Recently, CITIC Securities suddenly lowered the target price of Moutai in Guizhou, triggering many investors to discuss.
According to the research report, CITIC Securities lowered the target price of Guizhou Moutai from 3,000 yuan to 2,246 yuan, a decrease of 25%.
CITIC Securities mentioned in the research report that "since mid-March, the feitian Moutai batch price has fallen back in the off-season, mainly due to the russian-Ukrainian conflict to increase the probability of global economic crisis, and the intensification of the epidemic in domestic first-tier cities has led to a decline in short-term demand." ”
In February 2021, CITIC Securities gave a target price of 3,000 yuan in Guizhou Moutai, and Wind data showed that CITIC Securities maintained this target price until August 1, 2021.
It is worth noting that after CITIC Securities gave a target price of 3,000 yuan, within 15 trading days, the stock price of Guizhou Moutai fell from 2608 yuan all the way to 1800 yuan. In August 2021, the stock price fell by nearly 1500 yuan.
Shouted out 3,000 points at a high level, and then the stock price went all the way down, so that liquor investors were divided about CITIC's research report.
THE TARGET PRICE OF CITIC SEEMS TO HAVE MAGIC, AFTER SETTING A TARGET PRICE OF 3,000 YUAN, IT HAS BECOME THE TOP SIGNAL OF THE LIQUOR SECTOR, AND GUIZHOU MOUTAI RARELY BREAKS THROUGH THE 2,000 MARK IN A YEAR. As of the close of trading on April 14, Guizhou Moutai has fallen by more than 11% since the beginning of the year.
Of course, this is also due to many factors that cause consumption to fall short of expectations, and the market situation is not clear.
The reduction in the target price of CITIC this time was a quarter of the previous target price, and China Merchants Securities, which was also the top broker, pushed the target price of Moutai to 2800 yuan.
If the two families are in opposition, who will be punched in the face?
As of now, the stock price of Moutai in Guizhou is 1800 yuan, and in the period of decadence of consumption, liquor has also been beaten for a whole quarter.
After the National Standing Committee decided to cut the RRR in due course, the market is expected that the central bank will announce the implementation in the near future, bringing benefits to the market, if the epidemic is controlled, it is expected to make the long-sluggish consumer sector rebound.
However, although CITIC Securities lowered its target price, CITIC Securities still gave a "buy" rating.
CITIC Securities said that with the gradual increase in Moutai 1935 and the launch of the "i Moutai" App, the company's channel and product structure are more balanced, the medium- and long-term volume price strategy is more than comfortable, the performance is certain and there are opportunities to exceed expectations.
Compared with CITIC Securities, China Merchants Securities highly recommends Guizhou Moutai to investors, with a target price of up to 2800 yuan.
According to Wind data, on January 19, 2022, China Merchants Securities gave a target price of 2400 yuan / share in Guizhou Moutai and later raised it to 2800 yuan / share on February 23, 2022, which has been maintained until now.
China Merchants Securities pointed out in a recent research report that due to the continuous correction of Moutai stock price due to the concentrated release of multiple negative factors since the beginning of the year, PEG has been adjusted back from 4-5X to about 2X in the previous two years, but after the management change, the company has entered a new cycle of development, and its competitive advantage has continued to strengthen.
In the follow-up, if the reform of marketing actions goes smoothly, there is a possibility of further upward adjustment of the growth center in the next two years, and it is optimistic that the medium- and long-term Feitian price system will return to marketization and the growth of series of wines will accelerate.
The two head brokers are mostly the same logic, and they are optimistic that Moutai's series of wines have entered a period of rapid development.
With the continuous expansion of brand advantages, the valuation expansion rate of Moutai may be faster than other varieties, and the "i Moutai" e-commerce platform operated by Moutai can expand market share.
At present, "i Maotai" has been online after the lottery did not draw many bottles, but the advertisement is quite loud.
Dealers said that because after the "i Moutai" was launched, Moutai is now the "price freezing point", the price of several wines has dropped significantly, and the treasure Moutai has fallen by nearly 1,000 yuan. Among them, 500ml of "Tiger Mao" fell for many consecutive days, from 3900 to 3720 yuan per bottle, becoming the "lowest value" in the previous zodiac wines.
The launch of Moutai e-commerce is more like playing with dealers, Moutai side shouted that the price reduction can be the original price to grab Moutai to attract people to grab, the result is hundreds of thousands of people to grab a few bottles.
Dealers shout that the e-commerce platform is too big to suppress our profits, and Moutai is already very cheap at present, but in fact, the impact is not so deep.
It is right to increase its own sales share through self-selling e-commerce platforms, but it is necessary to take out more bottles of Moutai to draw lots, the current lottery rate is not more than 1%, and consumers are more advertising for not grabbing Moutai.
When will the liquor sector rebound?
In fact, recently Huatai Securities and Orient Securities have slightly raised the target price of Guizhou Moutai, and the current target price given is 2354.88 yuan / share, 2247.75 yuan / share, giving a "buy" rating;
Comprehensive Wind data shows that for Guizhou Moutai, the target price given by most institutions is around 2300 yuan, of which the maximum value is 2800 yuan and the minimum value is 1885.60 yuan.
Most institutions believe that Moutai still has more than 20% upside, mainly due to the improvement of the macro consumption environment and stable high-speed growth.
From the PE point of view, the pe of Moutai in Guizhou is currently 43 times, which is nearly half compared with the 73 times PE of the high level.
Is the reason for the decline in stock prices and PE a change in fundamentals?
At the beginning of 2021, the valuation of the liquor industry is generally 50-60 times, and the current valuation is already around 35 times.
According to the current annual reports of many liquor companies, in fact, everyone's performance is very good, and there are many that have grown beyond expectations, and everyone thinks that performance can boost the stock price, but the stock price has fallen continuously.
Many institutions believe that there is no problem with the fundamentals of liquor, and during the period when the market is killing valuations, it is a good long-term layout opportunity for first- and second-tier leading enterprises.
It is worth noting that in this round of liquor decline, the first echelon has been produced.
Previously, many liquor companies were not the main liquor products, in this decline, the more resistant to the fall is the first-line liquor, second- and third-tier liquor and other varieties of liquor companies, in this round of consumption sector decline, twenty times the big bull stocks willing to the liquor industry also fell miserably.
However, when the liquor sector rebounded in the past week, the rebound of a number of liquor companies is not small, and more attention can be paid to.
The sector began to show signs of rebound, and the second- and third-tier liquor stocks with little rebound are likely to have been abandoned by institutions in this round of decline.
epilogue
In general, the reason why many institutions are optimistic is that there are more than expected opportunities for performance certainty, as macro factors turn better, RRR cuts and interest rate cuts stimulate the consumer side, sales in the second quarter are expected to pick up, and liquor, which has fallen more, especially leading enterprises, is expected to usher in a strong rebound.
At the end of March, Duan Yongping also said that he had recently bought some Guizhou Moutai again, and the reason for buying Moutai "has nothing to do with any news that everyone sees, and even has nothing to do with the stock price, but it just has a little excess cash." I always feel that from the perspective of looking at 10 years, holding Moutai is a little better than holding cash in the bank. ”
Before the RRR cut, Guizhou Moutai 43 times the PE, expensive?
All are re-optimistic about Moutai and the target price dispute between CITIC and China Merchants, two head brokers, who will be punched in the face?