After entering 2022, pig prices and grain prices have been changing continuously, in general, pig prices have been going downhill, while grain prices have been going uphill. However, recently the trend of pig prices and grain prices has reversed, pig prices have ushered in a sharp rise, but grain prices have suffered a slight decline. On April 24, the pig and grain markets have ushered in the good news of "promoting the rise", is the price going up again?
Let's start with the hog market
Supply side: The latest news shows that at the end of March, the number of fertile sows in the mainland was 41.85 million, which is still higher than the normal sow ownership, but it has entered the green range of capacity adjustment, and the production capacity is still at a high level.
Consumption level: It is now in the off-season of traditional pork consumption in April, coupled with the epidemic affecting the centralized consumption of catering and canteens, it also affects the normal mobilization of pork, the overall consumption is sluggish, and the short-term lack of consumption stimulation.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the follow-up pig price is likely to encounter a downward trend on the basis of the current level. However, in recent days, the market has come with two good news that "promotes the rise".
Good news first, the fifth batch of pork storage all streamed auctions. Many pig friends may not understand, the storage is to stimulate the price of pigs, and now the short-term consumption of pork cannot be increased, and the price of pigs cannot rise, how can it be regarded as good news to promote the rise?
This should start from the mechanism of reserve meat collection and storage, reserve meat collection and storage requires that the storage enterprise be determined in accordance with the same trading time in accordance with the same conditions, the low price is preferred, and the time is given priority. Since the price is low, then the reason for the auction is obviously because the pork storage enterprises think that the listing price of reserve meat 21950 is difficult to buy pigs, and the best thing the slaughtering enterprises are doing is to lower the price of pigs, this time they did not do so, may be because of the serious epidemic in some areas, the difficulty of pig transportation, the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs, may also be because the number of pigs available for the market is low. But in any case, this batch of reserve meat collection and storage all stream auctions means that the subsequent pig price will usher in an increase.
Good news two, the amount of imported pork has declined, and the price advantage is no longer there
According to customs statistics, the total import of pork from January to March this year was 420,000 tons, a decrease of more than 60% compared with last year, and imported pork has been considered to be the main factor inhibiting the rise in domestic pig prices, because imported pork has a very obvious price advantage. However, with the continuous decline in domestic pig prices, the wholesale price of domestic white strip meat has fallen to single digits, and the advantage of imported pork in terms of price is no longer there. And there is news that the current mainland pork import tariffs have risen from 8% to 12%, it is expected that the second quarter of pork imports compared with the same period last year will also have a significant decline, which means that the impact of imported pork on domestic pig prices will be smaller and smaller, which will help domestic pig prices rise.
Let's talk about the food market
The grain market changes frequently, and the two types of changes that are relatively large are corn and wheat. Domestic wheat prices have just experienced a strong rise, wheat prices in some areas have even been pulled up to 1.7 yuan, but after all, new wheat is about to be listed, and flour demand is at a low level, the price of 1.7 yuan wheat has not been maintained for a long time, and now it has begun to decline.
However, you don't need to worry, the author believes that wheat prices do not exist on the basis of a big drop: 1, after the new wheat is listed, farmers will have a wave of prices; 2, after the new wheat is listed, flour companies, feed companies, etc. will join the "grab wheat" war; 3, the international wheat price is running high, and the probability will rise further. 4. The industry generally believes that the price of wheat in the new season can reach 1.4 yuan, or even 1.45 yuan, which will form a strong support for the price of old wheat.
In contrast, corn is not so crazy to stabilize a lot, although there has been a recent rise, but the increase is not large. However, the corn market has recently come with a good news of "promoting the rise", that is, the port has opened a high-profile harvest of corn. Affected by the epidemic, corn transportation is difficult, and there is a backlog in the production area, which also leads to a significantly lower progress of corn sales in the production area than in previous years, and the lack of supply and demand has become the main reason why corn prices cannot rise.
According to reports, Jinzhou port traders began to buy corn with a high-profile offer, although the offer of 1.425 yuan is not high, but at the moment when the northeast corn is difficult to transport, it can reduce the pressure of corn external adjustment, thereby providing support for the rise in corn prices and promoting the rise in corn prices. However, we need to pay attention to the fact that the industry predicts that when the epidemic stabilizes and transportation resumes, corn may usher in a wave of concentrated listing, which means that there is still a phased pressure risk in the corn market.
However, on the other hand, after the epidemic stabilizes, the backlog of starch in deep processing enterprises will be digested faster, and the operating rate of enterprises will also decline. Soon, with the rise in pig prices and egg prices, the amount of breeding will also rise, and the demand for corn will increase. Therefore, the forecast of the rise in corn prices remains unchanged.