Yesterday, the three major indexes all went lower, the Shanghai index lost the 3200 point integer mark, the ChiNext board also ushered in a new low since this round of adjustment, and the two cities fell by more than 4100 individual stocks. Without too many warnings, yesterday's decline, the market is more due to the inversion of Sino-US interest rates.
According to the Shanghai Securities News, during the intraday session on April 11, the Sino-US 10-year Treasury bond spread was inverted, the first time since 2010. As of the close of the day, the 10-year Chinese Treasury Bond Active Yield was 2.7402%, and the 10-year Us Treasury yield was above 2.76%. We don't care how this concrete is formed, only look at its specific impact, especially the impact on our A shares.
In general, the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond mainly reflects changes in a country's economic fundamentals as well as monetary policy and inflation expectations. The United States has suffered a rare inflation in the past 40 years, and domestic inflation is moderate, and under the loose internal and external tensions of monetary policy, the divergence and differentiation of policies are the main factors in the inversion of The Sino-US interest rate differential. Under this inverted trend, usually the market will be under pressure. Typically, people are worried about the outflow of funds. At the same time, this inversion may also remain constrained by domestic monetary policy space, and the capital side will also face short-term outflow pressure.
It is precisely because of this that yesterday the market appeared in the "Black Monday" when all three major indexes fell. This concern may persist in the short term, and there will be some pressure on the market.
However, just yesterday we also saw that the Securities Regulatory Commission and other three departments issued a document to encourage institutions to increase capital market investment and support the transformation of listed real estate enterprises, which is beneficial to stabilizing corporate confidence and investor confidence, is also beneficial to stable policy expectations, and theoretically has a positive effect on market sentiment. At the same time, yesterday's social financing data also exceeded expectations, which was a boost to the market.
However, this positive impact cannot be completely offset by the impact of the inversion of Interest Rates between China and the United States. Even, to a certain extent, the market's concerns and worries about the capital side are more important. The market is often more than expected, short-term financial pressures and expectations of monetary policy implementation may be reduced, still bringing pressure to the market.
Therefore, even if the market rebounds in the short term because of the boost of the policy, on the basis of not strong sustainability or little strength, the stage should still be cautious, especially in the current situation where the three major indexes have formed a downward resonance, or pay attention to the continued decline of the overall center of gravity here.