【Today's Best】
U.S. PPI rose 11.2% year-on-year in March, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain
Fed Governor Waller: Leaning toward a 50 basis point rate hike in May, inflation is expected to peak
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled and will stop buying bonds at the end of the month
Oil traders will cut Russian oil purchases from May 15
JPMorgan Chase increased its provision for bad debts, saying the likelihood of a recession was slightly up
National Standing Committee: Timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts to reduce the cost of comprehensive financing
ICBC will tighten the channels of personal foreign exchange trading business and not involve personal settlement and sale of foreign exchange
Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: No document has been issued to reduce the limit for personal online transactions
China Mutual Fund Association and other three associations: resolutely curb the tendency of NFT financialization and securitization
【Market Inventory】
Spot gold began to rise slowly from the European session, the US market repeatedly tested at the 1980 integer mark, closing up 0.59% at 1978.24 US dollars / ounce; spot silver continued to rise, sharply closed up 1.55% at 25.74 US dollars / ounce.
The dollar index broke through 100.5 intraday, and the US session fell sharply, falling below the 100 mark, closing down 0.489% at 99.86; the 10-year US Treasury yield began to fall during the European session, falling to near 2.7%.
Crude oil continued its rebound trend, with WTI crude oil closing up 2.7% at $104.66 per barrel and Brent crude closing up 3.53% at $110.39 per barrel.
In the stock market, the performance of many companies generally beat expectations, driving the US stock market upward on Wednesday, the three major stock indexes collectively closed high, the Dow closed up 1.01% at 34564.59 points; the S&P 500 index closed up 1.13%, at 4447.15 points; the NASDAQ closed up more than 2% at 13643.59 points; aviation, cruise and other travel concept sectors led the market.
Major European stock indexes were mixed, with the German DAX closing down 0.34% at 14076.44, the UK FTSE 100 closing up 0.05% at 7580.8, and the European Stoxx 50 closing down 0.09% at 3827.96.
The three major Hong Kong stock indexes closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.26%, the National Index up 0.69%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 0.45%, all of which rose more than 1% intraday. The concept of commodities rose sharply, gold, coal, oil and other sectors performed the best, and pharmaceutical outsourcing concepts and medical aesthetic concept stocks fell.
The three major A-share stock indexes opened low and went low, and the Shanghai index turned red in the afternoon, and finally closed down 0.83% at 3186.82 points; the Shenzhen Component Index closed down 1.6%, and the ChiNext Index reported 3186.82 points; down 2.25%. On the disk, the coal sector rose sharply, the warehousing and logistics sector was strong again, and the nonferrous metals, oil, gas supply and heating, steel, and banking sectors strengthened; the Internet, tourism, medicine, semiconductor and other sectors adjusted, and digital currencies, online games, and meta-universe concepts fell in the front.
On the cryptocurrency side, Bitcoin edged up above $41,000 and Ethereum rose back around $3,100.
【International News】
Russia's plan to sanction 398 U.S. congressmen will announce further countermeasures
The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that in response to the US government's sanctions imposed on 328 deputies of the State Duma in the Russian Federation's parliament on March 24 this year, the Russian side decided to impose "mirror" sanctions on 398 members of the US House of Representatives. The Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that in view of the sanctions continuously introduced by the United States, Russia plans to further announce countermeasures in the near future, including expanding the number of individuals on the "prohibited list" and other retaliatory measures.
The United States is considering sending a senior official to Kiev as one of the candidates, the Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense
According to Politico, two U.S. officials revealed that the Biden administration was engaged in internal discussions about sending a senior official to Kiev to express further support for Ukraine. Discussions within the White House are still being made about the possibility of a visit, and no decision has yet been made. U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Harris are likely to travel to Kiev, but cabinet members such as Secretary of State Blinken or Defense Secretary Austin are much more likely to visit Ukraine, the officials said.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: It will take a long time for the dollar to be replaced in the world
Yellen said it would take a long time even if the dollar's reserve currency status were to be replaced. Sanctions against Russia show the importance of the dollar, the euro and partnerships with allies. The United States and its allies will not be indifferent to countries that "undermine sanctions against Russia."
U.S. PPI rose 11.2% year-on-year in March, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain
U.S. producer price PPI rose 11.2 percent year-over-year in March, its highest since 2010; up 1.4 percent month-on-month, the highest since August 2012. This highlights the persistence of early inflationary pressures and the potential to be transmitted to consumers.
Fed Governor Waller: Leaning toward a 50 basis point rate hike in May, inflation is expected to peak
Waller said it tends to raise rates by 50 basis points in May and possibly also in June and July; hopes to reach above neutral rates in the second half of the year. Inflation is expected to have peaked and will retreat.
Fed Bullard: Raising interest rates to neutral interest rates will not suppress inflation
St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the idea that a modest rate hike would dampen the CPI was "fantasy" and he called for interest rates to be raised above the neutral range, i.e. to a level that would curb economic growth. Bullard argues that the Fed's benchmark policy rate should be raised "substantially" after the May meeting and supports raising rates by 300 basis points from the current range by the third quarter.
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled and will stop buying bonds at the end of the month
The Bank of Canada announced a 50 basis point hike to 1%, in line with market expectations; it will stop buying government bonds on April 25 to begin shrinking its balance sheet. Bank of Canada Governor Michaelum said a pause in rate hikes could happen if inflation quickly became dovish. USDCAD continued to move lower during the US session, falling more than 100 points from its intraday high.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points, stressing the continued tightening of the monetary environment
The RBNZ unexpectedly raised rates by 50 basis points to 1.5%, after the market expected a 25 basis point hike. The Committee recognized the need to further increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to meet the requirements of its mandate. The RBNZ also said it would continue to tighten the monetary environment.
Kuroda reiterated his commitment to continue accommodative monetary policy
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Kuroda reiterated that it would not hesitate to step up easing if necessary. USDJPY broke through its previous high of 125.86, the highest since June 2002. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that the sudden fluctuations in foreign exchange are problematic and will not comment on foreign exchange levels.
The IEA cut its 2022 global oil demand growth forecast by 260,000 b/d
According to the IEA monthly report, the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2022 was revised down by 260,000 b/d; the average global oil demand in 2022 is expected to be 99.4 million b/d, an increase of 1.9 million b/d year-on-year. Russia's oil shutdown is expected to increase to 3 million bpd starting in May.
Oil traders will cut Russian oil purchases from May 15
Foreign media quoted sources as saying that large oil traders will reduce their purchases of oil from Russian oil company Rosneft from May 15 to ensure compliance when EU restrictions take effect on May 15.
Germany rejected the EU's proposal to impose an embargo on Russian oil
A German government spokesman said the government was currently rejecting the EU's proposal to impose an embargo on Russian oil. Separately, Germany reiterated its opposition to paying Russian energy in rubles, saying German companies would continue to pay for Russian gas in euros.
EU warns: Putin's decree requiring payments for Russian gas purchases in rubles would violate sanctions
The EU warns member states that Russian President Vladimir Putin's demand that "unfriendly countries" settle gas purchases in rubles would violate the EU's current sanctions against Russia. U.S. natural gas futures surged 6 percent during the day, rising below $7/MM For the first time since January.
Iranian Foreign Minister: A preliminary agreement has been reached with a foreign bank on the unfreezing of Iranian assets
Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahyan announced that Iran had reached a preliminary agreement with a foreign bank to unfreeze Iranian assets. He said the preliminary agreement was reached with a foreign delegation in the capital, Tehran, but he did not say which country the delegation came from.
German economic think tank: German GDP growth cut sharply to 2.7%
German economic think tanks say GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are revised down to 2.7 percent from 4.8 percent. If Russia abruptly stops its energy supply, GDP growth is expected to be 1.9 percent in 2022. In addition, the CPI in Germany is expected to be 6.1% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023.
JPMorgan Chase increased its provision for bad debts, saying the likelihood of a recession was slightly up
JPMorgan added a $902 million provision for bad debts, saying the likelihood of a recession was slightly raised due to rising inflation and the conflict in Ukraine. This is the first time the bank has increased its provision for bad debts since the outbreak was at its worst in 2020.
S&P downgraded Sri Lanka's foreign currency rating to CC with a negative outlook
Rating agency S&P downgraded Sri Lanka's foreign currency rating from CCC to CC, with a negative outlook. S&P said Sri Lanka's debt restructuring process could be complex and could take months to complete.
【Domestic News】
Xi Jinping inspected in Hainan: Accelerate the construction of a free trade port with Chinese characteristics with world influence
According to CCTV, Xi Jinping stressed during his inspection in Hainan that emancipating the mind, pioneering and innovating, uniting and struggling, overcoming difficulties, and accelerating the construction of a free trade port with Chinese characteristics with world influence.
National Standing Committee: Timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts to reduce the cost of comprehensive financing
According to CCTV, Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council, which pointed out that the deployment of policy measures to promote consumption will help stabilize the basic economic plate and ensure the improvement of people's livelihood; timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction to further increase financial support for the real economy, especially industries seriously affected by the epidemic, small and medium-sized enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial households, and make reasonable concessions to the real economy and reduce comprehensive financing costs.
General Administration of Customs: In the first quarter, the mainland's imports and exports increased by 10.7%, and foreign trade started smoothly
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first quarter of this year, the total import and export value of the mainland's trade in goods was 9.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 5.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.4%,; imports were 4.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%.
ICBC will tighten the channels of personal foreign exchange trading business and not involve personal settlement and sale of foreign exchange
ICBC announced on its official website that in order to comply with changes in the market situation, it will close some channels of personal foreign exchange trading business in the near future, and suspend the signing of new customers and the opening of all trading varieties in the near future. This adjustment does not involve the business of personal settlement and sale of foreign exchange, and the business of personal settlement and sale of foreign exchange can be handled normally.
Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: No document has been issued to reduce the limit for personal online transactions
Recently, the news about "many banks lowering the online transaction limit of personal accounts" has received widespread attention. The reporter of "Rule of Law Daily" consulted the relevant person in charge of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on this and got a reply that the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission did not issue special documents.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Make every effort to grasp the spring ploughing production and the supply of "vegetable basket" products
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a special meeting of the ministry leaders to emphasize that it is necessary to actively respond to the impact of the epidemic, maintain the order of agricultural production and circulation, and make every effort to grasp the spring ploughing production and the supply of "vegetable basket" products.
Shanghai: Measures will be taken to deal with the significant increase in the price of courier fees and errands
The Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Market Supervision will take joint measures to further regulate the problem of the obvious increase in the price of express delivery fees and errands fees that everyone is concerned about. The Shanghai market supervision department will continue to strengthen the supervision and law enforcement of the price behavior of business operators, strengthen the supervision of the price behavior of "community group buying", and use a variety of means to regulate the price behavior of business operators.
The country's first affordable rental housing REITs project has been submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission
According to Xinhua News Agency, the reits products for the distribution of affordable rental housing have made breakthrough progress, and the Shenzhen Talent Settlement Group project has recently been submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission, becoming the first officially declared affordable rental housing REITs project in the country.
The work plan of the Industrial Internet Special Working Group was released to create an upgraded version of "5G + Industrial Internet"
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "2022 Work Plan of the Industrial Internet Special Working Group", which mentions that it supports eligible industrial Internet companies to issue securities and go public for the first time; continues to improve the construction of the national industrial Internet big data center; and builds an upgraded version of "5G + Industrial Internet".
The national unified e-cigarette trading management platform will be launched on June 15
The State Administration for Market Regulation and the relevant departments of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration revealed that since June 15, e-cigarette-related production enterprises, wholesale enterprises and retail market entities that have obtained tobacco monopoly-related licenses have gradually traded on the e-cigarette trading management platform.
Guangdong: By 2025, the operating income of the province's new energy industry will reach 730 billion yuan
The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development in Guangdong Province", which proposes that the main goals for 2025 are: the comprehensive energy production capacity will reach more than 100 million tons of standard coal, the total installed power capacity in the province will reach 238 million kilowatts, the maximum transmission capacity of west-to-east power will reach 45 million kilowatts (transmission end), and the natural gas supply capacity will reach 80 billion cubic meters per year。 By 2025, the operating income of the province's new energy industry will reach 730 billion yuan, forming a leading new energy industry cluster in China.
China Mutual Fund Association and other three associations: resolutely curb the tendency of NFT financialization and securitization
The China Internet Finance Association, the China Banking Association, and the Securities Association of China issued initiatives on preventing financial risks related to NFTs, resolutely curbing the tendency of NFTs to financialize and securitize, strictly preventing the risks of illegal financial activities, and consciously abiding by codes of conduct.
Continental quantum direct communication broke the world's farthest record of 100 kilometers
Mainland scientists have recently designed a new quantum direct communication system with mixed coding of phase quantum states and timestamp quantum states, successfully realizing quantum direct communication of 100 kilometers. This is currently the longest quantum direct communication distance in the world.
The middle and lower reaches resist the impact of the superimposed epidemic Lithium carbonate price fell below 500,000 yuan for the first time
The resistance of middle and downstream manufacturers to high-priced lithium superimposed on the impact of the epidemic on supply chains and blocked logistics, resulting in some manufacturers lowering production schedules and price corrections in lithium carbonate. Xinzhu lithium battery data show that the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate on April 12 fell by 5,000 yuan to 495,000 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.
【Risk Warning】
☆ The ECB will announce the interest rate decision at 19:45, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference at 20:30. Citi expects the ECB to slightly accelerate the pace of monetary policy normalization in the coming months, but at Thursday's meeting, the bank is unlikely to make any decision other than to reaffirm the optionality of two-way policy.
☆ 20:30 will announce the US March retail sales m/m, the market is expected to reach 0.60%, up from the previous value of 0.3%. Also released is the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week until April 9, and the performance of two important economic data is expected to affect the Fed's interest rate hike expectations.
☆ Tonight and early tomorrow morning there will be speeches from foMC permanent voting commissioner Williams (20:45), 2022 FOMC voting mester (02:30) and 2023 FOMC voting huck (06:00), pay attention to their attitudes on interest rate levels and balance sheet reduction.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting on the situation of the oil and gas industry. Putin said on Wednesday that Russia could increase domestic oil and gas consumption and increase energy exports to new markets.
This article originated from Golden Ten Finance