This article is only for personal learning experience, and there is no such thing as any form of stock or fund operation advice.
The stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing.
This article is the 108th investment note.
In today's article, I want to talk about the arrangement of active funds in the real market.
There are mainly a few things:
(1) Dong Chengfei resigned, and the position of Xingquan Trend changed greatly, and the position would be cleared in due course and no longer held.
(2) After Zhang Kun's "small and medium-cap" is changed to "high-quality selection", the overlap with the "blue-chip selection" position is very high, and it can be tracked later. At the beginning of March this year, the large purchase limit was released from 10,000 to 50,000, indicating a buying range.
(3) After long-term follow-up and consideration, it was decided to take Zhu Shaoxing and Zhang Kun as the mainstay, supplemented by Xie Zhiyu, and adopt different configurations under different circumstances. This is purely personal preference, and there is no distinction between good and bad.
The above points will be discussed later.
1 Transactions
No trading this week.
2 Active Fund 21 Annual Report & Position Plan
Recently, the 21-year annual report of the active fund was released, and the old rules focused on two parts: 1 is the strategy and outlook of the fund manager; 2 is the latest position. Although the position disclosed in the annual report is at the end of 21 years, it also has certain reference value. Wait for the announcement of the position in the first quarter of this month, and then look at the changes.
(1) Zhu Shaoxing, Rich Country Tianhui
Excerpt from the strategy section:
After the differentiation of the market in 2021, in addition to the high-boom new energy sector, the overall valuation of the market has declined. The valuations of some core asset companies that have been tested for more than a year are already relatively reasonable. The overall valuation of small and mid-cap assets has not increased much in the past year, and the environment for flipping stones and stock selection is still friendly. In addition to selecting high-quality companies, valuation considerations have become even more important.
Zhu Shaoxing's shareholding is relatively dispersed, compared with Zhang Kun's concentrated holding of more than 10 stocks (net value accounts for more than 1%), Zhu will hold about 30 stocks. And Zhu's definition of "good company" is clearly broader. The advantage of this is that when the overall valuation of the market is low, Zhu will have more options for rebalancing and choose a lower valuation in a good company; at the same time, the style will be more balanced, and the market differentiation will have less impact on it.
In contrast, Zhang Kun's room for adjusting the position is smaller, and he is more market-oriented. For example, his liquor (Maotai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, Yanghe) and Hong Kong stocks (Tencent, Meituan, Hong Kong Stock Exchange) have almost eaten all the declines in the past year.
From the perspective of yield, Zhu Shaoxing is a positive return of 0.62% in 2021, Zhang Kun is a negative return of -9.9% (blue-chip selection), -13.5% (small and medium-cap, that is, high-quality selection).
Therefore, according to the characteristics of the two, I think it is possible to make a targeted combination configuration. Simply put, Zhu's defensive attributes are stronger, and it is safer to choose Zhu when the market is vague and chaotic, it is difficult to judge the future trend, and the capital preference is changeable. Zhang's offensive attributes are stronger, and when the market valuation is at an absolute low, the elasticity will be higher, but the single style will bring higher potential risks.
In general, the funds of the two gods are like two weapons, which can be defended and attacked, and as for when to retreat and when to attack, it is necessary to flexibly choose and use them according to market conditions.
(2) Zhang Kun, Premium Selection & Blue Chip Selection
The Fund has slightly increased its equity positions in 2021 and made structural adjustments. In terms of industries, the allocation of industries such as finance and technology has been increased, and the allocation of industries such as medicine and home appliances has been reduced; in terms of individual stocks, the proportion of individual stocks with distinctive business models, long-term logic and reasonable valuation levels has been increased.
When we study companies, free cash flow is always one of our top financial metrics. Although there will be fluctuations between years, it is not difficult to tell whether a company can generate sufficient free cash flow for shareholders in the 5-10 year dimension. Further from the bottom level, how much a company produces products that are desired by its customers, whether it has an excellent business model, and whether it has a moat to maintain a good competitive pattern over a long period of time are all important determinants of how revenue can be smoothly converted into net profit and then into free cash flow.
The strategies written by Kun Kun in recent times are worth reading carefully, this time he elaborated on the transformation of revenue, net profit, and free cash flow, and he is interested in finding the original text.
The first thing is that Kun Kun's "small and medium-cap" was changed to "Quality Select" in September 2021, and all A shares were previously held, with A shares accounting for 60% at the end of 21 and Hong Kong stocks accounting for 35%. After the fund was stocked in Hong Kong, its positions were basically the same as those of "Blue Chip Selection", and if you want to buy it later, you can choose one of them.
Another thing is that in March this year, both high-quality selection and blue-chip selection released large subscriptions from 10,000 to 50,000. Looking back at the large purchase restrictions and liberalization in the past two years: in January 21, it was reduced from 100,000 to 5,000; in February, it was reduced to 2,000. In January 2022, it opened to 10,000; in March, it opened to 50,000.
I have to say that E Fangda and Zhang Kun really have a conscience, overcome the natural impulse of asset scale to become bigger, and give up short-term management fees for long-term reputation and interests. Moreover, every time the purchase restriction and liberalization, basically step on the rhythm of the market, clearly tell everyone when it is expensive and when it is cheap, and the basic people look at the signal to buy and sell.
More conservative people like us want to wait until it is released to 100,000 again, and then it is a good time to enter.
(3) Xie Zhiyu, Xingquan Herun
The central government has set a target of 5.5% for annual GDP growth, striving to maintain a stable and healthy economic environment. In recent years, the product strength and competitiveness of Chinese enterprises have gradually increased, the status of the industrial chain has been continuously improved, and excellent companies have good long-term investment value. In the past 22 years, we will continue to select individual stocks, tap the long-term growth value of the company, strive to balance the company's long-term development space and short-term valuation, and constantly look for excellent companies with good investment cost performance.
To tell the truth, compared with the stocks that Zhu Shaoxing and Zhang Kun focus on, I can't understand most of Xie Zhiyu's holdings. Maybe it's Xie's different understanding of good companies, maybe it's the circle of competence problem, maybe it's the style is inconsistent.
However, Xie's historical performance has nothing to say, buying an active fund is to trust the fund manager. It doesn't matter if you don't fully understand the position, it also has the advantage of being able to provide many additional targets, diversify risk, hedging style.
Therefore, in the future, the role of Xingquan Herun will be positioned as an auxiliary cooperation in the active fund, and the large position will be given to Zhu Shaoxing and Zhang Kun, leaving a small part to Xie Zhiyu, hoping that they will cooperate well and create income.
(4) Xingquan trend
In the first half of the year, the portfolio gradually reduced those stocks that reached the target price, and shifted the allocation direction to industries and stocks that were more in line with the general direction. After four quarters, the portfolio has completed structural adjustments.
It should be noted that the 2022 meeting will be a year of further structural differentiation, which will be more obvious than in 2021. This will also be reflected in the fund's returns. Getting the structure right is the most important thing to invest in 2022.
It is a pity that Dong Chengfei left Xingquan, and the majority of the people have one less public fund manager who can be trusted. As I said before, we should cherish excellent public fund managers, who provide good products with low thresholds, and there is no such shop in this village.
The new managers of Xingquan Trend are Tong Lan and Dong Li, no matter who is in charge, it can be seen that the stocks have changed a lot, and the strategy part of the annual report also looks different. More importantly, we started with Dong Chengfei's excellent historical record, and now this is obviously no longer there.
Therefore, for the Xingquan trend, I will clear the position in time and will not buy in the future.
3 Market conditions
Due to the Qingming holiday, there are only two trading days so far this week, and the market has not changed much due to volatility, which has been skipped.
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Risk Warning: This article is for communication purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you should bear the profit and loss.