Dajiang Forum: Mainland scholars discuss the new situation in the Taiwan Strait

Huaxia Jingwei Network, April 24: According to Hong Kong's "China Commentary Agency", on the afternoon of April 22, the Dajiang Forum Think Tank sub-forum sponsored by the Central Committee of the Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League was successfully held at the Taiwan Guild Hall in Beijing. This year, with the theme of "Overall Strategy Leading the Future," the Second Think Tank Forum invited a number of well-known experts and scholars in the field of Taiwan studies, senior media, and outstanding representatives of Taiwan compatriots to conduct in-depth discussions on how to implement the party's overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era and promote the process of reunification of the motherland. Under the presidency of Wang Yingjin, director of the Research Center for Cross-Strait Relations at Chinese Min University, Wu Yongping, executive vice president of the Institute of Taiwan Studies of Tsinghua University; Zheng Jian, chair professor of the Institute of Taiwan Studies of Xiamen University and director of the All-China Association for Taiwan Studies; Li Zhenguang, vice president of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Beijing Union University; and Leng Bo, director of the Election Research Office of the Institute of Taiwan Studies of Social Sciences of China, all expressed their views on the current situation in the Taiwan Strait.

Wu Yongping: A new situation has emerged under peace in the Taiwan Strait

Wu Yongping, executive vice president of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Tsinghua University, said that under the current cross-strait peace, there is actually an undercurrent. Since the DPP came to power in 2016, the Taiwan authorities have continuously pursued the "Taiwan independence" policy and committed to "de-Sinicization." The mainland's bottom line has also been repeatedly challenged, and the sentiment of "anti-China hatred against China" on the island is high, posing challenges and threats to China's cause of peaceful reunification. However, the Outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War this year has prompted new changes on the island of Taiwan, and has also prompted Taiwan to further ponder: If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States really send troops to protect Taiwan? Is the Taiwan authorities' reliance on the United States just like Ukraine's fantasy? Therefore, the Russo-Ukrainian war also made Taiwan doubt whether the United States would send troops to defend Taiwan.

Wu Yongping believes that if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will certainly do its best to protect Taiwan, but not by sending troops, but by uniting the forces of global allies and mobilizing various resources to support Taiwan, such as providing various military weapons. According to his analysis, the starting point of the United States in doing so is based on its strategic consideration of suppressing and containing China. Therefore, Taiwan has acted as a pawn of the United States at different times, and in recent years, the DPP authorities have further strengthened their role as pawns, using freedom and democracy as the packaging, constantly giving themselves new connotations as pawns. What was born from this was the conflict and threat between the US global strategy of containing China and the goal of China's reunification of the nation.

In Wu Yongping's view, reunification is a task that a modern country must complete, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is also based on this background. The current threat in the Taiwan Strait is also a challenge to this new situation. "We still want to achieve peace, achieve integrated development through peaceful development, and ultimately realize the complete reunification of the country," Wu Yongping said, "but we will not give up force, and reunification is the most basic task that should be completed to build a modern country." ”

Zheng Jian: The Taiwan authorities are already at a crossroads

Zheng Jian, chair professor of the Taiwan Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that the world is in an era of great changes unprecedented in a century, and various countries, regions and political systems are at a crossroads, and different path choices at the crossroads mean moving towards different international systems. The Taiwan authorities are also facing a crossroads direction choice, which is mainly reflected in how to handle relations with the United States. Now that the United States has launched strategic competition with China and is doing its utmost to create a crest of confrontation, will Taiwan choose to be a cannon fodder pawn of the United States to completely decouple itself from the mainland, or will it continue to persist in the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and find a bright future for the People of Taiwan? This is a complex and important issue.

Zheng Jian analyzed that at such a critical moment, the mainland should not promise to give up the use of force. If it abandons the use of force, the mainland will face three difficult problems: What should Taiwan do if it wants independence? What if the Taiwan authorities never hold peace talks with the mainland? What should Taiwan do if it is held firm by foreign forces and foreign forces? In Zheng Jian's view, since taking office, the DPP has repeatedly challenged the mainland's bottom line on these three points, and in order to achieve the election goal, it has even blurred the line between "rejecting reunification" and "Taiwan independence." In addition, the United States has designed military strategies, methods of operations, and combat systems for the Taiwan authorities, and provided military training, and the involvement of foreign forces has also contributed to the Taiwan Strait issue.

"The people should always be the center of thinking," Zheng Jian stressed: Ruling for the people is the ruling philosophy of the Communist Party of China and also the basic concept of the mainland in handling cross-strait relations. Zheng Jian pointed out that Taiwan now needs strategists who understand Chinese history, geopolitics, and Western society to come up with good ideas, and in this way, how cross-strait relations will eventually end at the crossroads need to be carefully considered by Taiwan strategists.

Li Zhenguang: The people on both sides of the strait should hold rational public opinion to avoid confrontation

Li Zhenguang, vice president of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Beijing Union University, said that US intervention has always been a risk to the stability of the Taiwan Strait and will always exist, but peace in the Taiwan Strait is not only a political issue, it also needs to be safeguarded by all compatriots on both sides of the strait. Therefore, in view of the netizens currently spreading the "fight Against Taiwan" remarks on the Internet, Li Zhenguang believes that such a public opinion environment is irrational.

"Therefore, our people should not mess up in the cyberspace environment, avoid being led by the nose, and deliberately being guided by the outside world into an information environment of cross-strait war." Peace in the Taiwan Strait requires the joint efforts of all of us to maintain it. ”

In his view, the two sides of the strait have now entered a "cognitive war," so the phenomenon of leading the people's nose is very common. Like the CPC Central Committee, the people on both sides of the strait should also have a strategic determination on the Taiwan issue, clearly recognizing that once a war breaks out between the two sides of the strait, it will still be China's own compatriots who will suffer the most losses, and the real beneficiaries will only be the United States, which intends to turn Taiwan into a new Ukraine. In the taiwan strait peace, china itself should firmly grasp the initiative, rather than being led into a trap by people with hearts.

Cold Wave: The root cause of the chaos in the Taiwan Strait is the adjustment of US China policy

Leng Bo, director of the Election Research Office of the Taiwan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the root cause of the chaos in the Taiwan Strait in recent years lies in the changes in the US strategy toward China and its Policy toward Taiwan. Therefore, since the rapid changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait in 2019, the DPP has also made corresponding major adjustments in accordance with the POLICIES of the United States, and more and more actions have been made to impact the mainland's bottom line, and the Taiwan Strait has continued to be unstable. In particular, recently, there have been more and more exchanges between the United States and the Democratic Progressive Party, and the frequency of visits by US parliamentarians and politicians to Taiwan has become faster and faster, and the level of visits has also become higher and higher.

Leng Bo pointed out that the confrontation between public opinion on both sides of the strait is also a new change in the situation between the two sides of the strait. The island's support for the mainland has weakened unprecedentedly, and the efficiency of some models of the mainland's work toward Taiwan has also been weakened to a relatively large extent. Therefore, the complexity and arduousness of solving problems on the mainland side have further increased. This is also a test for the mainland, which means that the content and focus of the mainland's future work on Taiwan will also undergo some corresponding changes. Before 2016, the focus of the mainland's work on Taiwan was mostly in cross-strait exchanges, cross-strait development, cross-strait consultations, and cross-strait dialogue, but at present, these may not become the focus of taiwan work in a short period of time.

Cold Wave emphasizes that at this stage, bottom-line thinking is particularly important. Previously, all parties wanted to maintain a basic balance in the Taiwan Strait, but at present, the goals of all parties have undergone a change, so the balance in the Taiwan Strait has also been broken. If Taiwan becomes an "agent" of the United States, and if Taiwan allows US military planes to take off and land, will the two sides of the strait be ready to go to war? All these concerns show that the mainland should put more emphasis on bottom-line thinking in its work on Taiwan and make the worst possible plans for a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, especially in the military field, it must have a plan for making all preparations.

Discussion: Who are the spoilers of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait?

Wu Yongping gave the answer from the perspective of the timeline. He believes that from 2008 to 2016, the situation in the Taiwan Strait was generally stable. The crisis in the Taiwan Strait began in 2016, when the Democratic Progressive Party was in power. Since 2018, the DPP has changed the consensus that has been formed between the two sides of the strait for many years out of its own political needs. Therefore, when discussing the saboteurs of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, it is necessary to clarify the cause and effect, and the DPP is the cause. At the same time, it should also be noted that the United States has strengthened the DPP as a pawn, built it into a Taiwan card to contain China's development, and has become Taiwan's "protective umbrella." We cannot ignore the role of the United States in secretly fueling this.

Zheng Jian analyzed the answer to the question from the perspective of the beneficiary. In his view, to undermine stability is to undermine the status quo, and the status quo is the "1992 Consensus," the concept of peaceful development, and the consensus against "Taiwan independence" that have been reached between the two sides of the strait. The mainland side has always advocated the realization of the Chinese dream between the two sides of the strait, so there is no motive to undermine cross-strait peace. In contrast, in 2016, the United States adjusted its China strategy, colluded with Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party, and undermined the "1992 Consensus." If cross-strait peace is destroyed, the United States will be the real and only beneficiary.

Cold Wave gave the answer to the question from the perspective of finding someone to change the status quo. He pointed out that in 2016, the DPP wanted to change the consensus reached between the two sides of the strait in the past and break away from the framework of Chinese mainland, while the United States also stepped up its efforts to play the "Taiwan card" at this time, constantly provoking and repeatedly touching the bottom line. It can be seen from this that those who change the situation on both sides of the strait are the saboteurs of peace and stability.

Topic Discussion: How do you view the DPP's behavior of referring to deer as horses in the international public opinion environment?

Wu Yongping believes that China's completion of reunification as a sovereign state should have been justified, but at present, when the international community views the Taiwan issue, it is believed that China "deceives the small with the big," and this erroneous public opinion environment needs to be reversed. In his view, if reunification is achieved by non-peaceful means, it is necessary to do public opinion work in advance. In this regard, it is necessary to draw lessons from Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War in terms of international public opinion. The support of the international community can reduce the cost of reunification, so China should explain its own reasoning clearly and win the sympathy, understanding and support of all countries in the international community.

Li Zhenguang also added his own views on this basis, holding that the 21st century is still the century of power politics, so it is necessary not only to convince the international community of the legitimacy of cross-strait reunification, but also to convince the Taiwan people themselves, so that Taiwan compatriots dare not stand independent and do not want independence. At the same time, the people of the mainland should also pay attention to their emotions on the Internet, not blindly exaggerate war and confrontation, and always remember that the two sides of the strait are close to each other.

Wang Yingjin summed up the views of scholars, holding that in the field of international public opinion in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Russia has been shaped into an image of an aggressor because it was silenced. This also provides lessons for the Taiwan issue: prevent just internal affairs from being stigmatized as unjust issues. Therefore, China should attach importance to external propaganda methods and methods to avoid a one-sided situation in the international public opinion environment.