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Wen | Wang Jiechao
Minerals at home and abroad are unevenly distributed, and China is a major importer. Global nickel reserves are concentrated in Indonesia, Australia and Brazil. Although China has a great demand for nickel resources, nickel ore reserves are limited, accounting for only 3.0% of global reserves. Therefore, China is the world's largest importer of nickel, because Indonesian nickel ore has been affected by the Indonesian government's export ban since 2014, and the main object of China's imports is the Philippines.
The fire wet process is improved, and the laterite nickel ore is supplied incrementally. After years of mining, the resources of high-grade nickel sulfide are shrinking day by day, and laterite nickel ore has become an increase in supply. In recent years, the difficulties of the pyrotechnic RKEF ferronickel vulcanization and wet HPAL processes have been gradually broken through, becoming the mainstream process of the new production project: RKEF nickel ferronic acid vulcanization costs 11,000 US dollars / ton, the total cost of producing nickel sulfate is 13500 US dollars / ton, and HPAL benefits from the high price deduction of cobalt, the production cost of MHP is 4200 US dollars / ton, and the total cost of producing nickel sulfate is 6700-7200 US dollars / ton; at the same time, the latest improved pyrocry process - The cost of oxygen-enriched side blowing technology to produce nickel sulfate is about 12,000 US dollars / ton, compared with the traditional fire project has obvious advantages, although there is no production project at present, but Zhongwei shares, Shengtun Mining has been designed and planned, the future can be expected.
Nickel supply: the supply is gradually released, and the growth rate in the next two years is considerable. In 2021, the nickel production of the world's major manufacturers we counted has increased significantly, reaching 1.75 million tons, compared with 1.539 million tons in 2020, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year. The main sources of capacity increase are Chinese manufacturers: Tsingshan Group, Youshan Nickel and Liqin Project. In 2021, foreign nickel manufacturers are trapped by the epidemic and the unexpected situation, and the overall production volume is slightly declining: Norilsk Nickel, Glencore and Vale are all affecting production due to accidents, overhauls and shutdowns. With the commissioning of many projects of Grammy, Huayou Cobalt, Ningbo Liqin and Qingshan Group in 2022, the expansion of Chinese manufacturers will drive a further increase in the world's overall nickel ore production, while the resumption of production by foreign manufacturers will also bring a certain increase, we expect that global nickel production will reach 3.145 million tons in 2022, a year-on-year growth rate of 18.4%; in 2023, global nickel production will reach 3.6 million tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 14.5%.
Nickel demand: Demand remains booming, supply and demand are gradually balanced. The outbreak of stainless steel and ternary battery markets in 2021 has raised nickel prices, and we expect these two major markets to remain high in the next two years: 1.09 million tons in 2022 and 1.628 million tons in 2023, while with the continuation of high nickelization, the demand for nickel will be greatly improved: in 2022, the demand for nickel is expected to be 511,800 tons, and in 2023 it is expected to be 764,570 tons, reaching 61.87% and 49.39% year-on-year, respectively. At the same time, with the increase in stainless steel production, the overall demand increased to 3.1369 million tons in 2022 and 3.53727 million tons in 2023, compared with 12.29% and 12.76% year-on-year, respectively.
At the same time, with the continuous expansion of domestic manufacturers and the recovery of production capacity of foreign manufacturers, it is expected that the balance of supply and demand will turn negative in 2022 and 2023, with a surplus of 0.81 million tons in 2022, maintaining a tight balance, and the surplus in 2023 is expected to expand to 62,730 tons (regardless of the impact of inventory). At the same time, it should not be ignored that the supply mismatch between nickel products for the ternary market and the stainless steel market will be alleviated. Therefore, we predict that nickel prices may remain high in 2022, and there is a high probability of price inflection points in 2023.
1) Energy prices have soared, resulting in increased production costs; 2) project construction has been affected by public health events, resulting in project construction falling short of expectations; 3) production rates have fallen short of expectations.
About the authors of the report
In recent years, with the continuous expansion of the middle-income group, the general improvement of living standards, the continuous transformation of consumption concepts, and the growing demand for tourism. At the same time, the state has introduced a series of policies and measures to support the rapid development of the tourism industry. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the total revenue of domestic tourism has increased from 1.57 trillion yuan in 2010 to 6.63 trillion yuan in 2019, with an average annual compound growth rate of 17%, far exceeding the GDP growth rate in the same period. It is expected that in the future, tourism demand will continue to maintain rapid growth. According to market agencies, the number of domestic tourists will exceed 8.3 billion in 2025, and the tourism revenue will be close to 10 trillion yuan. In order to meet the people's needs for a better life, we must further accelerate the construction of tourism infrastructure and promote the realization of high-quality consumption.
Wang Jiechao: Chief analyst, senior engineer, first-class constructor, consultant (investment) metallurgical and construction industry work for nearly 8 years, financial industry work for 5 years, began to engage in sell-side research work in 2017, chief editor GB/T 18916.31, has a number of patented technologies such as "a method of using laterite nickel ore to produce nickel-containing molten iron", and participated in the implementation of overseas "Belt and Road" projects, has rich industry experience, good at metal and construction industry chain research.
Securities research report name: "HPAL+ oxygen-enriched side blow casting high industry barriers, first-mover advantage established, it is recommended to pay attention to Huayou Shengtun"
External release time: April 18, 2022
Report publisher: CITIC Construction Investment Securities Co., Ltd
This report analyst:
Wang Jiechao SAC license number: S1440521110005
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