current severe demographic situation, countless experts put forward valuable opinions, understanders believe that on March 15, Wang Hong, director of the Shanghai Social Security Research Center, put forward the new proposal for 2022, which is reasonable and can best be approved by parents: for example, multi-child families applying for public rental housing have priority and differentiated access to housing preferences; establish medical funds to increase subsidies for couples who receive assisted conception treatment; differentiated individual tax deductions and economic subsidies, covering from pregnancy to 18 years old or the end of academic education.
Fang Said jun has something to say, why these suggestions can be recognized, in Fang Said Jun's view, the main reason is that the advice system is comprehensive and comprehensive, covering medical care, housing, childcare costs, etc., can be described as starting from the base point to solve the problem. What do you think of this new 2022 proposal?
The pictures used in this article are from the Internet, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete. The article is original for the "Daily Room Talk", and it is strictly forbidden to reprint plagiarism, and it must be deeply investigated if it is found. (Written by: Wind Wind)