Reporter | Anjing
After the war between Russia and Ukraine, European countries have adjusted their tactics. Denmark, Poland, Germany and other NATO countries have taken the initiative to demand higher military spending; in the neutral countries of Finland and Sweden, the call for joining NATO has reached an all-time high.
In early March, the governments of Finland and Sweden were cautious about joining NATO. Finland has a border of 1,340 km with Russia. But now, the Finnish parliament will discuss whether to join NATO, and Sweden's ruling party, which has been opposed to nato, has begun to re-evaluate Sweden's security policy.
In his latest speech, Prime Minister Malin said Finland would make a decision in a few weeks on whether to apply for NATO membership. Russia renewed its warning about Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO.
Former President Dmitry Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, warned that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia would have to deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in its European part, Reuters reported on April 14.
Medvedev said that once Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia will strengthen its army, navy and air force in the Baltic Sea, and the Baltic Sea will no longer be a "nuclear-weapon-free" region.
He called on Finland and Sweden to remain rational, saying that no sane person would want to see "high prices, high taxes, border tensions, and Iskander missiles, hypersonic missiles and nuclear-armed ships deployed an arm's throw away from their homes."
Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia would take the necessary measures to "restore balance" to the situation.
Just a day before Medvedev's warning, Finnish Prime Minister Marin and Swedish Prime Minister Anderson said at a press conference in Sweden that she could not give a specific time on when Finland would decide whether to join NATO, but that the decision would be made "in a few weeks".
On Wednesday, the Finnish government released a new report on changes in the country's security environment, which mentioned the possible impact of Finland's membership in NATO. According to Marin, parliament will debate the report and Finland's security policy, and security experts will also submit their views to parliament in the coming weeks.
In his speech earlier this month, Marin noted that if Finland wants to join NATO, it will need to submit an application by this summer. On June 29, NATO will hold a summit in Madrid, Spain.
Finland has the longest border with Russia among EU member states. Historically, Finland was part of Sweden. In the Finnish War of 1808, Sweden lost to Russia, and Finland was subsequently occupied by Russia. It was not until after the October Revolution in Russia in 1917 that Finland declared its independence.
During World War II, Finland fought the Soviet Union twice. Finland eventually ceded some of its territory to the Soviet Union, but was able to maintain national sovereignty, which struggled to win the war after paying a heavy price.
After World War II, in order to prevent Western countries from launching an offensive through Finland, the Soviet Union and Finland signed the Soviet-Finnish Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which required both sides to pledge not to participate in any alliance aimed at opposing the other side. The treaty ensured that Finland would not be annexed by the Soviet Union and that Finland would not join NATO. Finland thus became a neutral country in the Cold War.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Finland joined the European Union and also strengthened its cooperation with NATO, becoming a nato enhancement partner. But Finland's tradition of not joining NATO continues. A 2017 poll by the Finnish Broadcasting Corporation showed that only 21% of respondents supported Finland's accession to NATO.
After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War this year, the attitude of the Finnish people towards NATO has taken a big turn. A poll by the Finnish Broadcasting Corporation at the end of February showed that the number of respondents supporting Finland's nato membership rose to 53 percent, marking the first time that support for NATO has exceeded 50 percent.
By March, a Finnish Broadcasting Corporation poll showed that the share of respondents who supported Finland's nato membership had risen further to 62 percent, with only 16 percent opposing it.
The Finnish government's security environment assessment released on Wednesday noted that the security situation in Finland and Europe is currently in the most unpredictable and serious state since the Cold War as a result of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Such changes in the security situation have long-term implications.
Finland's periphery remains calm and the country faces no imminent military threat, the report said. But Finland must prepare for possible future military and political threats. In the event of a military conflict in the Baltic Sea, Finland would not be able to stand alone.
In preparation, the Finnish government proposed a series of responses, including further strengthening cooperation with Sweden and other Nordic countries, the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union and NATO.
The government report does not directly propose Finland's accession to NATO, but rather provides an assessment of the possible impact of Finland's accession to NATO. One of the most important and beneficial effects on Finland is that NATO's collective defense provisions will apply to Finland, and the deterrent power of Finnish defense will be greatly enhanced.
The report also warns that Finland's accession to NATO will trigger a "rebalancing" in Russia. Once Finland submits its application to join NATO, it will be prepared to face a range of unpredictable risks, including a mixture of interventions involving various fields, such as border tensions between Finland and Russia and cyberattacks.
The report stresses the importance of close cooperation between Finland and Sweden in the intermediate stage of filing applications and awaiting results. If Sweden and Finland can apply for NATO membership at the same time, the two countries will be better prepared to deal with Russia's counterattack.
As of now, Sweden has not made it clear whether it will immediately enter NATO.
During talks with The Finnish prime minister on Wednesday, Swedish Prime Minister Anderson said Sweden would not rush to make a decision, but the government had begun to reassess its international security policy.
Sweden has not fought in any war, including the Cold War, from 1814 to the present. The country's current ruling party, the center-left Social Democratic Party, has been opposed to Sweden's membership in NATO. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Anderson warned that Sweden's application to join NATO now would trigger more serious turmoil in Europe.
Anderson's remarks on Wednesday also marked a shift in the Social Democrats' attitude toward NATO. There are also Swedish media reports that Andersson has made up his mind to bring Sweden to NATO in June this year.
Recently, Sweden's opposition parties have expressed their position on joining NATO. Four of the opposition parties, the center-right, support Sweden's entry into NATO; the leader of the far-right Sweden Democratic Party, the second-largest opposition party, said earlier this month that it would also support Sweden's membership if Finland applied for NATO membership.
The only parties that still oppose Sweden's nato membership are the Greens and the left. Sweden will hold parliamentary elections on September 11, and whether to join NATO has become one of the key issues in the election.
A survey by Swedish pollster Kantor-Sifo at the end of last month showed that 59 percent of respondents believed that if Finland joined NATO, Sweden should join NATO as well; only 17 percent opposed it. If Finland does not join NATO, but sweden joins, the support rate drops to 41 percent and the opposition rises to 26 percent.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has already said he welcomed Finland and Sweden to nato. If the two countries apply, they need to be agreed by all 30 NATO members to join.
Several NATO members, including the United States, Britain, Turkey, France and Greece, have said they would not oppose Finland's accession, but Hungary could become a source of uncertainty.
Hungary and Russia have been working closely together, and the country strongly opposes sanctions on Russia's energy sector. In addition, Finland angered Hungary over the rule of law when it held the presidency of the European Commission in 2019. At the time, the Hungarian media referred to Finland as Hungary's "new enemy."