Reporter | Wang fei
Public funds have suffered a sharp retracement of net value in the adjustment of market depth, and Sunshine Private Equity has not been spared. According to Red Weekly, among them, more than 90% of the private equity products with a floating profit of more than 10 times since its establishment in 2017 have a large drawdown in net value.
At the time of the incident of Dan Bin, chairman of Shenzhen Oriental Harbor Investment, reducing his position to avoid market risks, there were actually companies in the tens of billions of private equity circles that did similar operations, and there were also full-position crossers. Some private placements recently told Red Weekly that if the current position is still reduced, there is a good chance that the product has been liquidated.
The well-known private placement interviewed by Red Weekly said that although it is currently plagued by the downward trend of net worth, confidence is still there, and put forward the view that if there is money in the bottom period, it will increase its position. Because after the "valuation pit" appears, the "pit filling" market will definitely appear.
More than 80 billion private placement "folding"
However, the cumulative return rate of "long-term" products is still good
Since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has experienced a "squat", and as of the close of trading on April 6 (the same below), the Shanghai index has closed down 9.79%. This is rare in the history of A-shares, such as in the same period of the five years before this (2017-2021), the Shanghai Index closed up 5.71%, closed down 5.32%, closed up 30.18%, closed down 9.38% and closed up 0.29%. From the analysis point of view, the weakening of the current round of A-shares is mainly related to the weakening of both value stocks and growth stocks that have occupied the two major tracks in recent years. Take the CSI 300, which represents the value of blue chips, and the CSI 1000, which represents the growth stocks, as examples, the two major indexes closed down 13.69% and 15.56% respectively this year, and some of these companies such as Lens Technology, CITIC Bo and Guoke Micro have fallen in the front, and even have "cut their waists".
Under such a sharp decline, the voice of public funds "reporting misery" is endless, and there are many rumors of private liquidation.
Taking only the 10 billion private placement as an example, according to Wind's incomplete statistics, there are 56 stock strategic 10 billion private placements that have recently disclosed the net value of the unit, involving 822 fund products, of which 701 have lost money this year, accounting for 85.28%. There are 402 and 333 companies with retracements exceeding the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 respectively, and on the whole, more than 40% of the tens of billions of private placements have outperformed the main market indexes.
In this regard, a tens of billions of private equity fund managers admitted to Red Weekly, "The overall weakening of the market this year is the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as interest rate hikes in the United States, the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising inflation, economic downturn, and repeated epidemics, and our current investment environment is indeed not very good, more difficult than in 2018." ”
According to the statistics of "Red Weekly", the net value of some private equity products has been lower than the liquidation line. For example, the latest net value disclosed by the company of "Rongkui-Value Investment No. 1" under the ten-billion-yuan private equity Rongkui Investment was 0.6173 yuan on March 25, which was lower than the liquidation line of 0.7 yuan. This product has lost 22.96% this year.
In addition, Hanhe Capital's 6 products, such as "Hanhe Capital Phase 129", "Hanhe Capital - Shengshi 113" and "Hanhe Capital Selection 83", the latest net value disclosed on April 1 was also less than 0.7 yuan.
Compared with the products that hover near the liquidation line, there are more products that are approaching the warning line. According to the statistics of Red Weekly, there are currently 43 10 billion private equity products with an latest net value of less than 0.8 yuan. These products "come" from five private placements, including Hanhe Capital (5), Zhengyuan Investment (7), Tongben Investment (20), Xitai Investment (10) and Mingshi Investment (1).
Judging from the establishment time of the 50 products that touched the liquidation line or early warning line above, 46 were only established after 2020, accounting for 92%. The other four, namely "Little Cotton Jacket" and "Xitai Dongsheng No. 2" under Xitai Investment, "Mingshi Aohua No. 5" of Mingshi Investment, and "Tongben Consumption No. 11 Phase 1" of Tongben Investment, were established from 2017 to 2019.
Although the above-mentioned products with a long establishment time have a large drawdown, the cumulative floating profit is not low. For example, the "small cotton jacket" has so far floated a profit of 617.93%, which is the highest return on investment among these 50 products. In addition, "Xitai Dongsheng No. 2" and "Mingshi Aohua No. 5" have so far floated profits of 340.05% and 85.01% respectively, ranking second and third respectively in the return on investment of these 50 products.
This law also "applies" to other tens of billions of private equity products. Statistics show that among the 822 tens of billions of private equity products, the top 20 private equity products with investment returns since its inception were generally established in 2017 and before. For example, "Zhengyuan No. 1" under Zhengyuan Private Equity has returned 3535.83% since its establishment in 2016, which is the product with the highest return on investment at present (see Table 1).
In this regard, Lin Yuan, chairman of Linyuan Investment, has publicly stated that every time the stock that makes himself super profitable is always covered, without exception. Then, dealing with "new products" may require a certain amount of patience.
Tens of billions of private placements "completed" position adjustments
What is most needed at the moment is patience
From the perspective of the net value fluctuations of the 10 billion private placements, according to the statistics of "Red Weekly", a number of 10 billion private placements may have carried out position reduction operations during the first quarter, such as Zhan Hong Investment, which disclosed the net value of 8 products on March 28 and April 1, and the net value of its products fluctuated in the range of 0.01 to 0.048 compared with January 1 this year (see Table 2).
And "Red Weekly" also learned from a number of tens of billions of private placements that they have indeed taken relevant operations. For example, a shanghai customer covering the world's tens of billions of private equity market people told Red Weekly, "At present, our monthly report in March has not yet been launched, it is not convenient to disclose it for the time being, but we did reduce our net position in February this year." ”
In fact, not only the tens of billions of private placements, but also the private placements with a scale of 1 billion to 10 billion have also chosen to reduce their positions. A private equity market person in Shenzhen also told Red Weekly, "Our company mainly focuses on growth stocks, and the past five years have basically been in a full position, but the market this year has been too unfriendly to growth stocks (killing too fast), and we have also passively reduced some positions." After this round of killings, we have concluded that only a reduction or hedging can avoid a retracement like this year's, so our strategy will adjust in this direction in the future. However, on the whole, our fund products are mostly direct sales, and the scale of consignment sales is not very large, so the overall scale of funds is still stable, and if the proportion of consignment sales scale is large (private placement), it is estimated that it will be very hurt. ”
A private equity fund manager in Beijing admitted to Red Weekly, "In the case that the current risk has not been fully released, many of our products are currently in a very low level of position, because the channel's products will face early warning lines and liquidation lines, or maintain very low fluctuations." At present, the product positions of our channels are below 30%, and the product positions without early warning lines and liquidation lines are maintained at a medium level. ”
Overall, the reduction of private placements in the first quarter is obvious. According to the latest data from the private placement network, as of March 25, the stock private placement index was 74.19%, down 1.77% from the beginning of January. Among them, the 10 billion stock private position index was 79.87%, up 0.83% slightly from the beginning of January. In addition, the average equity private position index in March was 74.62%, lower than 75.18% in February and 76.28% in January, and the equity private placement index in March hit a new monthly low during the year. From this point of view, the private placement as a whole seems to have completed the repositioning operation.
Of course, there are also private placements that choose to cross positions. A 10 billion private equity fund manager in Beijing made it clear in an interview with Red Weekly, "We have not lowered our positions. Because our 'worst' product was issued in September last year, but the net value is still above 0.9, there is no passive position reduction. But our days are not good either. Our position is relatively high, and the weight of our direct sales is about 20%, so the pressure on the channel is still quite large, and they also 'teach' us to reduce the position. But the market has reached this point (low), and it is certainly not possible to lower (position) again. ”
Some private placements are "bottoming out", such as Chen Haoyang, chairman of Litan Investment, who pays attention to finding oversold opportunities, admitted to Red Weekly, "Litan series funds have indeed gradually increased their stock positions in this round of 'plunge', and even sold gold ETFs and some bond positions to convert into stocks." However, the bottom of this round of the market is very complicated, and there may be a relatively long 'grinding bottom' time. Because prices in Europe and the United States are currently out of control and inflation has reached a high of nearly four decades, the next large interest rate hikes and tightening of monetary policy are inevitable. At the same time, the impact of the domestic epidemic has not subsided, and it is challenging to achieve the target of 5.5% GDP this year. Therefore, after the 'bottom' buy, you need to hold it more patiently. ”
Full of confidence in the market upside
First "grind the bottom" and then valuation repair
Behind patience is faith. The above-mentioned private market person in Shenzhen told Red Weekly, "Now this position in the market is already considered to be the bottom area." According to our understanding, at present, everyone's views are actually more confident in the future market. If there is a situation of position reduction after that, it is likely to be forced by the pressure of the warning line and the liquidation line. ”
According to the statistics of "Red Weekly", the current price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai index (TTM, the same below) is 12.63 times, the CSI 300 is 12.46 times, and the CSI 1000 is 30.32 times, while its price-earnings ratio at the beginning of this year is 13.88 times, 13.99 times and 36.89 times, respectively. At the same time, the median price-earnings ratios of these three major indexes in the past five years are 13.83 times, 13.17 times and 38.33 times, respectively. In contrast, the valuation levels of these major indices in the market are currently in the lower band of their historical valuation centers.
While valuations are superior, the profitability of these index constituents is also rising. Taking Quan A as an example, 2109 companies have announced last year's operating data, with a total net profit attributable to the mother of 4.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.69% over the previous year's 3.55 trillion yuan. Among them, the two industries of banking and non-bank finance achieved net profit attributable to the mother of 1857.793 billion yuan and 419.879 billion yuan respectively, ranking first and second in the profit scale of all industries respectively, and the real estate industry, which ranked third in the previous year, gave way to the chemical industry due to the current number of companies publishing operating data of less than 30%. Specific to the performance growth rate, the overall banking industry maintained double-digit (12.70%) growth, while the non-bank financial industry was dragged down by the weighted stock Ping An of China (net profit decreased by more than 40 billion yuan), and the overall growth rate was only 0.99%.
"Red Weekly" learned that Gao Yi Asset management said in a recent letter to holders that the current decline in the market is irrational. Panic selling in the market is often a catharsis of emotions and is indiscriminate, so there will be many quality companies that are wrongly killed. "We often say in internal discussions that researchers should be more excited at this time, and the current research and ROI may be higher."
Chen Yin, director of investment research of Yuance Investment, also had a similar view in an interview with Red Weekly. Chen Yin believes that the downturn in the market in the first quarter is the result of the continuous impact of multiple factors, but this also brings two meaningful supports to the operation of the market in the second quarter: First, the impact of external factors has gradually faded, and the main contradiction now is the domestic epidemic, I believe that with the epidemic under control, there will be more measures to stabilize economic growth in the second quarter; second, from the perspective of market correction, the market's short-term killing from emotions and funds has reached the historical boundary value, and the valuation has reached a relatively low position. Most broad-based index valuations are at low quantiles below 20% over the past 5 years and should move into a repair phase based on historical experience and patterns.
Chen Yin said, "In terms of investment, we should pay attention to the support of the market by the above factors, and in the selection of individual stocks, we should also tilt to companies with value attributes and valuation security attributes, such as finance and other industries.
According to the statistics of "Red Weekly", although the banking sector has recently experienced a wave of rebound, of which the Shenwan Bank Index (801780) has rebounded by 14.71% since the low point on March 16, it is still a "valuation depression" in the market. The data shows that in The 31 first-tier industries of Shenwan, the current P/E ratio (arithmetic average method, excluding negative values, the same below) is the banking sector, which is 7.13 times; the penultimate steel sector, which is 15.90 times, about twice the valuation level of the banking sector. The same is true of the non-bank financial sector, which currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.98 times, ranking fifth from the bottom.
Not only that, from the price-to-book ratio indicator (according to the full annual report of the previous year, excluding negative values), the banking sector is 0.91 times, which is the lowest value of all sectors at present. Because the performance of banks in 2021 is much higher than that of 2020, the price-to-book ratio of banks will be lower, and banks are the only sectors in the A-share market that are currently breaking the overall net. It should be pointed out that while the banking sector has rebounded sharply, the real estate sector is also "dancing with elephants".
Or because of this, Red Weekly noted that this year's enthusiasm for institutional research on the banking sector and the real estate sector has increased significantly. The data shows that since the beginning of this year, the institution has surveyed 114 bank stocks and 27 real estate stocks, compared with only 37 and 23 times in the same period last year. Among them, bank of Ningbo, Ping An Bank, OCT A and Nanshan Holdings have received more institutional research.
In his letter to holders, Gao Yi Asset Management pointed out another direction: "Many excellent companies, the price was not cheap before, the return on investment was not necessarily high, and after the market fell systematically, it will bring better buying opportunities." For example, the blue-chip stocks represented by the 'Mao Index' have fallen by 40% since their highs, the Chinese Internet Index KWEB has fallen by 80%, the Hang Seng Technology Index has fallen by 60%, and the high-prosperity of the new energy and military industries since the beginning of the year has also fallen by more than 20%. ”
It is reported that since the beginning of this year, Gao Yi Assets has participated in a total of 7 constituent stocks of the "Mao Index", including Chenguang Shares, Huichuan Technology, Lixun Precision, LONGi Shares, Mindray Medical, Weier Shares and Zhifei Bio. Since the beginning of this year, in addition to Zhifei Biology, which closed up 9.49%, the rest of the declines are in the range of 15% to 40%.
(This article was published in Red Weekly on April 9, and the reference to individual stocks is only an example and is not recommended for trading.) ）