After World War II, the United States became the world hegemon, in these decades, the United States used its political, military, political and other aspects of the influence, grasped the right to speak in the international monetary system, so that the dollar sat on the position of the head of the world currency. In the process of globalization, the world economy is more active, but the drawbacks are gradually emerging, due to the existence of the petrodollar system, many countries are in a passive position, the degree of dependence on the dollar is extremely high, but because of the fear of the strength of the United States, the process of going to the dollar can only be like squeezing toothpaste, little by little, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on energy issues debate, so that many countries see the consequences of excessive dependence on the dollar, countries have accelerated the process of de-dollarization, turned their attention to the renminbi.
Rmb pricing power increased
Most of the wars in modern history are for oil, and if you become the dominant person in oil, you can grasp the initiative, and China is also trying to link oil to the renminbi in the process of internationalization of the renminbi.
In 2017, China's crude oil imports reached 420 million tons, surpassing the United States for the first time to become the world's largest crude oil importer, and on March 26, 2018, crude oil futures denominated in RMB were officially launched, from the beginning of research and discussion to the official listing, China has been preparing for a full 17 years.
Pricing oil in renminbi can enhance China's position and further integrate China into the global market, and the increased demand for the renminbi by foreign investors participating in the transaction will reduce some of the demand for the dollar and increase the renminbi's voice in the world financial system.
Since the listing of China's crude oil futures, the market volume has risen steadily, and the cumulative trading volume of mainland crude oil futures in 2021 is 42.6452 million lots, an increase of 2.55% year-on-year; the cumulative turnover is 18.50 trillion yuan, an increase of 54.63% year-on-year. According to the data obtained by the BWC Chinese network team, in the 14 months until April 15 this year, the cumulative trading volume of RMB crude oil futures reached 56.98 million lots, and 68 international brokerage companies have launched RMB crude oil trading services, while before the advent of Chinese crude oil futures contracts, international transactions in the Asian session were almost unattended, and the price fluctuations were minimal.
This also means that after four years of development, RMB crude oil is expanding its pricing power in the Asian and European markets, the market share of the oil yuan is increasing, and coupled with the opportunity of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the RMB will have more opportunities.
The United States through war to obtain hegemony, and China to avoid war to change the existing dollar oil system is not easy, but the oil yuan is not a new word after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Iran has long included the renminbi in its main foreign exchange currency, instead of the status of the dollar, Saudi Arabia has also taken the initiative to show goodwill to China, proposed to use the renminbi settlement, Venezuela, Indonesia, Angola and other oil-producing countries are also willing to disperse the dollar risk in the form of renminbi settlement. So far, 53 countries have begun to use different methods to carry out the process of removing the dollar.
In the future, more and more foreign investors will participate in the construction of the oil RMB system, and the ability of RMB pricing will become stronger and stronger, although it will not be able to shake the status of petrodollar in the short term, but China's spirit of Taoguang and obscurity and accumulation of thick and thin hair is unmatched by any country.
The dollar's position is shaken
In the midst of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the West clamored for "the most severe sanctions in history" against Russia, but so far, these sanctions are "paper tigers", even when Russia was kicked out of the SWIFT system in the early stages of the war, it was only a shoe scratching the itch to remove several banks that Russia had been included in the sanctions list during the Crimean crisis in 2014, followed by a farce, with all kinds of inexplicable sanctions, and the energy that really related to Russia's lifeblood was excluded.
Russia's anti-general army, the list of countries and regions unfriendly to Russia to buy Russian energy in rubles, suddenly destroyed the prestige of the United States and the European Union, but also weakened the trust of the world in the dollar and the euro, the United States ally Israel is no exception.
On April 20, according to Bloomberg, the Bank of Israel made its biggest adjustment in the allocation of its foreign exchange reserves in more than a decade, including the renminbi in its foreign exchange reserves for the first time, while adding new yen, Canadian dollars and Australian dollars.
Israel's foreign exchange reserves, originally a combination of the dollar, the euro and the pound, will be readjusted from 66.5% to 61%, and the euro will fall sharply from 30% to 20% – the lowest level of the euro in at least a decade in Israel's share of foreign exchange reserves, with the pound rising to 5%, the new yen accounting for 5%, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar each accounting for 3.5%, and the renminbi accounting for 2%.
Israel's move to throw dollars for yuan shocked the US media, the US financial website Zerohedge author Taylor Deden believes that China and Russia will work more closely in the future, will create a second global monetary system, the dollar is no longer a reserve currency, the United States and other Western countries foolishly think that they can effectively sanction Russia economically, but did not expect that Russia is ready to counteract, from Israel's decision can be seen that Israel is reducing the dollar and the euro to increase the exposure of the yuan, China and Russia may have meaningful changes to the global monetary landscape, And Israel is adapting to this development, and other countries may follow Israel's lead.
According to data disclosed by the International Monetary Fund, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to its lowest point since 1995, less than 59%, while the renminbi hit a new high of 2.79%, and when the new data comes out, there may be a big change.
Although even Israel, the "spokesman" of the United States in the Middle East, has created room for the development of the renminbi, it cannot be considered that the renminbi is already in a strong position, and they are still watching the development of the world situation, and once the situation eases, the wind direction will change again.
In a multipolar world, with countries developing rapidly and China developing at the fastest pace, the United States is no longer as overwhelmingly threatening as it was against the Soviet Union during World War II. China's growing economic strength and nuclear weapons are bound to be a thorn in the eyes of countries that want to unipolarize the world, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has brought More opportunities to China, but the challenges facing China in the future are also unprecedented. (leaf)