The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy, real estate is supported by funds, futures hold red, spot market sentiment is boosted, prices are slightly increased, but under the influence of the epidemic, the acceptance of the terminal after the rise is limited, and logistics and transportation are limited, the overall trading atmosphere is not good, so that want to know the trend of steel in the later stage, look down...
First, the influencing factors of the steel market are as follows
1, real estate net profit declined, steel demand is weak
As of April 20, the real estate market has passed the peak period for the release of the performance of listed real estate companies in 2021. According to the relevant data of the 2021 annual reports of the 18 head listed housing enterprises, the 18 housing enterprises achieved a total operating income of 3592.403 billion yuan and a net profit of 252.352 billion yuan in 2021. The downturn in real estate development affects the amount of steel and bearish steel prices.
In February and March, the sales of bulldozers and road rollers fell sharply year-on-year
According to the statistics of 11 bulldozer manufacturing enterprises by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 757 bulldozers of various types were sold in March 2022, down 30.2% year-on-year; of which 418 were domestic, down 51.1% year-on-year; 339 were exported, an increase of 47.4% year-on-year. From January to March 2022, a total of 1769 bulldozers were sold, down 17.9% year-on-year; of which 785 were domestic, down 49.5% year-on-year;
The sharp decline in bulldozer sales reflects the decline in the operating rate of infrastructure projects, the weakening of demand for steel, and the negative price of steel.
3. China Steel Association: Maintain the balance between supply and demand
In the current market environment, the main task facing the steel industry is how to maintain a balance between supply and demand under limited market demand. Reducing crude steel production is to give full play to the role of the government and the market, adjust the intensity of steel production in a timely manner, and establish a new balance between market supply and demand.
4. Vale's iron ore production in the first quarter fell sharply by nearly 22.5% quarter-on-quarter
Vale produced 63.93 million tonnes of iron ore in the first quarter, with analysts expecting 67.8 million tonnes and 82.47 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2021. Iron ore sales in the first quarter were 53.6 million tons, down 9.6% year-on-year. Nickel production in the first quarter was 45,800 tons, down 5.6% year-on-year.
Second, the spot market
Construction steel: up
Period snail holding red up, spot market prices rose slightly, with the epidemic has eased, multi-sector full support for smooth logistics, stimulate steel demand, under the support of high costs, steel companies factory prices are high, but the downstream terminal procurement is still weak, the overall trading atmosphere is not good, it is expected that tomorrow's building materials market prices or the main stable tone.
Hot Rolled Coil: Up
Futures volume holding red shock, spot prices with the adjustment, in the strong expectations and weak reality of the game of difficult to move forward, the market mentality is pessimistic, the downstream terminal demand support is insufficient, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, more on-demand procurement, limited trading, it is expected that tomorrow's hot coil market price or will maintain stable operation.
Medium and thick plates: price increases
With the Development and Reform Commission and other departments out of the policy, the central bank to support real estate, stimulate economic development, transportation and logistics to accelerate, but affected by the epidemic, many places to stop work, weak terminal demand, the overall trading atmosphere is not good, merchants in the strong expectation of the psychological role, the price of goods, it is expected that tomorrow's price of the board or will be stable in the middle of the adjustment.
Strip: Up
In the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments of good news stimulated by individual rise, coupled with handan unsealing, steel companies have resumed work and production, the steel market has also resumed work, logistics resumed normal transportation, merchants actively quoted shipments, considering the increase in the supply of market resources, demand is still not significantly started, it is expected that tomorrow's strip price or will be the main stable operation.
Profile: Up
With the control of the epidemic, the operation of the spot market has accelerated, the black futures have risen, the market sentiment has been boosted, coupled with the high cost support of coke and iron ore, the confidence of merchants has recovered, the steel mill has resumed work and production, the price of finished materials has partially risen, but the downstream terminal operation pressure is large, more on-demand procurement, the market is mostly wait-and-see, and it is expected that the market price of tomorrow's profiles may remain stable.
Pipe: drop
According to market feedback, spot prices are slightly adjusted, the market trading atmosphere is not good, more on the sidelines, terminal on-demand procurement, there has not been a large replenishment phenomenon, the market willingness to purchase goods is not strong, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, logistics and warehouses are more stagnant, merchants are more cautious, it is expected that tomorrow's pipe market price or will maintain stable operation.
Third, the raw material market
Iron ore: Stability maintenance
The general index fell 4 US dollars, now 62% Platts index 149.85 US dollars, Handan gradually lifted the sealing control, iron ore terminal demand is acceptable, driving the market trading atmosphere is good, some traders have a reluctance to sell to rise psychology, steel mills to pick up goods to improve, the region of the port to improve significantly, resulting in inventory has declined, it is expected that tomorrow's iron ore prices or will remain stable.
Scrap: Steady rise
Affected by spot prices, scrap prices continue to rise, snails continue to rise, finished products with obvious decline, some steel mills production pressure is larger, resulting in the use of the momentum to reduce scrap prices, some out-of-stock steel mills in the crazy replenishment, but at this stage the impact of the epidemic has not subsided, scrap market resources are still tight, it is expected that tomorrow's scrap prices will rise slightly.
Coke: Up
Coke opened the sixth round of rise, steel mills resumed work and production steadily advanced, steel mills in some areas of the inventory is low, procurement is more active, coke enterprises are optimistic about coking prices, and coking coal prices continue to rise, there is some support for coke prices, it is expected that tomorrow's coke market or will be stable and stronger operation.
Pig iron: steady in the rise
Coke continuously pulled up, pig iron cost support is strong, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the demand for localities is sluggish, and pig iron, raw materials shipping difficulties, the market trading atmosphere is weak, with the spot slightly pulled up, the business mentality is strong, it is expected that tomorrow's pig iron prices or the main stable tone.
4. Comprehensive recommendations
Entering late April, although it is the traditional consumption season, but the steel market has entered the frame mold, there is pressure to rise, there is support for the fall, the dilemma of rising and falling continues to game, although there are macro policies that are good for economic recovery, stimulating steel demand, but the epidemic is always lingering, logistics and transportation are controlled, and the current price is at a high level, merchants take the cost of goods at a high risk, more cautious wait-and-see, the overall trading atmosphere is not good, it is expected that tomorrow's steel prices or will be the main stable rise.