Recently, Pakistan's political situation has been turbulent, and the opposition coalition camp has launched a motion of no confidence in the current Prime Minister Imran Khan. Imran Khan's government was in crisis, and he himself became the first prime minister in Pakistan's history to be ousted from the National Assembly. Why did Imran Khan, who showed himself as "focusing on the construction of people's livelihood", come to this step? In this regard, the Observer Network interviewed Liu Zongyi, secretary general of the China and South Asia Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies.
Observer Network: Imran Khan was sworn in as prime minister on August 18, 2018. Since the 2018 general election, opposition parties in Pakistan have often used electoral fraud as an excuse to demand imran Khan's removal. Recently, these opposition forces have become more active. In this regard, Imran Khan has repeatedly said that foreign forces have used the opposition to create momentum and intend to intervene in Pakistan's political situation. In your opinion, why are these oppositions particularly active at the moment?
Liu Zongyi: In fact, the domestic political struggle in Pakistan has always been very fierce. At that time, Imran Khan also came to power as an opposition force, with the support of the military. After he came to power, he pursued the Nawaz Sharif family and opposition forces such as the Muslim League (Sharif faction), the Bhutto family and the Pakistan People's Party in the name of anti-corruption. This has led to the unity of these opposition forces long ago.
After Imran Khan came to power, he shifted the focus of economic development to the field of people's livelihood, mainly for the sake of canvassing votes. In the past two years, Pakistan has made some progress in the field of people's livelihood, especially with the support of China. But overall, Pakistan's economic situation after Imran Khan came to power was not too good, and even more so after the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the epidemic, some projects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor have been greatly affected, although they are still advancing.
In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan's economic policy has been hampered by national constraints. Because the economy of Pakistan is a capitalist economy that grew up on the basis of the feudal large estate system, and the Navaz Sharif family and the Bhutto family are the representatives of the big landlords and big capitalists. The policy of developing people's livelihood after Imran Khan came to power was not in line with this socio-economic structure, so naturally encountered various constraints.
On the evening of April 8, local time, Imran Khan spoke on television, video screenshot
Now, Pakistan's domestic inflation level is relatively high, and recently caught up with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, oil, gas and commodity prices rose rapidly, fluctuating a lot, stimulated by these factors, many ordinary people are very difficult to live. So the opposition took the opportunity to overthrow Imran Khan.
In fact, since the end of last year, Imran Khan's approval rating has dropped significantly. Because at the end of last year, the JEM party he represented lost the elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, their stronghold.
Then it also lost elections in areas under the direct military's jurisdiction. This suggests that the military may not support him anymore. It is important to note that the military plays a key role in Pakistani politics.
Another sign is imran Khan's visit to Russia some time ago, before Putin took a special military operation in Ukraine, and then met putin, just a few hours after putin took action. In fact, many people in Pakistan before Imran Khan's visit at that time were against this. A few days ago, Pakistan's army chief of staff, Bajewa, gave a speech in which he described Russia as "invading" Ukraine when talking about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, so the position of the military and Imran Khan is quite different.
Observer Network: What role does imran Khan's "foreign powers" play in this no-confidence motion? Earlier, Imran Khan also cited a letter as evidence, in which a U.S. official mentioned that if Imran Khan stepped down, U.S.-Pakistan relations would improve.
Liu Zongyi: "Foreign forces" are also a supporting factor, but not the main factor. The United States does not like Imran Khan because he is more anti-American in his posture and is clearly inclined to China. Imran Khan's criticism of the United States on Afghanistan has also been fierce.
Of course, he openly said that he hoped to maintain neutrality between China and the United States and act as a bridge between China and the United States, but his words and deeds were clearly inclined to China. The military, on the other hand, prefers to remain neutral between China and the United States, so they have differences on the issue. Without the support of the military, Imran Khan was unable to retain his position as prime minister.
Screenshot of the report of Pakistan's Tribune Express
Observer Network: You mentioned earlier that the military's attitude tends to be neutral. According to previous historical experience, despite the continuous change of regime in Pakistan, China-Pakistan relations are rock solid. What impact will this political change have on China-Pakistan relations? According to the usual understanding, since India's expansion ambitions are always there, the all-weather relationship between China and Pakistan will not change. Do you agree with this view?
Liu Zongyi: China-Pakistan relations are strong, India is one factor, and another factor is that we have been implementing the policy of non-interference in Pakistan's internal affairs. Even if Imran Khan steps down, the foundations of China-Pakistan relations will not be touched. The rotation of government may lead to policy changes, especially economic policy changes, and there may also be some policy adjustments on the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. But overall, China has also worked well with other political factions in Pakistan, so the general trend will not change.
Observer Network: In addition to Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and other countries have also fallen into a certain political and economic crisis. And the Indian media watched the fire from the other side. The Hindustan Times reporter also wrote an article accusing that the "Belt and Road" is the root cause of pushing Pakistan, Slovakia and Nepal into a chain crisis. Where is the absurdity of this view?
Liu Zongyi: This is an opportunity to smear China. In fact, the debt crisis of these countries, especially Pakistan and Sri Lanka, has a lot to do with their own economic systems, which is the underlying reason.
In Pakistan, for example, its economy is built on a feudal large estate system, and then superimposed on the capitalist system, and its domestic large landlords and big capitalists evade taxes and evade taxes very seriously. So Pakistan has always been in a fiscal deficit, and the country's governance capacity is too weak to collect taxes. Most of the members of Congress are big landlords, and if you want them to discuss changing the tax code and making them pay taxes, it is tantamount to conspiring with tigers.
Most of the wealthy in the cities do not pay taxes, and they do not have money in Pakistan, most of it in the banks of the Middle East or European countries, and rarely invest in the country.
In addition to tax issues, its import and export trade has long been in deficit, largely because pakistan's economy has de-industrialized prematurely. Therefore, its import and export trade has always been in a state of excess. The wealthy import large quantities of consumer goods, rather than production goods, which have a negative impact on the economy. So we will see that Pakistan's debt crisis is cyclical.
This is especially true of Sri Lanka, which has a relatively high PER CAPITA GDP in South Asia, but it is also a backward developing country. It implements a Western-style social welfare system, education, medical care, etc. are all state financial expenditures, and it does not have special advantages in export foreign exchange earning projects, while its tourism revenue and overseas labor service income have been sharply reduced in the past two years due to the impact of the epidemic.
Sri Lankan President Greets First Covid-19 Vaccine for China (Xinhua Photo, Colombo, March 31, 2021)
Sri Lanka's economic growth model is debt-financed. Especially after the LTTE rebellion, Sri Lanka under Mahinda Rajapaksa borrowed heavily to boost infrastructure and economic development in the country. But China's debt is only about 9%, we do not account for the majority, the Western countries account for the majority.
The recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict has had a great impact on oil and gas prices, so contradictions have erupted at once. Because it needs a lot of imports of oil and gas to generate electricity, and it now has no foreign exchange.
And U.S. rate hikes have also had an impact on the economic crises in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Multiple factors superimpose, coupled with the fact that these countries are already weak, debt crises will erupt periodically. It just happens to be a flashpoint now, so it seems particularly serious.
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