The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for a full month. The situation in Russia and Ukraine has not yet ushered in an inflection point, but the world pattern has once again ushered in a major reshuffle. In fact, the political game outside the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield was more intense than the Russo-Ukrainian war itself. Whatever the outcome of the war, Russia and Ukraine are not the biggest winners or losers, but the driving force behind the war.
On the surface, the Russo-Ukrainian war was caused by The Russo-Ukrainian contradictions. This is Russia's counterattack to protect national strategic security and a continuation of the contradictions after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But in fact, the essence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the continuation of the Russian-European conflict and the Cold War. This is a regional conflict triggered by the United States manipulating the situation in Eurasia.
First, Eastern Europe has returned to a cold war confrontational situation
The Russo-Ukrainian War awakened countries that still harbored illusions. Before the outbreak of the war, Britain, Germany and other countries carried out large-scale arms reductions, thinking that relying on the United States could achieve freedom of national defense, but the attitude of the United States toward Ukraine showed that the United States would never enter the war unless the war seriously affected the interests of the United States. Recognizing this, Germany, which had strong resistance to the expansion of its army, began to rearm. The share of military expenditure increased from 1.5 percent to 2 percent. It received a one-time grant of up to 150 billion euros and announced the purchase of 35 F-35 fighter jets.
Second, the United States has a stronger grip on Europe
After two world wars and the Cold War, the United States completely pocketed Europe into its own pockets, but as Russia's sphere of influence shrank, some European countries that posed a weakening threat to Eastern Europe decided it was time to get out of U.S. control. The countries represented by France and Germany plan to form a rapid mobile force independent of NATO. Another manifestation is that they will not join the U.S.-led F-35 program. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Germany was the first to abandon the plan and eventually agreed to cooperate with the United States.
Third, the level of global armaments has increased, and the risk of war has risen
After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, a large number of neutral countries took action. Switzerland, Luxembourg, Austria and other countries have followed suit. Sweden also announced joint military exercises, claiming to raise the proportion of military spending to 2.2 percent as soon as possible, a rarity in the world. Even Japan, thousands of miles apart, is actively participating in the situation in Russia and Ukraine, trying to get a piece of the world reshuffle.
Fourth, the cost of starting a war has increased
In the age of the Internet, which is broadcast live throughout the country, the Russo-Ukrainian war has attracted more attention than any previous war. People around the world can speak their minds on the Internet without leaving their homes. A small guide triggered a public opinion war that swept the whole network. Amid strong anti-war cries, Ukraine received hundreds of millions of dollars in donations and aid, and more than 30,000 foreigners came to Ukraine to fight. This had never happened in previous wars.
Correspondingly, Russia, as the initiator of the war, is under tremendous pressure from public opinion and has also suffered comprehensive sanctions on a global scale, paying a price far higher than any previous war.
V. The world industrial chain will be reconstructed
In the more than 30 years since the end of the Cold War, the world economic pattern and industrial chain have gradually taken shape: Western countries have mastered high-end core technologies, relying on core output technologies and high-tech products to take away Russia is one of the world's most important raw material exporters, China is the world's largest OEM, and has also made considerable profits in the global economic industry chain, growing into the world's second largest economy. body.
After the war, The West began to reflect on the sustainability of this model, and the countries represented by Germany were also thinking about a major question: Can the economy maintain normal operation after severing cooperation with Russia and China?
The results confirm that the consequences of economic decoupling are about 2%-3% of GDP. That's a pretty scary number.
Whoever wins or loses, the Russo-Ukrainian war will have a huge impact on the world order. One obvious conclusion is that after the war, it is impossible for any country to return to its pre-war state.