In the 1980s, the emergence of 6-inch wafers represented the formal development of the semiconductor industry towards mature commercialization, and then for nearly 10 years, 6-inch wafers were chased as the highest specification for wafer manufacturing.
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Jiwei network news, in the 1980s, the emergence of 6-inch wafers represented the semiconductor industry officially towards mature commercialization, and then in the past 10 years, 6 inches as the highest specifications of wafer manufacturing, was chased.
Today, few people can recall the glorious years that belong to 6 inches, even in the 8-inch radiant now that the chip famine is about to exit, few people have noticed that the 6-inch production line that is "nearly confused" is also silently exerting the rest of the heat, and even has the potential of dead wood in spring.
A senior semiconductor industry insider told the author that under the continuous shortage of 8-inch supply, many low-end chip products have been transferred to the 6-inch production line, and, driven by the difficulty of obtaining 8-inch equipment and the price being speculated to sky-high prices, many new plans for 6-inch production lines are already in progress.
8-inch "fire" to 6-inch chip factory production line to move just for production capacity
Looking at the lack of cores, the presence of 6 inches is very low, the cover is too strong because of the 8 inches, the big factories are still eager for the "upstart" 12 inches, more importantly, the overall industry has been selling 6 inches for decades, and 6 inches will soon be eliminated is still people's inertial thinking.
IC Insights, a 2019 report, wrote that from 2009 to 2018, a total of 42 150mm fabs were closed worldwide, accounting for 43.3% of all fab closures (97). Zhao Yi, research director of Jiwei Consulting, also told the author that even Chinese mainland that currently have up to 6-inch production lines have not seen a new construction plan for 6-inch production lines in recent years.
Number of fabs of various sizes closed worldwide from 2009 to 2018; Source: IC Insights
However, taking away from inertial thinking and carefully reading the few 6-inch related messages, it is full of information. For example, in the second half of 2020, there is news that due to the full load of 8-inch production capacity, many chips originally produced on the 8-inch production line have switched to the 6-inch production line. But then the rumors of power management ICs turning to 12 inches have diverted people's attention, after all, 6 inches are far less "sexy" than 12 inches.
For example, the memory factory Wanghong sold its 6-inch production line for the production of niche logic ICs, which unexpectedly attracted the attention of the industry, and the rumored buyers included Tokyo Electronics and Chinese mainland manufacturers, etc., and finally for NT$2.52 billion was taken by Hon Hai, which strides into the electric vehicle industry, which said that it plans to plan that in the future, the factory's main products will be supplemented by silicon wafer products such as micro-electromechanical system MEMS in addition to SiC power devices.
Timing to the first half of this year, 6 inches and "short supply" more and more commonly appeared, Taiwan media reports revealed that some 6-inch factories to take orders to soft, the main reason is that the international IDM will be free of production capacity to car chips, the niche products to the second and third-tier manufacturers, the author has been in the "international IDM can not eat the MOSFET orders Chinese mainland won? The existence of the phenomenon of transferring orders was confirmed to the industry.
The latest news is that Renesas Japan Yamaguchi 6-inch factory sales plan again called off, the author learned from the bidding manufacturers, suspected of participating in the bidding Mitsui Sumitomo also said that Renesas has withdrawn the surrender, Yamaguchi plant has a great possibility will be fully acquired after the operation in situ, this plan will allow Renesas to save the unpacking fee, but also shows that this 1985 production line that was put into production "grandfather-level" production line, is unexpectedly being chased.
All of the above shows that 6 inches are "on fire" and are on the trend of increasing fire, and 8 inches of production capacity is in short supply, which is the biggest reason for the 6 inches to become hot again. The above-mentioned industry veteran told the author that the continuous shortage of supply in 8 inches and the high cost of switching to 12 inches have prompted some niche IC product manufacturers to shift to 6-inch production such as low-end MOSFET devices.
12-inch "upgrade" difficult 6-inch cost-effective advantages are fully displayed
As mentioned above, in the past few years when the supply of 8-inch production capacity has been in short supply, the industry once pinned its hopes on the 8-inch product to 12 inches, after all, thinner line width and higher cutting efficiency are still the driving force for the industry to move forward, but at present, this attempt has not worked well.
The author once learned from the foundry in "[Core View] Behind the Expansion of SMIC Shenzhen: Power Management IC To 12-inch Doubtful Cloud Rise" that the process of conversion of 8-inch products to 12-inch needs to replace equipment, and the difference in equipment will cause different process models and need to be redesigned and verified, this process may take half a year to a year, such as power management ICs even take 2-3 years.
In addition to the cost of time, the construction of a 12-inch production line is still not an easy task, even for TSMC and other head foundries and international IDMs such as TI, the construction of 12-inch production capacity often involves huge capital investment, a long factory construction cycle, in the current international situation and the sharp increase in the risk of raw material supply, large factories are still cautious about the construction of 12-inch factories.
The value of the product itself is also the reason why the power of 8 inches to 12 inches is not very sufficient. For example, the currently very tight low-end MOSFETs, diodes and other power devices, which are not expensive in themselves, but have a wide range of applications, and compared to higher processes, the foundation of the establishment is more in high reliability, so compared to 12 inches, the production line itself is cheaper, but more mature production line or better choice.
On the other hand, 8 inches to 6 inches, some products can be said to be "seamless". Zhao Yi told the author that as long as it is silicon-based, 6-inch and 8-inch products are basically overlapping, mainly in the line width range of 90nm and above, that is, the line width of products in this range, 6-inch, 8-inch production lines can be produced, the difference is mainly in compound semiconductors, including GaAs, SiC, etc., currently more stay on 6 inches.
According to industry insiders, some equipment of the 6-inch and 8-inch production lines can be shared, such as lithography machine, PVD, CVD, Etch, etc. All of this would mean that the long validation cycle faced by an 8-inch to 12-inch turn would not occur on a turn of 6 inches. "If the chip function and performance can meet the relevant tests, it should not need too complicated verification." Zhao Yi said.
It should be pointed out that 6 inches in the acquisition of equipment, the problems faced and 8 inches are similar, because the head equipment factory has almost all stopped the production of 6 inches equipment, so the current production line is even three-hand, four-hand equipment refurbishment. Industry insiders said that the price of 6-inch equipment has almost doubled this year, but because of its overall stock, it is still more accessible than 8-inch equipment and the price is lower.
6-inch long-term demand divergence large new production capacity or boost equipment domestic substitution
As for whether the 8-inch to 6-inch will become a long-term trend, that is, whether the 6-inch will usher in a larger market, from the results of the author's exchanges with a number of industry insiders and analysts, the divergence is more obvious.
Zhao Yi believes that for now, the rise in demand for 6 inches is more due to the spillover caused by the lack of 8 inches of production capacity, and with the landing of new production capacity, whether this part of the demand can continue is doubtful. According to THE DATA OF IC Insights as of 2019, Chinese mainland manufacturers represented by Silan Micro and China Resources Micro account for the majority of 6-inch production capacity, and according to Zhao Yi, even in Chinese mainland, there has been almost no new 6-inch production capacity in recent years.
Image source: IC Insights
However, the above-mentioned industry insiders said that due to the current 6-inch supply is in short supply, Chinese mainland the largest production capacity of Silan Micro and China Resources Micro capacity is fully loaded, or there is no spare capacity to receive orders from 8 inches to 6 inches, and even the second and third-line small foundries do not have production capacity, in this case, the new or expansion of 6-inch production capacity has become the choice of some manufacturers, "less expansion, more new construction." ”
In essence, this practice that runs counter to the general trend seems contradictory, and it has the meaning of "making steady profits and not losing money". First, the chip famine that continues so far has repeatedly proved that the chip industry is a whole, for a single product, advanced process chips are indeed important, but even if a chip of mature processes is missing, it will also cause a shortage of goods, with the application of the digital age emerging in an endless stream, mature process chips are the market can foresee the breadth.
Second, due to the shortage of mature chips, most of its production capacity is still in the hands of international IDM, and international IDM hinders its business model, often hesitates in expanding production, and, at present, most international IDM has turned its business to higher profit margins in the industrial control, automotive fields, and the application of small household appliances and other areas of low-end chip market, may be the 6-inch production line to play its best cost-effective stage.
What is more worth pondering is that for Chinese equipment manufacturers, more 6-inch production line construction will also provide them with opportunities for trial and error. As we all know, China's semiconductor equipment still has great challenges in domestic substitution, but compared with the equipment on the 8-inch and 12-inch and 6-inch production lines, in addition to lithography machines, measuring equipment, etc., there have been mass-produced domestic alternative products.
Past examples have taught us that it takes time to build trust between foundries and equipment plants, and that successful collaboration will be a win-win situation, such as ASML and TSMC. For Chinese foundries and equipment manufacturers, 6 inches can be described as an excellent entry point for the two sides to establish cooperation. "Starting from 6 inches to cultivate tacit understanding, and then in more advanced production lines, the foundry will trust domestic equipment more."
Source: Aijiwei