【Article/Observer Network Columnist HaiWenna】
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been going on for more than a month. Today, more than three million refugees have fled Ukraine and entered the European Union. The disastrous consequences of the war for Germany were already evident.
Since 22 February, the PPI of the price index of production in the industrial sector has risen by 25.9 per cent, energy prices have increased by a staggering 68 per cent during this period and intermediate commodity prices by 21 per cent, according to the German Statistical Office. In the consumer sector, the consumer price index CPI rose by 22.5%, well above inflation.
In the shops around my home, the prices of individual commodities such as wheat and edible oil increased by as much as 30 percent. A year ago, the price of German E10 gasoline was around 1.5 euros, and now it has reached 2.5 euros. These changes are something that ordinary Germans can experience in their own lives.
The chart shows the changes in prices of various consumer goods since February 20 shown by the German Ministry of Statistics (top), and the increase in fuel costs since January 21 (bottom).
In fact, before the war, the German public was not particularly concerned about the geopolitical differences between Russia and Ukraine, and it was only during the 2014 Crimean referendum that the German people had some negative views of Russia (at that time, I was still in middle school).
To this day, ordinary Germans still struggle to understand what makes Russia have to use military means to resolve their differences with Ukraine. The current mainstream narrative of German society places responsibility for the war entirely on russia, arguing that the root causes of the war come from the hatred of democracy and geopolitical expansion ambitions by the Russian government, especially Putin himself. The current Response of the German Government can be understood as coordinating the international community, on the one hand, to support Ukraine to a limited extent in its war resistance, and on the other hand, to force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine through sanctions and pressure.
Because European countries have suffered real war damage, many European politicians have frequently called out to China, hoping that China can mediate between Russia and Ukraine to reach an armistice as soon as possible. There are also shrill voices from them warning that China must not help Russia circumvent Western sanctions, or China will face serious consequences.
I myself have interacted with Chinese netizens on the Internet, and I understand China's position of remaining neutral on this issue and not participating in sanctions against Russia.
In fact, in the past few years, European Western countries have frequently and proactively offended China's internal affairs and accused China of state governance with false news. These actions have drained the trust and goodwill of the Chinese government and people for European countries. This is the inevitable result of the long-standing narcissism of European political elites about European values and their contempt for the world's diverse civilizations.
Unfortunately, the Atlanticists in German politics don't think so. Atlanticists, those who advocate a deep tying of Europe's future to the United States, those who do not support European independence, have long trumpeted that China and Russia are a great threat to Europe.
Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict helps to confirm their political theory that Russia and China are "authoritarian and hegemonic countries". They followed the trend and constantly publicized to the people their "correct" predictions about the international situation in order to reap more electoral dividends and provide good conditions for achieving their more ambitious political ambitions.
The latter two of the three parties currently making up the German government, the SPD, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party FDP, are particularly Atlanticist. The Atlanticists have their own set of political logic and firmly believe that they are on the right path.
I would like to use the Greens as an example to introduce their approach to governance, especially their diplomatic line. The German Greens achieved their best results in history in last year's German general election. With 15% of the vote, the Greens, together with the SPD and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), formed the new German government.
The German Greens' governing philosophy is very clear in its election manifesto: the Greens closely link the development of Germany and Europe with the United States; build a carbon market and green industry investment environment integrated with the United States through the Transatlantic Green Agreement; accelerate Germany's energy transition and fully support a low-carbon, zero-carbon economy; and respond to the threat of China and Russia through democratic "democracy offensives" and cooperation Coordinate "value allies" such as the United States to firmly exert sufficient pressure on China on human rights and Taiwan.
The Greens, which used the words "dictatorship," "authoritarian," and "hegemonic" in their election manifestos to describe China, were the least friendly and deliberately provocative of Germany's major political parties.
The picture shows the German Green Party's declaration for the 2021 general election. China is seen by them as "systematic disregard for human rights, forcing other countries to depend on China," and "dividing Europe." In response to the power of the "authoritarian and authoritarian" systems of China and Russia, they called for "cooperation with all democratic countries and democratic groups and individuals" and launched a "democratic offensive." The Greens are also firmly pushing for the rejection of the existing EU-China investment treaty.
In terms of relations with Russia, the Greens strongly urge the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 oil and gas field. Since Russia pushed for a referendum in Crimea in 2014, they have been very active in advocating arming Ukraine against Russia.
At present, the situation between Russia and Europe is highly tense, and the two sides are essentially in a state of quasi-war. Under pressure, German Chancellor Schoelz has announced an increase of 100 billion euros to strengthen armaments and plans to raise military spending to more than 2 percent of GDP. The Greens can now very smoothly pursue their long-cherished wish to completely kick out Russian gas in Germany without bearing the blame of the people.
Many Chinese readers cannot understand the Green Party's unspractical, completely american excitement. But we only need to look at the trajectory of the rise of the Greens in recent years to know who the real traders behind the Greens are.
The German Greens received only 6.7 percent of the vote in 1998 and slowly grew to 8.9 percent in 2017. After the two parties in the United States sharply tightened their crackdown on China, the party's support in Germany rose rapidly, reaching a staggering 30% at its peak in 2021 (and later lost support due to various scandals caused by its leader Annalena Baerbock).
The United States has enormous influence over the direction of the media, academia, and folk sentiment in Germany. After discovering the potential value of the German Greens, the American elite, through its influence in various aspects of Germany, continued to create conditions conducive to the Greens' political status. For example, the mainstream German newspapers "Le Monde" and "Bild" controlled by American capital will attack the left party that is friendlier to Russia and China with great malice, smear the former Government of Merkel, which adheres to a pragmatic and dialogue line, but is particularly kind to the Green Party.
Contrary to the experience of the early members of the Green Party in their opposition to American hegemonism and the Cold War, a considerable number of Young Green Party members have received scholarships to study and do business in the United States and Britain. In round after round of being used, bought and instigated by the United States, the Greens have basically become vassals of American interests. In one major decision after another about the future and destiny of Germany, the demands of the United States have been implemented almost 100% of the green party's ideas.
German Green Party prime ministerial candidate Berberk. Image source: Visual China
The Greens currently have strong control over Germany's foreign policy and green transition. Conventional wisdom holds that Germany's major decisions are dominated by the Chancellery. But on international issues, several key sectors of Germany are controlled by pro-American groups. The Greens controlled the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy and Climate (the ministers were Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, respectively), while the equally pro-American LDP controlled the Ministry of Finance (the minister was its leader, Christian Lindner, who had a high position in the party but had a lot of unpleasant experiences with China).
This structure allows pro-American forces in German politics to influence Germany's bilateral relations with China to a considerable extent. And in the words and deeds of the Green Party's political elite, the people can easily feel that China is at the top of their list of countries they hate.
So what is the basis for the idea that the German Green Party, which is so unpritical and even highly questionable in its loyalty, attracts many German voters? In fact, a considerable number of Germans, especially young people, have little sympathy for the United States. Many people are very disgusted by the United States' military use around the world and have a very clear understanding of the fact that human rights violations are constantly occurring in the United States.
Especially after Trump was elected president of the United States, the populist and hegemonic side of American society was presented to Europeans in a more direct form, which made the national image of the United States seriously decline in the minds of Europeans. So what attracts the Greens to Germans is by no means their pro-American stance.
The Centripetal Force of the Greens comes from their advocacy on climate issues. As the German media, NGOs and academia frequently discuss climate change in German society, climate issues have become the number one concern for young people. As long as Chinese who have lived in Europe for a long time, they can probably feel the huge weight of this issue in European society.
During their opposition, the Greens lashed out at Merkel's ruling coalition for failing to do enough to reduce emissions and energy transitions at home, and deliberately installed a large number of "apocalyptic" narratives to encourage German teenagers to project resentment against Merkel's government.
Germans are now critical of the Greens' overly aggressive approach to migration and culture, but climate issues are too heavy in German society, and the Greens advocate mostly aggressive and aggressive promotion of renewable energy and carbon market mechanisms on this issue, far more than other political parties. As a result, the Greens' great advantage on climate issues obscures their controversy over other issues.
The second card held by the Greens is the human rights card. Because of Germany's special history, the population is extremely sensitive to human rights issues. Many Germans are afraid of being regarded as a Nazi remnant by the people of the world, and they must stand up for any rumors of "human rights violations" in the world at the first time to express their concern, forming a unique set of social psychology in which Germans "would rather blame the other side than make themselves appear cold-blooded".
Thus the human rights plaque, complemented by the distorted narrative of the German media on relevant international issues, can effectively carry out moral kidnapping of the German people and join the crusade against the "authoritarian regime". Integrating human rights, climate, and liberal ideas, the Greens became a typical active political force with Western liberal democracy as its ideology.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock discusses Germany's new national security strategy after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. She quoted human rights activist Desmond Tutu as a warning to the world's "authoritarian" and "authoritarian" regimes that to remain neutral in the face of injustice is to choose to side with the oppressors. In her opinion, China's "Belt and Road" plan, which has nothing to do with Germany's security strategy, has become one of the reasons why Germany's national security strategy needs to be changed.
Another reason Greens need to be taken seriously is their age structure. Germany's traditional big parties show a serious tendency to age. Merkel's Coalition party has an average age of over 60, while members of young pro-American parties such as the Greens and liberal democrats are less than 50 years old: they are ideologically active and more active and connected with the masses.
In the 2021 German general election, the vast majority of young people under the age of 34 voted for the Greens and the Liberal Democratic Party. Although they voted for the pro-American caucus primarily because of their climate and economic support policies, not their foreign policy. But because of the misleading nature of the human rights narrative itself, the parties' attitude towards China could easily induce the younger Generation in Germany to have a negative view of China.
The figure on the left shows the age structure of voters in the 2021 German general election. The pro-American groups FDP LDP and Greens are the most attractive to young voters. Philipp Amthor, a member of the German CDU Party born in 1992, was spat at by various Internet celebrities on social media for his old-fashioned appearance, which had a very negative impact on the CDU election.
The ideology of the German Greens currently has a certain universality and fashion sense in Europe. Many countries except Germany have similar parties, and their members are also very active in EU institutions. Their common features are the diplomatic emphasis on Atlanticism and the domestic emphasis on climate responsibility over interests at this stage.
Although we do not trust the Atlanticists and firmly reject them in the elections, the German people have chosen to put the future of the country at the helm of these people, and I can only respect this in the spirit of the Constitution.
Since they are closely linked to Germany's national interests with the United States, I hope that they will be able to win energy and business opportunities from the United States to profit the people of Germany and Europe.
If, in the next few years, the security situation in Europe continues to deteriorate and Europe's economy declines for a long time, Europe's climate action plan will be unsustainable, thus shaking the electoral base of these green climate elites. In the face of that outcome, perhaps more people will reflect on where our real interests lie and where our real path should be.
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