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After experiencing ten times the rapid growth from 2007 to 2017, the mobile phone industry has grown weakly in recent years, the overall shrinkage of the market has moved forward, and now the mobile phone industry has fully entered the era of the stock market, and the industry leaders generally predict that this year and the next two or three years of industry decline has become a foregone conclusion.
In addition, the mobile phone industry is also facing multiple challenges such as the new crown epidemic, rising raw material prices, and prolonging the consumer replacement cycle, so in this context, the industrial chain is under collective pressure, and three breakthrough paths for enterprises have quietly emerged.
The replacement cycle has been extended to three years
Looking back at the development process of the mobile phone industry, in 2007, the annual shipment of smart phones in the world was only 124 million units, while in 2017, it exceeded 1.56 billion units, an increase of more than 10 times, and the annual new market size reached trillions of yuan.
2017 was the culmination of global smartphone shipments, but since 2019, the deployment of 5G has opened up new space. In July 2019, 5G mobile phones in the Chinese market accounted for only 0.2% of total shipments, and by 2021, the annual shipment volume was 266 million units, accounting for 75.9%.
However, the 5G replacement tide has not stimulated the overall demand for the mobile phone industry to increase significantly, and the overall shrinkage of the mobile phone industry market in recent years has moved forward.
On April 21, data agency Canalys released the first quarter of 2022 global mobile phone market report shows that in the first quarter of this year, due to the poor economic situation and seasonal sluggish demand, global smartphone shipments fell by 11% year-on-year, only Apple and Samsung increased compared with last year.
In this regard, Hu Baishan, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Vivo, told the Securities Times reporter that there are two reasons for the decline in the global smartphone market in the first quarter of this year, one is the decline of the Chinese market, the mobile phone market has completely entered the stock market, if there is no good product innovation to attract, the consumer replacement cycle will be longer and longer. Courtesy photo: Zheng Yu
"I remember the earliest [phone replacement cycle] was 16-18 months, then 20-24 months, and most recently 36 months. This is because the product is not innovative, can not attract users, the speed of user replacement is extended. Hu Baishan said.
According to the data previously released by the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in the first two months of this year, the shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market fell by 22.6% year-on-year, of which february shipments fell by 31.7% year-on-year, and the shipments of domestic brand mobile phones fell by 34.7% year-on-year.
From the perspective of overseas markets, Hu Baishan believes that the first quarter is still subject to chip shortages, from April last year to March this year, ordinary 4G mobile phones (less than 1198 yuan) almost no supply led to a decline in industry shipments.
Hu Baishan believes that the second reason is the impact of objective factors such as the epidemic. The epidemic not only affects the normal operation of offline stores and the normal distribution of online sales channel logistics, but also affects the economic income of consumers, which in turn affects people's consumer demand for mobile phones.
"The total volume of consumer electronics in the next 2-3 years is still relatively weak." Hu Baishan forecast.
Li Jie, president of OnePlus China, also told the Securities Times reporter that indeed the entire mobile phone market is currently declining, macro factors, short-term epidemic factors, as well as the speed of the overall update, the quality of mobile phones and other factors superimposed, resulting in the entire market replacement cycle continues to be extended, thus affecting sales.
The performance of the industrial chain in the first quarter was under pressure
While the demand in the industry is weak, enterprises are also facing upward pressure on raw material prices.
Li Jie revealed to reporters that since the epidemic, the price of chips in the mobile phone industry has continued to rise, on the one hand, the demand for electric vehicles has superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, resulting in a sharp increase in overall demand; on the other hand, due to the relationship between the economy and the epidemic, the supply of chips has contracted a bit. In addition, some other industrial devices in the mobile phone industry are becoming more and more expensive.
Li Jie believes that from the current point of view, the trend of rising raw material prices in the industry will continue, but the mobile phone industry will not have a collective price increase in the future, and the head enterprises will generally use their own technology, resources and supply chain advantages to digest related costs, and try not to transmit costs to downstream consumers.
Song Yiwen, director of the Glory Supply Chain Management Department, told the Securities Times reporter that the price of raw materials in the industry has risen objectively, such as mobile phone batteries, etc. The price increase is obvious, the main reasons include energy price changes, logistics, epidemic and other factors, but the company and most partners have signed a medium- and long-term cooperation program, so the overall impact is controllable, and the price of raw materials is risen by strengthening the research and development of new materials and new technologies.
The image is from the idea of a figure worm
The rise in raw material prices has been reflected in the performance of enterprises in the industrial chain.
Lens Technology (300433) achieved a total revenue of 9.334 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, down 22.15% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 411 million, down 134.12% year-on-year. The company said that due to the comprehensive factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations and epidemic situation, the demand for some customers' terminal markets has decreased, the company's operating income has decreased year-on-year, and its benefits have decreased; due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, it has had a certain impact on product delivery, logistics costs, procurement costs, epidemic prevention expenses and related expenses.
At the same time, Lens Technology said that although factors such as repeated epidemics, fluctuating demand, rising prices, and rising labor costs in the short term have caused greater pressure on the industry, which has put pressure on the capital flow of midstream enterprises and fluctuated performance, short-term challenges have not changed the good situation of the company's medium- and long-term healthy development.
300782 latest expected to achieve revenue of 1.330 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 12.43% year-on-year; net profit of 441 million to 466 million yuan, down 5.35% to 10.43% year-on-year, due to the increase in supply chain prices, and with the market expansion of receiving-side module products for sub-3GHz, the company's product sales structure changes led to a decline in overall product gross margin.
Gongda Electroacoustic (002655) also recently estimated that in the first quarter of this year, a total of 235 million yuan of revenue, an increase of 1.63% year-on-year; net profit of 19.34 million yuan, down 22.22% year-on-year.
Apple industry chain leader Luxun Precision (002475) in 2021 has been the situation of increasing revenue without increasing profits, in 2021 its revenue increased by 66.6% year-on-year, but the net profit fell by 2.12% year-on-year, Luxun Precision said that in the context of the repeated global epidemic, in the face of the upstream industry chain "lack of core materials", raw material prices and transportation costs unilaterally up and other severe macroeconomic situations and some products mass production landing and shipment time delay to varying degrees, etc. Multiple factors have led to an increase in the company's operating costs. However, Luxshare Precision expects net profit in the first quarter of this year to increase by 25% to 30% year-on-year.
Among the top 15 companies in the mobile phone industry chain listed company loss ranking in 2021 according to Jiwei Consulting, the total loss of the top 15 companies has reached at least 10.6 billion yuan and up to nearly 15 billion yuan.
Specifically, there are mainly OFILM, Dongxu Optoelectronics, Visionox, *ST Star, the loss of these four is more than 1 billion yuan, followed by Chunxing Seiko, Zhiyun Shares, Changying Precision, Derun Electronics, the loss of more than 400 million yuan, followed by Guangxin Materials, Su Daweige, Carbon Technology, Baoming Technology, Jinfu Technology, Dafu Technology, Hongxin Electronics.
Jiwei Consulting believes that one of the important reasons for the loss is affected by the changes in the smart phone industry, resulting in a rapid decline in the demand for individual enterprise products in the market, the failure of enterprises to keep up with the development of market changes, and in the case of declining market demand, industry competition has intensified, price wars have become the norm, resulting in a great impact on profitability.
The three paths of "self-help" in the industrial chain emerged
Under the background of poor industry environment and weak market growth, how to achieve better development of mobile phone industry chain enterprises has attracted much attention.
From the perspective of the reporter's observation, there are three main paths for the current innovation breakthrough of the mobile phone industry chain, one is to maintain continuous innovation in the stock market, and to cultivate the subdivision track, including games and high-end folding screen markets.
Such as one plus, OPPO, vivo are all in the field of mobile phones, because China has the world's largest mobile game users, iResearch data shows that in 2019 has reached 620 million people, has been close to nearly half of the total number of mobile Internet users in China.
For another example, at present, the current domestic mainstream mobile phone manufacturers collectively break through the folding screen mobile phone market, and the goal is directed at the high-end mobile phone market monopolized by Apple and Samsung to improve the operating profits and operating quality of enterprises. At present, only Apple has not launched a folding screen mobile phone, and the outside world speculates that it will be launched in 2025, but Apple does not need to rush to launch a folding screen mobile phone, because it is itself the protagonist of the global high-end market.
Courtesy photo: Zhao Naiyu
Although the overall shipment of folding screen mobile phones in the world is not large, the industry is generally more optimistic about its future. Hu Baishan, executive vice president and chief operating officer of vivo, believes that the folding screen is an incremental market segment of the smart phone market segment in the next 2-3 years, and the growth rate will be very fast, and it is expected that there will be 10 times the growth in the next few years. Relevant data show that in 2021, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones will reach 9 million, an increase of 200% year-on-year. Honor CEO Zhao Ming is more optimistic, he believes that this year's folding screen mobile phone market can achieve ten times the order of growth.
The second path is to collectively increase the layout of the IOT field, to help enterprises improve their performance with the market expansion of more mobile phone peripheral products, and to occupy the IOT market in advance, which is what the world's mainstream mobile phone brands are making efforts, whether it is Huawei, which has suffered from the decline of mobile phone business due to US restrictions, or other mobile phone brands that have not been affected, without exception.
The third path is to develop new energy vehicle-related business, hoping to empower and share new energy vehicles through their own past accumulation of industrial chains, technologies, resources, etc. in the industry, such as Huawei, Luxun Precision, OPPO, vivo, Apple, Xiaomi, Anjie Technology (002635).
Among them, Luxun Precision, Huawei, and Anjie Technology are positioned as parts and solution providers in the field of smart cars; OPPO and vivo are currently positioned to provide all-scenario solutions for smart cars; Apple and Xiaomi are building complete vehicles.
Even some companies have gained in the field of new energy vehicles. On April 21, Anjie Technology disclosed that its new energy vehicle business accounted for 5.98% of the company's business revenue in 2019, 16.30% of the new energy vehicle business in 2020, and 23.17% of the new energy vehicle business in 2021, and the company's new energy vehicle business grew year by year.
Anjie Technology expects that with the continuous development of the new energy automobile industry and the continuous maturity of new energy vehicle technology, the new energy automobile accessories industry has also shown a high prosperity trend.
Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, is firmly optimistic about the mobile phone industry, and he believes that the mobile phone industry is still promising, and there are still more things to innovate.
The epidemic will not affect the normal production of the industrial chain
Since the beginning of this year, the new crown epidemic has broken out in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing and other places, and Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places have also stopped work and production in the city for a time, has this situation affected the supply chain of the mobile phone industry?
In this regard, Glory told reporters that Glory has carried out supply chain layout in advance for the epidemic, such as a device multi-supplier, multi-region, domestic and foreign layout, etc., and in terms of logistics, Glory has launched a multi-port processing program, and even prepared a variety of solutions such as air transportation and shipping from Hong Kong to the mainland, so its supply chain has been very affected by the epidemic, and the current glory production and delivery are stable.
Courtesy photo: Zhao Lianda
The person in charge of another mobile phone company told reporters that the Shanghai epidemic has not yet had a great impact on the company, many of the company's chips are mainly Qualcomm and MTK, the production is mainly in Taiwan, some other materials may be affected by some, but at present, it has not caused a particularly big problem, as for whether the development trend of the shanghai epidemic will have a great impact on the company's supply chain, it is not easy to judge for the time being.
Recently, Goertek (002241) said in an investor survey that the repeated outbreak of the new crown epidemic in some areas has brought some inconveniences to the company's personnel travel, logistics and transportation, etc., but it has not had a significant impact on the company's overall production and operation, and the production and operation activities of the company's various business sectors are in normal and smooth development, and the company is confident that while responding to the new crown epidemic, it will ensure the stable development of the company's business activities.
Anjie Technology recently said that the current epidemic has affected the speed of the company's supply and marketing logistics, but the company's overall production and operation remain basically normal. The epidemic has a certain impact on the company's second quarter, after the end of the epidemic control impact, the company strives to make up for the orders that are delayed in shipment, and the specific needs to be comprehensively assessed according to the epidemic prevention and control and production and operation, and the company will actively cooperate with the government's epidemic prevention and control requirements and measures to ensure the safety of employees, maintain normal production, and try its best to minimize the impact of the epidemic.
Jingyan Technology (300709) said that since March 2022, the situation of the new crown epidemic in China has repeated, which has brought certain challenges to the company's production and operation, but as of now, the company's overall production and operation have basically returned to normal.
From the demand side, due to the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter, the demand of some downstream customers was delayed, and some orders will be extended to the second quarter of delivery. From the production and operation side, in the early stage of the outbreak of the epidemic in Changzhou, the company's management responded quickly and placed nearly 3,000 employees for closed management, ensuring the continuous and normal progress of production and operation.
From the perspective of supply chain and logistics and transportation, since mid-March, logistics has been interrupted or declined due to the impact of the epidemic, resulting in the company's inability to ship in time. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in Changzhou, the company's logistics and supply chain tensions have improved. At present, in addition to the epidemic areas that are still in shanghai, Suzhou and other places, the company's overall delivery and logistics companies have basically returned to normal. Overall, at this stage, the company's production and operation have not been significantly adversely affected by the new crown epidemic, and the overall operating level is in good condition.
Gongda Electroacoustic (002655) recently told investors that the company has actively taken various countermeasures to ensure the normal production and operation of the epidemic, and the current epidemic has little impact on the company, but the chip shortage has led to an extension of the chip procurement cycle and tight supply, which has a certain impact on the company's business, and the company's supply chain management department has taken a positive strategy for this.
Source: Company e (ID: lianhuacaijing)
Editor: Wan Jianyi
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