Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said on April 1 that he would try to hold a video conference with Chinese leaders on April 8, where the two sides would exchange views on the issue of the war in Ukraine. At present, the Philippines is worried that a possible escalation of the war will spread unrest to Asia and even evolve into a war in the Taiwan Strait.
Duterte said that if the escalation of the war is inevitable, then it is difficult for the Philippines to guarantee that it will not be affected. Philippine Rappler news website reported on the 2nd, Duterte said when talking about the chaos in Europe that the Philippines is currently unwilling to be involved in a major power war, but because the Philippines is a military ally of the United States, once the war expands the Philippines may have trouble. Duterte said: "If the war in Ukraine turns into a showdown between great powers, China cannot sit idly by, the problem is that once the war expands, it will be difficult for the Philippines to stand alone, because there are US troops in the Philippines." ”
Duterte's concerns are not unique, as ASEAN countries are nervously following the development of the Russo-Ukrainian war and fear that the unrest could spill over into Asia. In the worst case scenario, Both China and the United States may be involved in war, and Duterte called for a Dialogue between China and the Philippines in a timely manner to achieve enhanced communication and risk management in the region.
The United States is trying to strengthen the U.S.-Philippines defense relationship
During Duterte's administration, Duterte's rise to prominence through the war on drugs allowed the Duterte administration to suppress pro-American factions at home, but the current Duterte term is coming to an end, and the future direction of Philippine politics will become a mystery.
At this critical point in time, the United States and the Philippines held a large joint military exercise at the end of March, which involved 3,800 Filipino soldiers and 5,100 American soldiers. Duterte worries that after he leaves office, there will be instability in Sino-Philippine relations.
Alexander, a professor at the Daniel Inouye Center for Asia-Pacific Security Studies in Hawaii, said the United States has always cherished its defense partnership with the Philippines, a swing country in the Indo-Pacific region that could swing to the United States after Duterte leaves office. The United States hopes to strengthen its defense cooperation with the Philippines through joint military exercises, which are not only large in scale, but also span the entire island of Luzon. The United States hopes to make the Philippines feel that the United States is willing to fight for the interests of the Philippines, and the United States is willing to safeguard the interests of the Philippines in the South China Sea from loss. However, the discerning people know that the Current United States does not have enough capital to invest in great power competition in the Indo-Pacific region, and the United States hopes that the Philippines will have the above "illusion" and firmly side with the United States in the future.
Not only the Philippines, but also ASEAN countries are worried
The U.S. tricks on the Ukraine issue have made it clear to the world once again the essence of U.S. hegemony —to allow adversaries to enter into attrition, thereby highlighting the relative advantages of the United States. However, at present, the United States continues to intervene in the Indo-Pacific pattern with the US-Philippines joint military exercise as a starting point, which makes neighboring countries feel uneasy.
At present, the foreign ministers of Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Myanmar have visited China, and although the goals of the four countries in China are different, the Issue of Ukraine may be something that all parties will talk about. According to the information released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the mainland, China has held talks with the Indonesian foreign minister, and the two sides have exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine in addition to bilateral cooperation and negotiations on free trade and cooperation between China and ASEAN.
Thailand's position is very clear, although there is also a military cooperative relationship between Thailand and the United States, but after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Thailand took a neutral position, condemning the outbreak of the war but refusing to condemn Russia. Thailand's position is almost universal within ASEAN countries, and since the Russo-Ukrainian war is not yet visible, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte wants to hold a video conference with Chinese leaders. In terms of position, Duterte stressed that the Philippines will not be partial to any side, the Philippines does not want the war to enter its own country, Duterte also promised that he will not let the Philippine Armed Forces and soldiers get involved in the war.
The foreign ministers of four ASEAN countries visited China, and at the same time, Duterte issued a request for dialogue to China, which made many US media naturally think of the previous "U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit", which has been postponed indefinitely because "many leaders of ASEAN countries are inconvenient to attend the meeting within the established time".
The US Foreign Policy magazine pointed out that compared with Biden's weak performance in Indo-Pacific diplomacy, the initiative of ASEAN countries to visit China shows that China has a far stronger appeal than the United States, and China can accomplish what the Biden administration cannot do.
At present, high-level U.S. officials have not given up their attempts to break up relations between China and ASEAN, and joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines continue, and Derek, a senior policy adviser to U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, said the United States will "coordinate the Philippines' response to China's challenge."
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Taiwan Strait crisis?
At present, the main logic of ASEAN countries' fear that the Taiwan Strait crisis will evolve into a war in the Taiwan Strait is that after Russia is dragged down by the war, the gradual increase of us investment in the Indo-Pacific region may cause the two countries to intensify the differences between China and the United States on a series of regional interests. In particular, the Biden administration's bottomless trend in political manipulation has become more and more obvious, which has made both countries and abroad worry that the biggest powder keg between China and the United States, the Taiwan Strait problem, will turn into war because of the US cross-line manipulation.
In the final analysis, at present, ASEAN countries no longer regard the United States as the ballast stone of regional stability, but the increased presence of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region has made ASEAN countries feel uneasy and dangerous. The lie that "the mainland threatens Taiwan" in the context of the US media does not make sense, Taiwan is a part of China, and the Taiwan issue belongs to China's internal affairs. An eloquent article published on the Dagong Net on 3 July pointed out that the Taiwan issue is not an object that a major country outside the region can manipulate, but a struggle between separatism and anti-separatism, and that the United States' practice of provoking confrontation and finding excuses for "Taiwan independence" is the real threat to Taiwan's future. Taiwan's future lies in the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and the eventual steady realization of national reunification, and Chinese on both sides of the strait should make joint efforts to seek the early realization of national reunification.
At present, the myth of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region is no longer there, and the trend of anti-interference and anti-political manipulation in the region is rising, just as the Philippines and other countries are concerned, no country around the South China Sea will collude with the United States.