According to the current growth and development status of apricot blossoms in Zarut Qishan, combined with the previous meteorological conditions and future climate trend forecasts, it is expected that the flowering period of Zarut qishan apricots in 2022 will be slightly later than last year, and the initial flowering period from south to north will be from April 19 to 27, and the full flowering period will be from April 22 to May 1.
First, the analysis of climatic conditions in the early stage
Generally, the temperature and sunshine from March to early and mid-April have a greater impact on the initial flowering period of mountain apricot blossoms. From March to early April 2022, the average temperature in the town of Qilubei in Zarut is 3.3 °C and the number of sunshine hours is 337.9 hours, while the average temperature in Bayartuhushuo Town is -0.6 °C and the number of sunshine hours is 364.7 hours.
Compared with the same period in 2021 and the same period of the year, the average temperature in both places is lower than the same period in 2021, but it is higher than the same period of the year (Figure 1); the number of sunshine hours in both places is less than the same period in 2021 and the same period of the year (Figure 2), which is not conducive to the development of mountain apricot blossoms.
Figure 1 Comparison of average temperatures in 2022 and 2021 and the same period of the year
Figure 2 Comparison of sunshine hours in 2022 and 2021 and the same period of the year
Second, the future weather trend
According to the analysis of the latest meteorological data, in the middle and late April, the temperature of Zarut Flag was slightly higher than that of the same period of the year and the same period last year, and the precipitation was less than the same period of the year and the same period last year. However, from April 11 to 15, the cold air activity is frequent, the sunshine is less, which is not conducive to the development of mountain apricot blossoms, and the temperature rises on the 16th, and the sunshine conditions are better, which is conducive to the development of mountain apricot blossoms.
Third, the flowering period of mountain apricot is predicted
According to the current growth and development status of apricot blossoms in Zarut Qishan, combined with the previous meteorological conditions and future climate trend forecasts, it is expected that the flowering period of Zarut qishan apricots in 2022 will be slightly later than last year, and the initial flowering period from south to north will be from April 19 to 27, and the full flowering period will be from April 22 to May 1. The specific forecast conclusions are shown in the following figure:
Figure 3 Prediction of apricot flowering period in Zarut Qishan in 2022
(Tongliao Meteorological Disaster Defense Center, Zarut Flag Meteorological Bureau, Zarut Banner Culture and Tourism Bureau)