The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has lasted for two months now, is considered the most serious event in European geopolitics since the Cold War.
So, will this conflict lead to the re-emergence of opposing camps in the world and the opening of some form of "new Cold War"? How will conflicts affect economic globalization, world multipolarization and global governance? Will the United States and the West intensify their efforts to contain China? Hear what the experts have to say.
Will the opposing camp re-emerge
Experts believe that the current international situation is not the same as during the Cold War, and the reluctance to engage in camp confrontation is the aspiration of the international community. The global attractiveness and political influence of the United States and the West are declining, and the possibility of the world redividing the opposing camps is becoming less likely.
This is the result of the vote at the emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly on Ukraine, filmed at UN Headquarters in New York on April 7. Xinhua News Agency reporter Xie Yi took a photo
Zhang Yunling, a member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with reporters that at present, the historical conditions of the Cold War are not available, and in addition to the traditional Western forces such as the Group of Seven and the European Union, the rest of the world remains neutral in the majority, and there are no two opposing camps that are clearly distinguished. What is happening now is not the "who lives and who dies" dispute during the Cold War, but the dispute between Russia and the United States and the West over "who wins and who loses".
Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told reporters that although the West has copied some of the practices of the Cold War to some extent, its current policy toward Russia is different from that of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe at that time. As can be seen from the UNITED Nations vote, there is currently no opposing camp. He believes that in the short term, it is difficult to have two parallel systems of equal strength and security confrontation.
Kang Jie, an associate researcher at the Institute of Eurasia at the China Institute of International Studies, believes that the confrontation between the United States and the West and Russia is not a "new Cold War." He said that Western sanctions against Russia are only hegemonic "group fights", not group confrontation, and anti-sanction countries and anti-Russian countries have not formed opposing political and military camps.
Kangjie believes that the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to an increase in regional influence and opportunism among the middle powers such as Poland, Turkey, Japan, and Australia.
However, Zhang Baijia, former deputy director of the Party History Research Office of the CPC Central Committee, said in an interview with reporters that judging from the current development of the international situation, the possibility of the world falling into a "new Cold War" cannot be ruled out, although this is something we do not want to see. Some anti-China forces in Western countries, especially in the United States, are deliberately building an anti-China alliance. The West is more or less using the Cold War mentality to deal with the current international contradictions.
How globalization will evolve
Experts believe that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and the West tried to isolate and contain Russia, but because Russia is one of the world's major powers, the isolation and containment of the West will further aggravate the trend of anti-globalization, and will also reduce the effectiveness of global governance institutions such as the United Nations, the WTO, and the G20. The regionalization, collectivization and fragmentation of global governance will become more prominent, and the opportunities facing non-Western global governance mechanisms are greater than the challenges.
A boy watches a globe in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2010. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhu Wei
Kang Jie pointed out that the United States and the West use their privileges as defenders of global economic infrastructure (such as the SWIFT system) to suppress opponents, but in fact use the logic of national security to suppress the logic of capital on which globalization is based. He believes that future globalization may have multiple characteristics: on the one hand, the old globalization characterized by the free flow of capital, the global allocation of production factors, and the free trade in goods and services can still be maintained to a certain extent; on the other hand, the United States and the West will more weaponize globalization and interdependence in the future, and take advantage of the inherent imbalances of globalization to seek benefits. Globalization, in areas such as key and emerging technologies and digital infrastructure, may fall back to the traditional geoeconomic paradigm dominated by countries and groups of countries.
Cui Hongjian believes that Western sanctions against Russia are more destructive to future global governance, globalization may degenerate into regionalization and collectivization, using political identity and political groups to divide the economic division of labor, and the political attributes of economic activities are getting stronger and stronger.
He believes that in the future, in the field of traditional trade and low-level investment, it will maintain basic globalization attributes, but in terms of high-end industries and supply chains, collectivization will become more and more significant.
Other analysts argue that countries will race to build their own economic systems and regional business alliances, and that the balance of power in the global economy will be reconfigured.
How the multipolarization of the world has evolved
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the international situation was already in a period of turbulence and change, and the major changes unprecedented in a century accelerated their evolution. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, experts generally believe that the multipolar trend of the world is unstoppable, but after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, some new characteristics will appear.
Zhang Yunling pointed out that the world will not form an international pattern completely dominated by the United States, but will show the characteristics of diversity. A considerable number of countries have stepped on multiple boats and are reluctant to take sides. European countries will be more united, but countries like Belarus, Serbia, Hungary and others will not turn to the West.
Kang Jie believes that in the long run, the trend of multipolarization in the world will not change. The "Great West" of U.S. cobbled together sanctions against Russia are just two small traditional circles, namely NATO and members of the Asia-Pacific alliance system. China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Argentina and other G20 countries, ASEAN countries except Singapore, and the vast number of developing countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America have not followed.
Cui Hongjian predicted that in the short term, Europe will still maintain Eu-Russian energy cooperation and economic and trade relations with China, but the priority order of European strategic autonomy has changed - prioritizing the removal of energy dependence on Russia and increasing dependence on the security of the United States.
A security officer is on duty at United Nations Headquarters in New York on 22 September 2020. Photo by Xinhua news agency reporter Wang Ying
In view of the strong inertia of historical development, the mutual cognition of major powers is mutually reinforcing and mutually shaping. Cui Hongjian pointed out that how China and the United States get along will largely determine the direction of the global pattern in the future. If China and the United States struggle endlessly, objectively speaking, the world will be forced to move toward polar opposition; if China and the United States fight in the window period and do not break, then the trend of the world pattern moving toward multipolarization will be strengthened.
Source: Xinhua International Headlines