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summary
Tangshan and Handan have further strengthened control, the downstream demand has been partially restored, and steel prices have risen steadily for many consecutive days, and the trend can be described as strong. However, the overall international situation is unclear, raw material prices are too high, which is also an indisputable risk point, this week's demand for several days in a row has not been reflected, making the originally weak futures market worse, it is expected that tomorrow's steel prices will be weak to run
Factors affecting steel prices
1. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau have issued 23 measures to do a good job in local real estate, coal, automobile and other bulk consumer finance
The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau have issued 23 measures to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development financial services, which mentioned that due to the city's policies to implement differentiated housing credit policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the local real estate market; do a good job in financial services for coal and other energy supply, optimize and support special refinancing for the clean and efficient use of coal; increase financial support for the smooth circulation of logistics and shipping; encourage financial institutions to enrich bulk consumer financial products such as automobiles to meet reasonable consumer capital needs.
Analyst Wen Haichao's point of view: the central bank + foreign exchange bureau from the financial end to protect the related industrial economy, supply side, real estate development investment growth continued to slow down year-on-year. The real estate side is still moving lower and has not yet reached the bottom. Although the growth rate is slowing down, the data exceeded expectations, indicating that the infrastructure end is stronger. Coupled with the policy tilt of the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the economic demand of related industries is released faster, and in general, the price support of the charging material of superimposed steel is stronger, and the price of steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level.
2. National Development and Reform Commission: We will make every effort to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities
The National Development and Reform Commission said on April 19 that the next step will be to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of bulk commodities. Closely track the commodity market and price trends, continue to strengthen monitoring and analysis, so as to timely discover problems, timely study and judge the situation, and deal with them as soon as possible. Strengthen the guidance of market expectations, timely release market information, increase market supervision, severely crack down on hoarding, price gouging, spreading false information and other violations of laws and regulations, and resolutely curb excessive speculation and speculation.
Analyst Wen Haichao's point of view: since the beginning of this year, the state has repeatedly proposed the control of raw material prices, from the price point of view, coke and coking coal compared with the same period of previous years the price is nearly double, coupled with the Conflict between Russia, Ukraine and Bolivia and Belarus, the international raw material prices in the next few days or further higher, at this time, the state for raw material prices deep control, will also be supply and demand to get a partial balance, is conducive to the later steel prices, tomorrow to see the price to maintain today's weak operation.
3. The total arrival of 47 port iron ore in China was 22.899 million tons, an increase of 3.281 million tons from the previous month
From April 11 to April 17, the total arrival of iron ore in China's 47 ports was 22.899 million tons, an increase of 3.281 million tons month-on-month; the total arrival volume of China's 45 ports was 22.435 million tons, an increase of 3.577 million tons; and the total arrival of the six northern ports was 11.833 million tons, an increase of 3.161 million tons.
Analyst Wen Haichao's view: the supply side of the short-term Australian port maintenance decreased, the impact of rain in Brazil weakened, and overseas shipments will continue to increase in the future. On the demand side, molten iron production continued to rebound last week, but there is limited room for short-term molten iron production to continue to recover under the influence of the epidemic. At present, iron ore still has support at the demand level, but in the case of weak terminal real demand and low profits of steel mills, it is difficult for iron ore to further rise, and the overall trend is dominated by shocks.
Market
Steel prices rose overall today
China Steel Network APP data shows:
Among the 24 markets of rebar, 16 rose 10-40, no decline, the average price of 20mmHRB400E was 5081 yuan / ton, up 13 yuan / ton from the previous trading day;
Among the 24 hot coil markets, 14 rose by 10-20, no decline, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coil was 5282 yuan / ton, an increase of 9 yuan / ton from the previous trading day;
Among the 22 markets of medium and thick plate, 9 rose by 10-50, and 1 fell by 10, and the average price of ordinary plate was 5335 yuan / ton, an increase of 9 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.
According to the data of China Steel Network, a total of 18 steel mills adjusted prices today, of which:
7 companies were raised, accounting for 38.9%, and the price adjustment range was 10-30 yuan / ton, and the highest increase was Shanxi Jianbang Building Materials;
Downgraded none;
It was flat 11, accounting for 61.1%.
According to the data of China Steel Network APP:
The price chart of China Steel Mesh APP is as follows:
Futures steel fell overall today
Today's thread main futures fell 22, closing at 5011, down 0.44%; hot coil main fell 2, closing at 5164, down 0.04%; coke main down 127.5, closing at 3898.5, down 3.17%; coking coal main down 138.5, closing at 3015, down 4.39%; iron ore main down 30, closing at 887, down 3.27%.
Scrap price updates
Price adjustment: Qinhuangdao Hongxing scrap notice: all material types down 20 yuan / ton, look forward to the world.
Price adjustment: Tangshan Yangang steel scrap up 30-100: high quality 3890 heavy A3840 heavy B3740 in A3800 in B3700 high quality cast iron 3720 large pieces of shear 3820 furnace one 3760 furnace two 3740 furnace three 3640 furnace four 2260 shear one 3630 shear two 3430 shear three 2030 before tax.
Price adjustment: Canggang Group scrap notice: Mitsubishi high carbon parts down 30 yuan.
Price adjustment: Qinhuangdao Hongxing scrap notice: all material types down 20 yuan / ton, look forward to the world.
Price adjustment: Tangshan Yangang steel scrap up 30-100: high quality 3890 heavy A3840 heavy B3740 in A3800 in B3700 high quality cast iron 3720 large pieces of shear 3820 furnace one 3760 furnace two 3740 furnace three 3640 furnace four 2260 shear one 3630 shear two 3430 shear three 2030 before tax.
Price adjustment: Canggang Group scrap notice: Mitsubishi high carbon parts down 30 yuan.
Supply: A new round of the epidemic has fallen two important steel bases, the factory warehouse is accumulating, the social library is decreasing, the transportation is still not smooth in some areas, the blast furnace output has rebounded due to the impact of Tangshan, but the epidemic in East China is serious, the electric furnace start is slightly affected by the reduction of goods, the profit of the blast furnace electric furnace is at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the recovery this week is limited. In this period of five major material inventory to the warehouse, the reality of low output and low inventory in the early stage has gradually evolved into the pressure of high inventory on the later period, in the short term, after the epidemic is controlled, it will gradually strengthen the stimulation of the economy, real estate infrastructure is still the main industry that drives the economy in the short term, the price of superimposed raw materials continues to rise, and the steel price support is strong.
Demand: The central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange are moving forward and are expanding financial services. In addition, since the beginning of the year, the real estate deregulation policy has led to signs of a recovery in the property market. At present, the actual impact of the epidemic on steel demand is still relatively obvious. The domestic epidemic has declined twice in the past week, and the new asymptomatic infections have declined in the past 2 days, if it can continue to stabilize at this level or continue to decline, it can be judged that the inflection point of the epidemic has arrived.
Steel price forecast:
Overall, the epidemic has once again affected the supply and demand of steel. The policy of stable growth continues to increase, the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange today from the financial level to further exert efforts, steel demand is expected to be released in the near future, but due to the impact of the epidemic and external situation, short-term steel demand is still uncertain. Infrastructure continues to grow steadily, infrastructure investment will drive the expansion of related steel demand; the decline in the main indicators of the real estate market has expanded, the downward trend of real estate investment has not reached the inflection point, and the demand for steel is still negative; the automotive industry is currently mainly constrained by the epidemic, the sales volume in March decreased significantly, but the overseas order increased, forming a pattern of weak supply and strong demand for the manufacturing industry, if the epidemic improves, the manufacturing industry will expand the space, and the demand for steel is expected to strengthen the release, but the short-term demand will drag down the operation of steel prices.
Key factors: the intensity of the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange for the implementation of policies.
On the whole, tomorrow's steel prices will be weak.