#俄乌战争的走向如何 #
Text/Junjian
Since Putin ordered a special military operation, the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for 45 days, and it is difficult to say who won this large-scale conflict. However, some signs and trends have become more and more obvious.
The Russian military still has a firm grip on the ukrainian battlefield, but the Russian military's strategy has undergone a major adjustment. Since a large number of Russian troops have withdrawn from Kiev, Zelenskiy has also appeared in public, and even senior Western officials such as European Commission President von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borelli have also run to Kiev to brush up their presence, so it can be predicted that the Russian army should no longer consider invading Kiev, but turn eastward, ready to solve the remaining problems in eastern Ukraine.
in Zelenskiy
According to the objectives set in the second phase of the Russian special military operation, Donbass will be the "top priority" of the Russian military's next step. At present, the encirclement of Mariupol has been repeatedly compressed, and the Russian army is already determined to win the city. But the U.S. side believes that the larger goal of the Russian army is to lay down the entire Donbass region. This is very crucial, one is to destroy the remaining strength of the Ukrainian army and completely disarm Ukraine; the other is to protect the "Luhansk Republic" and the "Donetsk Republic", which is also one of the core demands of Russia's special military operation.
However, it will not be easy to achieve this goal, and Russia currently faces several important problems.
The first is that the special military operation has been in place for a month and a half, and Russia has invested a lot of manpower and material resources in this military operation, which not only considers Russia's military strength, but also tests Russia's family foundation. Russia has long been subject to Western sanctions, the economy is not good, although Ukraine is weaker than Russia, but Ukraine has dozens of Western countries to provide assistance. Therefore, the long military operation has been seriously depleted, and the time left for Russia may be running out.
(Moscow)
The second is the further escalation of the western countries' suppression sanctions, if the previous sanctions have not shaken the fundamentals of Russia, then the United States may come to the real future. After hoarding a wave of Russian oil, Biden signed an order on April 8 local time that the United States would stop importing Russian oil and suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. Under pressure from the United States, European countries have also begun to point sanctions at Russia's energy sector, and energy revenue is a key source of finance for Russia, and if Russia's energy is not profitable, then the Russian economy will be worse.
The third is that Ukraine is getting more military aid, and the US Congress has passed the "Lend-Lease Act" to speed up the speed of military aid to Ukraine, which shows that the United States is ready for long-term military support to Ukraine, and the United States wants to lengthen the front line and achieve the purpose of "dragging down" Russia. Moreover, the United States has threatened to give the Ukrainian army more weapons than the Russian army has equipped, and NATO has even begun to provide tanks and heavy anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine, which has led to greater resistance to Russian military operations.
(The United States will provide the Patriot to Slovakia, supposedly in exchange for Slovakia's S-300 anti-aircraft missile system to Ukraine.)
The fourth is that Ukraine is seeking to fight back, and as the situation changes, Kiev suddenly changes its negotiating attitude, insisting that the Ukrainian constitution stipulates to join NATO, and the EU has begun to paint a pie for Ukraine, creating the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU. Coupled with the fact that Ukraine received more military reinforcements, the Ukrainian army was no longer simply trapped, but began to seek counterattack.
Fifth, the situation in Donbass is not optimistic, because the main force of the Ukrainian army is also here, and the United States believes that soon a wave of large-scale decisive battles will break out between the Russian and Ukrainian armies, and western countries are preparing for this possible fierce battle. After the "Bucha Incident", there was another attack on the railway station in the Donbass region, which caused a large number of casualties, Kiev has been charged with Russia, Biden has also publicly accused Russia of the railway station incident, it is estimated that Western public opinion will be one-sided and create momentum, which will put public pressure on the Actions of the Russian Army in Donbass.
(Attack on the Donbass train station)
It can be seen that even if the Russian army shrinks the scope and focuses on attacking The Donbass, it will face many problems. Therefore, it is not yet certain that Russia will be able to achieve a final victory. The United States had speculated that Russia hoped to declare victory before Victory Day on May 9, which would necessitate ending the Donbass War in early May, and U.S. intelligence agencies speculated that Ukraine was ushering in the spring, and melting ice and snow would not be conducive to marching, which was one of the problems that Russia needed to face.
Of course, the fact that Russia faces difficulties does not mean that Russia cannot achieve its goals. No matter how much Ukraine has the support of Western countries, it cannot change the fact that the "Luhansk Republic" and the "Donetsk Republic" have been out of control, and now in eastern Ukraine, these two "republics" are actually fighting side by side with Russia, so the Russian army's action is much less resistance, and even in Mariupol, the Donetsk armed forces are still an important team, participating in the encirclement and suppression of the "Azov battalion". So the fact that at the moment, at least Russia has achieved the creation of a new buffer zone in the border area, may be something that Ukraine cannot change.
(Donbass people celebrate Russian recognition)
Taking 10,000 steps back, even if Russia finally announces its own withdrawal, the Ukrainian army will inevitably suffer heavy losses and it will be difficult to launch a large-scale attack on Donbass. And if the Ukrainian army still has to move in the future, Russia can still send troops in name, so Russia is at least sure to get what it wants. If the situation is more optimistic, Russia may even control the coast of the Sea of Azov for a long time, including Kherson Oblast, which could be locked down by Russia for a long time.
Therefore, Ukraine can certainly not be the winner of this conflict, even if Ukraine itself declares that it has won the "victory", it will not help.
From a broader perspective, the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also greatly shaken the European region, and the refugee crisis and the conflict crisis have impacted the security and stability of Europe. An energy crisis has also erupted as a result of sanctions imposed on Russia by European countries. Europe is now in turmoil and infighting, and the United States has taken the opportunity to tighten its grip on Europe. Even recently, Finland and Sweden in Northern Europe have begun to see voices to join NATO, which is an expansion of NATO from the other direction. If Finland and Sweden join NATO, the United States will reap another wave of geostrategic dividends.
(NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg)
Therefore, with regard to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we can draw the following conclusion --
First of all, the biggest winner is actually the United States, the United States has achieved at least three major purposes, the first is that the "military-industrial complex" has made a lot of money, which is what the United States wants most, the War Machine of the United States, once again "generated income"; the second is that the United States has achieved hegemonic expansion, strengthened its control over Europe, and weakened Europe's independent ability; the third is that with the help of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has consumed Russia, which is also one of the key purposes of the United States.
Secondly, although Russia has paid a lot, it is also expected to achieve its own goals, Russia has used actions to express to the United States the position of "not hesitating to fight a war", the United States must be cautious about the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO in the future, if Ukraine does not join NATO, then Russia's geostrategic interests can be guaranteed; of course, even if Ukraine wants to join NATO, Russia will inevitably strengthen its support for the "Luhansk Republic" and the "Donetsk Republic". This will ensure that Russia does not fall completely passive in the geopolitical game. Moreover, Russia has achieved full control over the Black Sea and Azov sea areas by laying out Crimea and Donbas, which is also an acceptable result.
in Mariupol
Finally, ukraine and Europe, obviously neither Ukraine nor European countries have gained much. Although Ukraine stressed that it still wants to join NATO, at present, this possibility is still very small. At the same time, Ukraine is facing the loss of heavy industrial bases such as Donbass, and the grain-producing Kherson and steel-producing Mariupol are now under the control of Kiev. In the worst case, Ukraine could lose most of its coastline as a result of the conflict.
It is also sad that refugee and energy problems are now plaguing European countries, and European countries must continue to cooperate with US sanctions, which is tantamount to hurting each other. It can be said that in the whole process of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European countries are basically paying for the consequences.
In the final analysis, the Ukraine crisis is the result of the united states' single-handed operation, Russia has to defend its own interests, and it is Europe and Ukraine that are paying for the consequences.