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2022.4.13 Early warning information
Economy makes most of life, and love for the economy is the root of all virtues. - George Bernard Shaw
Industry risk
Imports fell sharply more than expected in March How does the short-term fluctuation of foreign trade look at the market?
Customs released data on Wednesday that the growth rate of mainland imports in March exceeded expectations from rising to falling, but the downward trend in export growth was relatively small, and the scale of trade surplus in the first quarter still reached the highest level in the same period of history. According to the data, the total value of the mainland's imports and exports in March was US$504.79 billion, an increase of 7.5%, the trade surplus was US$47.38 billion, exports were US$276.08 billion, an increase of 14.7% year-on-year, and imports were US$228.7 billion, down 0.1% year-on-year. Market participants pointed out that the epidemic situation at home and abroad has changed, and the impact on domestic and foreign trade has gradually been reflected, and it is expected that the situation of high foreign trade surplus may narrow in the future. In addition, the Data Offinanciation News Agency's April "C50 Wind Direction Index" survey showed that the market expects domestic import and export data to continue to decline in March this year.
Industry watershed! E-cigarette mandatory national standard approved Implementation time determined The stock price of the giant in the industry rebounded
On April 12, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China approved the mandatory national standard for "electronic cigarettes", and the national standard will be implemented from October 1, 2022. Industry insiders said that this will fill the gap in the industry and end the long-term production stage of the domestic e-cigarette industry without national standards, which is of great significance to the healthy development of the industry. Affected by this news, e-cigarette giant Wuxin Technology's U.S. stocks rose more than 14% intraday, and the closing gains narrowed to 1.6%.
A-share risk
Who the hell is listening to? CITIC Securities lowered the target price of Moutai and dropped by nearly 800 yuan! China Merchants Securities pushed hard: it could rise to 2800
Recently, CITIC Securities released a research report entitled "Guizhou Moutai: Seeking Change in Adversity, Good Times Are Not Lazy", and the target price of Moutai given by the report is 2246 yuan, and the rating is buy. In February last year, the target price of Moutai in the "Guizhou Moutai: Three Trillion Yuan from the Beginning, The Spring Breeze of Changpo Thick Snow" released by the same CITIC Securities was 3,000 yuan. A little over a year later, CITIC adjusted the target price of Moutai from 3,000 yuan to less than 2,300 yuan. Previously, the reason for the target price set at 3,000 yuan, the research report said that after the optimistic company's market value stood at 3 trillion, there is still a broad space for a long time, based on the continuous optimism of the company's fundamentals, as well as the valuation improvement space under high certainty, so the company's 1-year target price was raised to 3,000 yuan.
Hot search first! Master Kong's old sauerkraut instant noodles "killed back"
On the morning of April 13, the news of Master Kong's old sauerkraut instant noodles returning to the supermarket shelves was at the top of the Weibo hot search list. On March 15, after the CCTV 3.15 evening party exposed that the sauerkraut used in Laotan sauerkraut instant noodles was "tukeng sauerkraut", Master Kong, Unity and other enterprises apologized overnight. Many supermarkets in kunming removed related products on the evening of March 15. Recently, in some supermarkets, Laotan sauerkraut instant noodles have returned to the shelves, and together with the shelves, there are documents such as the "Administrative Recommendation" issued by the Songming County Market Supervision and Administration Bureau on March 23, 2022.
28 housing enterprises with more than 3 trillion yuan of interest-bearing liabilities to be repaid How should companies with cash short-term debt ratios approaching the red line respond?
It has been more than a year since the "cash defense war" of housing enterprises began, and in this battle, the level of debt servicing has become the first skill for enterprises to survive. As of April 12, according to the statistics of the "Securities Daily" reporter, among the 28 listed real estate enterprises (including unaudited performance) of the "100 billion yuan club (based on full-caliber sales)" that have announced their 2021 financial reports, the proportion of cash short-term debt of 8 real estate companies such as Longfor Group, Xuhui Holdings and Vanke is more than 2 times, 15 such as Times China Holdings are between 1 times and 2 times, and 5 such as R&F Real Estate are less than 1 times.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: Closed the telephone banking and ICBC E investment channels for personal foreign exchange trading business
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced that since 00:00 Beijing time on April 17, 2022, our bank has closed the telephone banking and ICBC E investment channels for personal foreign exchange trading business. Since 00:00 Beijing time on June 12, 2022, our bank has suspended the signing of new customers in personal foreign exchange trading business and the opening of all trading varieties, and the closing transactions of customers who hold positions will not be affected. This time, our bank only adjusts the personal foreign exchange trading business, and does not involve the personal settlement and sale of foreign exchange business.
Leading brokerage revenue declines! What signal? The first quarter performance of the securities industry is "ugly"? The seller predicts this
The performance of securities companies in the first quarter of this year may not be optimistic. On the evening of April 12, the head securities company CITIC Securities took the lead in disclosing the first quarter of 2022 performance express, with operating income falling by 7.2% and net profit slightly increasing by 1.24%. Does this indicate that the industry's first quarter performance is not satisfactory? Recently, many brokerage analysts believe that the performance of securities companies in the first quarter will decline, and the decline in net profit is predicted to range from 11% to 21%. Individual analysts are more optimistic, believing that the whole industry and the head brokers have double-digit growth.
Risk of Chinese stocks
Keep putting pressure on! The United States adds 12 Chinese companies to the "pre-delisting list"
On Tuesday (April 12), local time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) added 12 Chinese companies to the "pre-delisting" list, the fourth batch of Chinese companies to be included in the list since March. The list includes: Microvast, China Automobile Systems, Daqo New Energy, Connad Biologics, OneConnect, Green Map Biotechnology, Legendary Biologics, Sohu, Melco Shadow, Melco Boya Entertainment, Logiq and Noah Holdings.
Rider delivers meals disabled Hungry Mo claims there is no employment relationship and refuses to compensate The court ruled
According to a civil judgment disclosed by the judgment document network, a "Hungry Mo" rider was disabled due to a traffic accident during the delivery of takeaway in the early morning, and the rider sued the "Hungry Mo" platform for compensation, and "Hungry Mo" said that there was no employment relationship with the rider and refused to compensate. The court held that although the rider and the employment platform had not signed an employment contract, the two parties belonged to a new type of employment relationship, which was in line with the employment relationship in the legal sense. In the end, the court ordered the "Hungry Mo" platform to compensate the rider for 1.09 million yuan.
New Third Board Risks
One million "bonus" to 5 people sentenced to 4-7 years in the first instance What is the hidden reason behind the "job encroachment" case of SongDa Education?
On the first working day of 2022, songda education (430244), a company listed on the New Third Board, issued an uncommon "announcement on the progress of the incident" - a "job encroachment" case reported by the company three years ago, ushering in a first-instance judgment. In this case of "job embezzlement", five people, including the former securities representative of Songda Education and the former financial director and deputy director of the subsidiary, were sentenced to prison terms ranging from 4 to 7 years for their involvement in the embezzlement of the company's property. The reason for the occurrence of the criminal case is that these 5 people participated in a series of asset transfer acts planned and directed by the company's senior management.
Hong Kong stock risk
Chia Tai Youxian Old Palace Branch was fined for selling expired food under the Chia Tai Group
Recently, the Beijing Municipal Administration of Market Supervision and Administration issued an administrative penalty decision (Jingjiguan Municipal Supervision Penalty [2022] No. 70), and the Jiugong Branch of Chia Tai Youxian (Beijing) Trading Co., Ltd. had the following illegal facts: the parties purchased 3 bottles of "Runxin Organic Oil Tea Seed Oil", the production date was August 7, 2020, the shelf life was 18 months, and the validity period was February 6, 2022, due to the negligence of the clerk, the effective date was marked as April 7, 2022, and the food was disposed of according to the temporary period of 50 yuan / bottle. The whistleblower purchased 2 bottles on 1 March 2022, and the Commerce and Finance Bureau seized the last bottle when it came to the store for inspection. The value of the expired food "Runxin Organic Oil Tea Seed Oil" sold by the parties was 150 yuan, and the illegal income was 100 yuan.
The "original internet red restaurant" Green Tea Group turned a loss last year, and the turnover rate was not as good as that of its peers
On 8 April, Green Tea Group Limited ("Green Tea Group"), the operator of casual Chinese restaurants, submitted an application for listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Citi and CMB International are its co-sponsors. This is already the third time that Green Tea Group has delivered the table. In March last year, Green Tea Group submitted its first listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for listing on the Main Board of Hong Kong. However, due to incorrect information in the prospectus, the listing application for the version was disclosed to be "invalid" six months later. Subsequently, in October of the same year, Green Tea Group again submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and disclosed the prospectus after the hearing in March this year, but the listing application materials were "invalid" again.
International risks
The world's largest independent oil trader: Will stop trading Russian crude before the end of the year
Vitol Group, the world's largest independent oil trader, said it intends to stop trading crude oil and petroleum products from Russia altogether by the end of the year. A Vido Group spokesperson told the media in an email that the amount of Russian oil handled by Vido "will be significantly reduced in the second quarter due to the decline in the current contract volume." We expect this to stop completely by the end of 2022. The company reiterated that it will not participate in any new Russian crude oil and products trading.
U.S. inflation data is a 40-year high! The Hawks of the Fed governors have spoken out: monetary policy will quickly shift to neutral
The Hawks of the Fed governors have spoken out: monetary policy will quickly shift to neutral. In response to the soaring CPI data, Fed Governor Brainard spoke out quickly that reducing soaring inflation is the Fed's current primary goal, noting that the Fed would act "quickly" to raise interest rates to neutral levels. The combined effect will make the policy neutral by the end of 2022, she said. Policy implementation is not expected to be rigid. Swift action gives us more options for the future. "I expect the combined effect of shifting policy to more neutral interest rates and lower balance sheets will reduce inflation and ease demand," she added. She also believes the Fed can ease price pressures without triggering an economic downturn. She also noted that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has led to inflation, especially rising energy prices.
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