A shares once again "squat", the new energy sector fell in the front, and the latest research of ten fund companies came

Per reporter: Huang Xiaocong Per editor: Xiao Ruidong

Today, the A-share market has made a significant correction, with the ChiNext index falling more than 4% and the Kechuang 50 index hitting a record low. In terms of industry tracks, sectors related to new energy have fallen ahead.

For the "squat" of today's market, what kind of judgment does the institution have? The "Daily Economic News" reporter contacted a number of fund companies for the first time to see their latest interpretation.

Falling on the hot search, the fund company urgently unwinded

Let's start with a brief review of the market's performance today. Among the major indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.61%, the ChiNext Index fell by 4.2%, and the Kechuang 50 Index not only closed down 3.75%, but also fell below the index basis point of 1,000 points, creating a record low.

The reporter noted that this decline directly sent "A shares" and "funds" to the hot search.

Image source: Weibo screenshot

For such market performance, a number of fund companies have also urgently solved the situation and given their own judgments. Specifically:

Huaxia Fund: In the short term, the market mentality is more cautious, the index is still in the process of bottoming out, and the internal and external uncertainties have significantly amplified the volatility in the operation of the market, but the correction of the index has also made the medium-term investment opportunities more obvious. From the perspective of trading strategy, in addition to paying attention to and preventing short-term risk factors, we should focus on the return trend of medium- and long-term fundamental values, and after adjustment, the investment opportunities in some growth industries have become more optimistic. As of April 9, a total of 221 companies in A announced the first quarter performance forecast (disclosure accounted for about 5%), the high boom area is mainly concentrated in the upstream cycle and high-end manufacturing two major directions, of which growth stocks will still be the main line of income source of the year, while the price high can still be sustained, cycle stocks are both reverse investment and boom investment direction, growth + cycle is still the main line of investment in the follow-up market rebound process.

SPDB AXA Fund: Recently, in the context of increased uncertainty of macro factors, market sentiment is very fragile, and it is necessary to wait for the fundamentals to bottom out, the external environment to improve, and the policy easing to release the signal of fundamental repair, the market will usher in stabilization. This year, we believe there are still structural opportunities at the industrial level. The important layout opportunities for the whole year come from industries that can reflect the profitability of the expected boom after the disclosure of the quarterly report, such as military industry, photovoltaic and other sectors that deserve attention. The stable growth sector has relative defensive attributes and advantages, mainly in the real estate and consumption sectors of central enterprises.

HSBC Jinxin Fund: At present, in the medium and long term, the market valuation has been at a relatively low level, and the market valuation has reflected more pessimistic expectations, and the follow-up opportunities may be greater than the risks, which may be a good opportunity for the medium- and long-term layout. However, in the short term, uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts, inflation, repeated epidemics, and Fed policies are still not clear, market sentiment is weak, and the market may still have greater fluctuations in the short term.

Wang Jing, chief strategist of Chuangjin Hexin Fund: We believe that the impact of the epidemic on the economy continues, and the prosperity of consumption and manufacturing will inevitably come under pressure, affecting the confidence of relevant sectors. At present, the RMB exchange rate is still strong, and the pressure of capital outflow is not large, but it is more necessary to stabilize the growth policy to stimulate economic stabilization and maintain the relative attractiveness and competitive advantage of China's economy. Therefore, we believe that stable growth is still the theme of the market, and the follow-up policy increase can still be expected.

No need to rush to "grab the rebound"

In addition, for the opportunities of the future market, a number of fund companies have also given their own views.

CEIBS Funds: Historically, the emotional catharsis of A-shares tends to lead to better buying opportunities. It is just that the digestion of emotions often takes a certain amount of time, and there is still a possibility of repeated shocks in the follow-up market, but from the perspective of medium- and long-term allocation, A-shares have better investment opportunities. For risk-averse investors, in the process of market adjustment, low-valued varieties can often provide better defense. In the short term, defensiveness is still important, and it is recommended to focus on industries such as finance and real estate, such as valuation and dividend yields. In addition, chinese and Hong Kong stocks may have large repurchases after the end of the silent period of the annual report, and it is recommended to pay attention to the mapping of relevant targets to industries such as media, real estate and computers. Continue to be optimistic about new infrastructure areas with high growth and high certainty in the medium term, especially energy infrastructure, green power and digital infrastructure. Based on the fact that market oscillation and stabilization often require a long period of judgment, the configurable window period of the above industries is still long, so there is no need to rush to "grab the rebound".

Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund: Looking forward to the future, under the strict prevention and control of the domestic epidemic situation, it is expected that in the near future, the interference with production and transportation may improve significantly; at the same time, after the recent impact of the epidemic, relevant policies may increase efforts and accelerate the pace, which will help A-shares bottom out. However, at the same time, the risk sentiment increases and the fundamentals change to a certain extent, and the improvement of related factors still needs a certain amount of time; in addition, under the stock capital game, the phenomenon of rapid rotation of the industry may continue, and the market of events or news trends is relatively short-lived and should not be chased high. After today's sharp decline in the market, some of the wrongly killed targets this week may have a slight rebound opportunity after the mood stabilizes, but the shock may still be the short-term normal, investors should be more patient, as well as a more medium- and long-term perspective to deal with the market adjustment. In terms of specific strategies, the second quarter is relatively optimistic about sectors that benefit from a stable growth tone, as well as low-value targets with opportunities for reversal of difficulties; in addition, industries that are still in a high boom cycle but are suppressed by short-term factors still have medium- and long-term investment value after adjustment.

China Merchants Fund: Looking to the future, we believe that the current investment in the A-share market will place more emphasis on certainty. At present, the market is not short of opportunities: under the period of economic transition, the dependence on traditional growth sectors in the short term has increased, and the tail risk of the real estate and platform economy has decreased; the dual control of supply side and energy consumption has increased the return on assets of companies with stable cash flow. At present, the A-share market, under the combination of economic goals not relaxing + dynamic clearance, the market expects future policies to be further enhanced, and the focus of the current market for policy expectations lies in the follow-up "confidence recovery" field, including areas where policies are potentially supported, such as infrastructure and real estate to stabilize demand related industrial chains (banks, real estate, building materials, construction, etc.). In addition, in the context of global inflation, in the medium term, we still choose the inflation chain, especially the types with high correlation with global inflation and the supply gap that cannot be repaired in the short term, such as upstream resources and food. In summary, we are optimistic about low valuations, performance and performance-definite growth, and marginal changes in the medium to long term.

Golden Eagle Fund: In terms of industry allocation, short-term and medium-term, stable growth can focus on the post-cycle of the real estate chain, and the technology sector can participate in the boom track from the perspective of PEG. Under the pressure of the epidemic and the peripheral economy, it is expected that the stable growth policy will continue to exert force. Before the follow-up policy is implemented and effective, it can still participate at a low price. In addition to real estate and banks, the main line of stable growth can focus on the post-cycle varieties of real estate chain on the left side. At the same time, bottom-up, focus on the technology sector measured from a PEG perspective and cost-effective. After experiencing a sharp impact on the capital and emotional side, we will focus on the high-prosperity sector or boom improvement direction shown in the first quarterly report with sustained high performance and better cost performance.

Short-term caution for the new energy vehicle sector

In addition, in terms of industry tracks, today's new energy-related sectors are also adjusted in the front, does the continuous adjustment mean that this track has been "not fragrant"?

Yan Anqi, fund manager of NORD Fund, analyzed, "The recent decline in the new energy vehicle sector is large, mainly related to the escalation of the epidemic in time and space. Since March, the domestic epidemic has begun to affect the supply of raw materials for individual new energy vehicles, and due to epidemic prevention measures, offline purchase and delivery have also had a certain impact. By mid-March, the epidemic in Jilin had led to the shutdown of local OEMs. In late March, local OEMs in Shanghai also stopped production due to the epidemic. Since the static management of Shanghai has not been lifted, during the trading days after the Qingming Festival, the market has made expected adjustments to the affected OEMs and related industrial chains, and the market has also reacted significantly. ”

"On Saturday, the suspension announcement of an oem manufacturer in a non-above-mentioned area made the market react, and the complex and long supply system of new energy vehicles cannot allow the participants to be alone and unaffected. The degree of automation of the depot is relatively high, and in the case of sufficient raw materials, it is possible to make up for the 'lost' production in the follow-up operation, but this depends on the time of the subsequent epidemic relief and local prevention and control measures. We believe that the supply and demand sides of the industry will be rebalanced after the epidemic, market sentiment will be calmed, and if the valuation level reaches a low level, there may be a repair. At the same time, with reference to Shenzhen's subsidy measures after the epidemic, there can also be certain expectations on the policy side. Yan Anqi said.

Guohai Franklin Fund believes that "we are optimistic about new energy vehicles for a long time, but the industry itself has a certain cyclicality, the current may be at the peak of a short cycle, due to the weak terminal consumption, upstream resource price increases weaken the profits of other links, the market for new energy vehicles Profit and valuation expectations have been reduced, we are cautious about the short-term new energy vehicle industry chain, relatively optimistic about wind photovoltaic manufacturing and green power operations." The consumer industry as a whole has been greatly affected by the epidemic, and the valuation of the liquor sector in the early stage is higher, and it has fallen significantly in this round of adjustment, and there may still be some room for decline. ”

China Merchants Fund pointed out that "the new energy, nonferrous metals, electronics and automotive sectors fell sharply today. East China and South China, where China's economy is most active, have entered a state of sealing and control, and Kunshan and Taicang, where the electronics and automobile technology manufacturing industries are intensive, have implemented global static management, and the industrial chain is facing supply chain risks. Therefore, today's sharp adjustment of the market, especially the adjustment of manufacturing sectors such as new energy, more from the scattered spread of the national epidemic and strict control measures, investors are worried about the growth of corporate earnings in the second quarter and the stability of supply chain orders. ”

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