Europe has been shouting about the Russian oil embargo for two months, and it has not yet made up its mind to give itself a hard time. However, the people at the bottom can't sit still.
According to the US media report on the 21st, in order to maintain economic operation and prevent further surge in fuel prices, the EU's Russian oil imports have not decreased but increased. Oil exports from Russian ports to EU member states have averaged 1.6 million barrels per day so far in April, up significantly from an average of 1.3 million barrels per day in March, according to ship trackers. Among them, the import volume of Romania, Estonia, Greece and other countries even doubled compared with the previous month.
Not only that, but in order to circumvent Western criticism and sanctions, an "opaque market" for buying Russian oil is taking shape. More and more Russian oil is being shipped to "unknown destinations" mixed with oil from other tankers, and many Western traders try to steal oil by "hiding the sky" through this method of circumventing sanctions.
Politicians' mouths will deceive people, and the media's mouths will deceive people, but media data will not, especially if they do not involve positions. So we can see that European politicians shout "sanctions on Russia, embargo On Russian energy" in various speeches, talks, conferences, and press conferences every day, asking what the economy will do, "I don't know"; experts are estimating every day how much Europe will suffer if it embargoes Russian energy, how many companies are facing bankruptcy, how many market capitalization is facing evaporation, how many workers are facing unemployment, and how many industries are facing suspension.
If the upper echelons are so unkind, then don't blame the lower levels for being unjust. According to tanker tracker TankerTracker, oil shipments from Russian ports to EU member states have risen to an average of 1.6 million barrels per day so far in April, compared with an average of 1.3 million barrels per day in March. Another commodity data analytics agency, Kpler, showed a similar trend, rising from an average of 1 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels in mid-March.
This is no longer possible to argue from a realistic level what Europe can do to completely separate from Russian energy. Since the end of February, Russia's largest crude oil Ural crude oil market premium began to go all the way up, frequently breaking through the bottom line, until now, the average price of Russian Ural crude oil is 20 to 30 US dollars lower than the benchmark price of Brent crude oil, this discount is simply to break the bone, how can European importers put such a large piece of fat meat without nibbling, but to choose those expensive, transportation is not as convenient as Russian crude oil products?
In order to circumvent possible new restrictions, many Western oil buyers have also accelerated the process of Russian oil import business. Multinational oil giants and commodity trading companies such as Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and Spain's Repsol are chartering ships to ship to the European Union from Russian oil export terminals in the Baltic and Black Seas, the report said. Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, noted that Western buyers are buying even more Russian oil than they did before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, "not just because of their long-term contracts with Russia, but also because of cheap energy." These businesses will continue until the West imposes an outright embargo. ”
In fact, the current rush to buy Russian crude oil, as early as last month, Russia's state-owned oil pipeline company Transneft predicted, Transneft's plan announced at the end of last month showed that its plan to load 2.26 million barrels of crude oil per day from three western ports in April, which will be the highest level since June 2019, a plan that has surprised many traders, because according to the main tone of European public opinion now, Europe will gradually reduce its dependence on Russian oil The purchase volume should be less and less, but at that time Transneft did the opposite, directly increasing the planned export volume by 22%, which was unbelievable at the time.
But now, Russia has proven itself right, and Driven by huge demand, Russia's oil imports in Europe in April have increased without decreasing. Crude oil shipments to Romania, Estonia, Greece and Bulgaria more than doubled from the March average in April. As one of Europe's largest buyers of Russian oil, the Netherlands' oil imports have also soared significantly, rising to 650,000 barrels per day from an average of 500,000 barrels per day last month. Let them buy like this again, next month Transneft's planned export volume will have to be mentioned, unless Europe officially introduces a Russian energy ban, or the United States and NATO lift the blockade on Russia, or these bulk trading companies and multinational oil giants suddenly find that they consciously follow the attitude of their homeland to abandon Russian crude oil.
However, as far as it seems, these possibilities are almost non-existent. Therefore, this time Russian crude oil is destined to earn hemp.
However, if these people want to increase the import of Russian crude oil, they will inevitably collide with the "political correctness" at home. Engage in a "black market". The Wall Street Journal said the amount of oil shipped from Russian ports to "unknown destinations" in April was increasing. Unlike those oils that have a clear destination mark on shipping documents, more than 11 million barrels of oil are unusually loaded onto tankers without a predetermined route. In mid-April, a Liberian-flagged tanker took over three shipments of oil from ships in Russian ports. Ship tracking data shows the tanker departed from Incheon, South Korea, and is now heading to the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Obviously, this is engaging in middlemen, "as long as I don't take over this oil from Russia, then I have no enemies." ”
The use of "unknown destination" markings often means that oil on board ships is transferred at sea to larger tankers, an "age-old means of circumventing sanctions" that has been used by countries where oil exports are subject to Western sanctions, such as Iran and Venezuela. Through this "cross-sea" transshipment operation, Russian oil can be mixed with other oils loaded on board, thus "blurring" the source of oil to avoid sanctions. Some traders also revealed that many refined products such as "Latvian blend" and "Turkmenistan blend" supplied on the market are likely to contain a large amount of Russian oil.
"There are policies at the top and countermeasures at the bottom." As the old Chinese saying goes, don't lie to me. Capital is profit-seeking, which determines that in many cases, the interests will conflict with the national plan, in capitalist countries, capital is right, which determines that the state can not punish them from any angle, they only need to care about deepening the public opinion condemnation caused by the exchange with Russia, and the resulting stock price collapse. So, as long as they are there, we will continue to congratulate Russia's crude oil business on its booming.