On the 24th local time, the "decisive battle" of the French general election was launched between the current president Macron and the candidate of the far-right party "National Union" Le Pen.
The French presidency is five years old, and the elections are held on a "two-round majority system". In the first round of voting held on the 10th, because no one won more than half of the votes directly, Macron and Le Pen, who ranked in the top two votes, entered the second round of competition, eliminating the other 10 competitors.
According to CCTV news, at 20:00 local time on April 24, the second round of voting in the French presidential election ended. The results of the earliest export polls released by the French media show that macron, the current president and candidate of the Republican Front Party, won the election with 58.2% of the vote. Macron became the first French president to be successfully re-elected in 20 years after Chirac. In the 2002 presidential election, then-President Jacques Chirac defeated his opponents to win re-election. His opponent was None other than Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Le Pen, the candidate for the "National Union", received 41.8 percent of the vote. This is the second time she has played against Macron in the second round after she reached the second round of the 2017 election.
According to Interface News, for Macron and France, the presidential election is only the first step. Macron will remain under pressure in the upcoming legislative elections to be held in June.
The BBC commented that it was a historic victory, but Macron had divided France. In particular, Mélang-sur-Mernchon and his supporters, who performed well in the first round, hope that after repelling the far right, they will not put all the power in the hands of Macron alone.
If any opposition party wins then, Macron will have to appoint a prime minister from that party. At that time, his power will be greatly weakened.
Macron: We will try to build a more independent France
and a stronger Europe
According to CCTV news, on the evening of April 24, local time, after the victory of French President Emmanuel Macron, he said on his personal social media that in the past five years, France has experienced various changes, including happy times, difficult times, and unprecedented crises. He thanked the French people for their trust in him to continue to lead France for the next five years.
Image source: CCTV News
According to Interface News, the night's victory anthem was held in the Champ de Mars in front of the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Macron choked up at one point during his speech. He said efforts would be made to build a more independent France and a stronger Europe.
He said he knew that many people voted for him not in favor of his programme, but only "to prevent the far right from coming to power" He will be "the president of every Frenchman", not "the spokesman of a certain political party". He would "effectively respond to the anger and disagreements of far-right voters" and call on his supporters to be "kind and respectful" as the country is being devastated by "suspicion and division."
According to CCTV news, on the evening of the 24th local time, European Council President Michel, European Commission President von der Leyen and European Parliament Speaker Metzola posted on social media congratulating Macron on his successful re-election as President of France.
Michel said that "in these turbulent times, we need a stable Europe and a France that is committed to making the EU more independent." Von der Leyen said he looked forward to continuing to promote good cooperation with Macron. Metzola said she looks forward to working with Macron to tackle the challenges posed by today's increasingly uncertain world.
Earlier, Macron advised voters who had not yet made up their minds not to "stay at home" on the day of the polling day, but to go to the polls to avoid results like the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election.
"Think about the 'Brexit' referendum and the HOURS Presidential election where those Britons and Americans said, 'I'm not going to vote, what's the need?'" he said. I tell you, they regretted it the next day. If you want to avoid unimaginable situations, you have to choose for yourself. ”
He dreamed of becoming a novelist
He was only 39 years old when he was crowned at the Elysée Palace, the youngest president in the history of the French Fifth Republic. He broke into politics as a "centrist" and vowed to change the traditional political landscape of France, which is either left or right. He called himself a "reformer" and promised to "reinvigorate France" and build a more confident and stronger France. He set aside worldly prejudices and married a high school teacher who was 24 years older than him, and the story of the two became known as "The Romance of France".
He is the current president of France, Emmanuel Macron.
French President Emmanuel Macron Image source: Visual China
According to the Beijing News, in high school, Macron dreamed of becoming a novelist, presenting his romantic imagination with words. But he became a politician and "accidentally" reached the pinnacle of French politics.
But his "romance" hasn't changed. He dreamed of changing France's depressed economy and regaining its strength and self-confidence. He envisions changing Europe's inaction and putting Europe back in the spotlight on the international stage.
He has introduced a lot of reforms in the last 5 years and has gone through a lot of "storms". He was labeled "rich president," slapped by a French man, and ousted by hundreds of thousands of "yellow vests."
When Macron defeated far-right candidate Le Pen in May 2017, almost the whole of France, and all of Europe, cheered for him.
Five years later, at the age of 44, he once again defeated Le Pen in the decisive battle of the presidential election.
Macron: The retirement age will be postponed and taxes will be cut
Macron previously unveiled his re-election campaign platform. In the 24-page campaign platform, Macron's governance plan for the next five years focuses on investment, economic and social reforms, and tax cuts, and all the initiatives in the platform are expected to cost 50 billion euros per year. These expenditures will be met by savings from incomes from France's economic growth, retirement system and unemployment insurance reforms, and local government agencies.
On April 21, French President Emmanuel Macron campaigned in the northern suburb of Paris in the province of Seine-Saint-Denis. Image source: CCTV News
According to first finance, Zhao Yongsheng, director of the French Economic Research Center and professor of finance at the National Institute of Opening Up to the Outside World of the University of International Business and Economics, said in an interview with reporters that compared with five years ago, Macron's campaign platform has both unchanged and changed. The unchanged thing is that Macron has continued to support emerging industries and aims to reform the inherent institutional problems in retirement, pension and other fields. The change is that the focus of support for emerging industries has changed slightly, and the intensity of reform has become stronger.
Macron said that if re-elected, he will expand defense spending, support the development of the electric vehicle and battery industry chain, promote the development of renewable energy and nuclear energy, and increase agricultural investment. At the same time, EDF will be fully nationalized.
Macron has once again extended its reform tentacles to retirement and pensions. He proposed to push the retirement age for French people from the current 62 to 65. But he also said he would raise the country's minimum pension to 1,100 euros a month.
In addition, Macron has also promised to implement a package of tax reduction measures, including adjusting the inheritance tax and reducing the tax for the self-employed. The tax cuts total €15 billion a year, half of which will benefit businesses and half of households.
Zhao Yongsheng believes that compared with the campaign platform five years ago and the subsequent governance policy, Macron's campaign platform has two major characteristics: first, it continues the previous reform plan of the economic and social system and is more tough; second, it still emphasizes investment in emerging industries, but it supports the energy industry more strongly, and pays more attention to the "independence" of the energy sector.
In his 2017 campaign platform, Macron advocated a 50 percent reduction in France's nuclear energy by 2025 and a focus on industrial policy on revitalizing industry. In 2019, Macron formally reformed the pension system. In the "White Paper on the Reform of the Retirement System", he advocated the merger of the multi-track pension system into a unified points system.
Zhao Yongsheng believes that the reason why Macron still wants to promote the reform of the retirement system is because it is an obstacle to France's economic development. Macron's current stance is stronger than it was in 2017 because he was only a political amateur at the time and needed to win hearts and minds. And once a second term begins, Macron will have a stronger foundation for reform.
At present, France adopts a public pension system based on the pay-as-you-go financing model, that is, the working population is used to support the retired population, so it is extremely sensitive to demographic changes. According to the French Statistical Office, in 2020, the population aged 65 and over will account for 20.5% of the total population in France, which means that for every 2.1 French employed people, they will have to support one retiree. Meanwhile, the French government's pension deficit has climbed to €18 billion in 2020, or about 0.8 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).
Zhao Yongsheng also said that France's desire to develop renewable energy and nuclear energy is its consistent thinking. Macron has once again proposed this policy and strengthened the position of nuclear energy, mainly affected by the situation in Ukraine, hoping to strengthen France's energy security.
According to statistics France, although nuclear energy is currently an important source of energy in France, the country still imports 17% and 7% of its natural gas and oil from Russia. The latest data from the Bank of France shows that last year, the country's energy prices rose by 21%, driving the country's prices up 3.6%, affected by rising international energy prices.
At a press conference held recently, Macron portrayed himself as a "crisis president" who has been in danger of repeated changes, and hinted that he is the safest choice for voters in times of crisis. "In the face of unforeseen things, you already know something about my behavior." He said.
In fact, after the sudden escalation of the situation in Ukraine, Macron's polls have indeed continued to rise. Zhao Yongsheng believes that Macron's achievements in the past five years and his performance in the situation in Ukraine are two of the main reasons why he is currently supported by French voters.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the unemployment rate fell to 7.4 percent, the lowest level in 15 years, according to the French National Statistical Office. 2021 was the strongest year for the French economy since 1969. At the same time, France's chip industry policy has gradually landed, and Intel recently announced the establishment of a European research and development center in France. Macron has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at least 10 times since last November.
Zhao Yongsheng believes that Macron's re-election, from the industrial level, will be good for nuclear energy, new energy represented by wind energy and photovoltaics, and the development of digital industries. From the macroeconomic level, if the retirement age is postponed, tax cuts and other policies are implemented, it will release vitality for the French economy. From a voter perspective, raising pensions is good for left-wing voters, and tax cuts are good for right-wing voters.
However, Zhao Yongsheng said that Macron's campaign platform has a loophole: if investment and tax cuts go hand in hand, where will the money invested by the French government come from?
Borrowing has been a common move by the French government, but it is drawing criticism from French state auditors. Macron's massive spending, they say, will lead to a sharp increase in public-sector debt. At present, France's fiscal deficit as a share of GDP has soared to 5%. According to the red line drawn by the EU, this proportion should not exceed 3%.
Adelaide Zulfikarpasic, head of the Paris-based polling agency BVA Opinion, said macron's reforms always encountered great resistance when recalling the yellow vest movement in previous years. Although Macron's approval rating is rising, it is related to the epidemic and the situation in Ukraine. And if these conditions subside, Macron will risk losing his appeal to voters.
Macron and Le Pen:
Tit-for-tat governing philosophy
According to CCTV news, Le Pen said in an interview with the four news channels of French television on the 22nd: "Macron's victory is not inevitable. He called millions of voters 'far right', which was an offense. And I've never had the slightest hostility toward voters who support Macron. ”
According to Le Pen, Macron focused only on the interests of the elite and ignored the impact of rising prices on low-income households.
Le Pen Image source: Visual China
According to the news, Le Pen "inherited his father's business" in 2011 and became the leader of the "National Front". Le Pen the Elder was anti-Semitic, anti-multicultural, anti-feminist, and extremely controversial. After Le Pen took over, both in policy and rhetoric, he tried to downplay the "far right" overtones of his party, for example, le Pen forbade anyone in the party to make "anti-Semitic" remarks. In doing so, she wants to move the political party closer from the "periphery" to the "mainstream", so that she and her party can move from offstage to stage.
More importantly, Le Pen did not spend effort to go to a big city like Paris to solicit votes, but rushed to the relatively backward rural areas and small towns to talk to everyone about the cost of living, energy prices, pensions and other issues, creating an "anti-elite" grassroots image for himself, so he won the favor of many middle-aged and elderly people and low-income groups. This is reminiscent of Trump in 2016.
Le Pen's economic claims are strongly supported by blue-collar groups. These include early retirement by 60 for workers before the age of 20, the abolition of personal income tax for groups under the age of 30, and a reduction in energy value-added tax from 20 per cent at this stage to 5.5 per cent.
△ Macron and Le Pen conduct a TV debate Image source: CCTV News
On the EU issue, Le Pen proposed "France's Brexit" in 2012 and then revised it to exit the eurozone in 2017. Although Le Pen deliberately downplayed the idea in his recent campaign, Macron, who is known for his pro-European pro-European views, called the election a "referendum on Europe" and accused Le Pen of his real idea of pushing ahead with "Brexit from France."
Not only that, Le Pen also announced in recent days that he would withdraw from the NATO command structure after his election.
Su Hao, director of the Center for Strategic and Peace Studies at the China Foreign Affairs University, analyzed in an interview with China News Network that promoting european internal integration has always been France's strategic pursuit, and macron will certainly adhere to this strategic tradition if elected.
As for Le Pen's claim, Su Hao believes that it has the purpose of election propaganda. He pointed out that NATO and the EU are both long-standing traditions and platforms, and as a truly responsible politician, they will not give up on both. Le Pen's election would not have changed France's diplomatic and security traditions with such a "revolutionary" act.
Le Pen went to Etaple in northern France on the 22nd to solicit votes, and she used the slogan of "choose France or Macron" to criticize Macron's governance for increasing the burden of national life, and also accused Macron's pension reform of injustice.
Le Pen said France had experienced 5 years of chaos and it was time to regain social stability. "If you elect the same person and the same way of governance, you won't be able to achieve that goal."
Macron warned that if le Pen's far-right camp came to power, it would only create more hatred and divide society. He also criticized Le Pen's proposal for a "Europe of nations" that meant the EU would come to an end.
On April 21, French President Emmanuel Macron campaigned in the northern suburb of Paris in the province of Seine-Saint-Denis. Image source: CCTV News
The Russian-Ukrainian issue is also the focus of the duo's argument.
Since February, Macron has repeatedly mediated the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has also led to a sharp rise in his approval rating, once exceeding 30%.
Su Hao pointed out that out of the strategic pursuit of European autonomy and the political choice of keeping a distance from the United States, Macron has tried to play a role in mediating the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Although temporarily subject to the so-called political correctness of the West, when the time comes, he will contact Russia again.
On the other hand, The New York Times noted that Le Pen regarded Russian President Vladimir Putin as an ally, saying that her victory could make it more difficult for Biden to isolate Russia and aid Ukraine.
The French presidential election has also attracted the attention of many European countries. The leaders of Germany, Spain and Portugal jointly published an article in a number of European newspapers on the 21st, calling on the French people to vote for Macron instead of choosing Le Pen, who represents the far-right camp. Le Pen emphasized nationalism and France first in the election, and at one point played the slogan of leaving the eurozone.
Experts: Sino-French relations will not be impacted
Macron will give priority to the Russian-Ukrainian issue
According to the Beijing News, in the context of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, will the French election have an impact on Sino-French and China-EU relations? Can France, with its tradition of independent diplomacy, play its leading role in promoting the further development of obstructed China-EU relations? The reporter interviewed Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, for an in-depth interpretation of this.
Cui Hongjian said that Macron's first term in power has a very distinctive feature, that is, it has been seeking two balances. The first is to try our best to maintain a balance between left and right in internal affairs. Macron portrays himself as a "centrist" who is neither left nor right, so his domestic policies focus on a balance between left and right, such as trying to maintain a balance between efficiency and justice in economic and social reforms. The second is internal and external balance, that is, the balance between internal and external affairs. Macron believes that France's internal problems can be addressed or solved to some extent through external cooperation, such as resolving France's economic structural problems by improving the FINANCIAL capacity of the EU, and helping France's energy transition through climate change diplomacy.
In terms of foreign strategy, the Macron government has two major goals, one is to return to "Gaullistism" and help the French people re-establish their national and great power pride; the other is to emphasize the sovereign nature of Europe as a whole and enhance the recognition and sense of belonging to the EU. Proceeding from these two goals, Macron has been pursuing "major country diplomacy with French characteristics" during his tenure, and hopes to make a difference in diplomacy, including promoting climate change diplomacy, promoting the "Paris Agreement", acting with Trump as the "representative" of the European Union, publicly criticizing NATO's "brain death", advocating détente with Russia and strengthening cooperation with China. But in the second half of his first term, domestic reforms were hampered by Macron's diplomacy, and the rapid changes in the international situation also made him a little confused.
During Macron's first term of office, Sino-French relations as a whole maintained steady development and there were no major problems affecting the relations between the two countries. Macron has shown great interest in China, not only his own continuous visits to China, but also the interaction and cooperation between China and France in various fields and at all levels.
In 2018, Macron and his wife played the Terracotta Warriors Image source: Visual China
However, it should be noted that Macron's China policy is inevitably constrained by some external factors and has not escaped the big environmental impact of the EU and Western relations with China.
First of all, as the "bellwether" of the EU, France's China policy will inevitably be subject to the EU's relations with China. For example, the differences between China and the EU in the political and human rights fields cannot be resolved by France alone, and its China policy will inevitably be affected. From this perspective, the Macron administration's China policy has not truly reflected the "Charles de Gaulle tradition" of French diplomacy.
Second, Macron's five years in power coincided with a period of intense political turmoil in Western countries, and his main energy was to deal with these changes in internal relations. For example, on the issue of the United States, the Macron administration has to concentrate on dealing with the changes in the US policy toward Europe from Trump to the Biden administration, has to deal with the intricate contradictions and differences within NATO and the EU, and has to deal with the impact of Brexit on Britain, France, and Britain-Eu relations.
Therefore, on the whole, during Macron's first term, Sino-French relations developed smoothly, but due to various internal and external factors, the huge potential of Sino-French cooperation has not been better released.
Macron is re-elected, and in the short term it will still be difficult for him to get rid of the constraints he has faced in his first term, that is, to prioritize the resolution of domestic issues, and in view of the domestic criticism he has previously received such as "light domestic affairs, heavy diplomacy" and "ineffective" in mediating the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Macron may readjust his balance between domestic and diplomatic affairs. Macron's re-election, in the diplomatic field needs to deal with the russian-Ukrainian conflict as a priority issue, so from the perspective of priority, Macron will give priority to relations with Russia, relations with the United States and other allies.
Cui Hongjian said that I think the new government after the election will try to maintain the coherence of china policy and will rely more on the overall strength of the EU to deal with China. In addition, it is worth noting that Macron's handling of the Russian-Ukrainian issue may affect Sino-French relations to a certain extent. If The relations between Europe, Russia and France and Russia can be eased, the space for the development of Sino-French relations will be correspondingly relaxed. If France also accepts the US rhetoric, then once the Relations between Europe, Russia and France and Russia fall into long-term tensions, Sino-French relations may suffer "the disaster of the pond fish".
Edit | paragraphs of Du Bo
Proofreader | Sun Zhicheng
Daily economic news is synthesized from CCTV News, Interface News, Beijing News, First Finance, China News, Look at News, Public Information, etc
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