#俄乌战争 #
Author: Forget about the jianghu
During the Qingming Festival, the rain is pouring, and the pedestrians on the road want to break their souls. When is the war? Russia and Ukraine are expanding their armies one after another.
The Russo-Ukrainian war has been fought unconsciously for more than a month, and the two sides have been happily fighting on the frontal battlefield, and the negotiating table has claimed that there has been great progress, but the clear-eyed people know at a glance that this is nothing more than a false and vicious snake for outsiders on both sides. Russia and Ukraine have begun to recruit new soldiers at the same time as the strategic shift, the Russian army claims to recruit 135,000 troops, and the Ukrainian army is not willing to show weakness to mobilize 100,000 new soldiers.
At the same time, the Russian army announced the end of the first phase of the operation, and the Russian troops in Kiev and Chernihiv withdrew.
However, the intelligence of the US military insists that the Russian army's move is nothing more than "poor dagger view", and its real intention is to join the Russian army and the Militia armed forces in Mariupol north to attack and take the Donbass region on three sides, forming an effect of "it is better to break one finger than to hurt its ten fingers".
Looking back at the Russo-Ukrainian War, what are the key milestones? Predicting the future, where will the Russian and Ukrainian armies go?
How sincere is the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations?
First, the twists and turns of the Russo-Ukrainian War
The Russo-Ukrainian war can be described as "three twists and turns", going through two stages: an all-out offensive and a key offensive.
On February 24, 2022, the Russian army besieged Ukraine on three sides, and the Russo-Ukrainian War was in full swing:
In the southern battlefield, the Russian army successfully landed in the port city of Odessa; in the eastern battlefield, the Russian army crossed the border into the second largest city, Kharkov Oblast; in the northern battlefield, the Russian rocket raid on Kiev. At the same time, Russian Ka-52 and Mi-8 helicopters raided Gostomeri airport.
The strategic intention of the Russian army is very obvious: the three-sided attack blossoms everywhere, and the rapid slashing of the chaos forces the Ukrainian army to surrender.
However, after the Russian army "Cheng bit the golden three-plate axe" and slashed indiscriminately, it found that it was not the same thing at all. The underrated Modern Sparrow War of the Ukrainian Army fought a fierce battle, so that the tank steel torrent of the Russian army's 100,000 troops fell into a "embattled" total passivity.
The special forces also did not defend the airport, and were beaten by the "blitzkrieg" that the outside world was optimistic about.
Is the Crotch Pulling of the Russian Army "Strong in the Outside" or "Reserved"? Was it a strategic blunder, or was it a treacherous attempt?
Admiral Georgi Shpak, the former commander of the Russian airborne troops, told the "Viewpoint" newspaper: The Russian army has no "blitzkrieg" plan, nor does it have the task of capturing Kiev and Odessa, and the Russian army must take into account the lives of civilians. By implication, the Russian army still has to fight a limited war. However, it is clear that the Russian army's strategy of comprehensively attacking "dumplings" in the first stage was not successful, so in the second stage, it was changed to focus on attacking.
The first phase of the Russian siege on three sides
Second, the gains and losses of the first stage of the Russian army
From the perspective of the Russian army, if it is not willing to fight "blitzkrieg", it is impossible.
This modern war and local conflict can be called "harmful to others and unfavorable to oneself" for the Russian and Ukrainian armies. In fact, in addition to the US troops who are fanning the flames behind their backs to ignite the "fisherman's profits", whether it is the attacking Russian army, the defensive Ukrainian army, or the European countries that are roasted on the stove, they are all parties whose interests have been damaged, so if they are unwilling to fight a "blitzkrieg", is it not a grave burning newspaper to fool the ghost?
However, the reason why the Russian army's "half-covered attack is not effective" is that in addition to strategic mistakes and greed for perfection, there is no electronic suppression in tactics, no blockade of communication lines, no encirclement in depth and depth, no overwhelming air superiority, and the city has come late.
In fact, although the Russian army has a million troops and a reserve force of 2 million, there are at least 150,000 hidden front-line troops behind the 250,000 troops of the Ukrainian army. Therefore, the 150,000 people of the Russian army and the Chechen and Wudong militias look like they are blooming everywhere, but in fact they are not fruitful everywhere.
Of course, the Russian army's humanitarian concerns also existed, but the tanks did not play their due role, and the loss of 2700 tanks on both sides did not achieve the strategic purpose. During World War II, the scene of T-34 tanks and Tiger tanks killing all sides did not appear. The Ukrainian army, which is blessed with drones and "javelin" missiles, is somewhat handy in using the law of small soldier group warfare.
But the Russian army also gained, that is, it took Kherson, and it is about to take Marupol, the base camp of the Azov battalion!
Proportion of Russian language in the ukrainian oblasts
Third, the Russian army "figure poor dagger see"
In the first stage, the Russian army stumbled, was the Russian army's eye high and low or the Ukrainian army too cunning?
In fact, the main problem lies in the strategic choice of the Russian army: first, since "the drunkard's intention is not to drink", attacking Odessa and Nikolayev is tantamount to adding fuel to the fire; second, the siege of Kiev, although it has the meaning of "shooting people first to shoot horses, and capturing thieves first to capture the king", is contrary to the statement of not occupying Ukraine; third, even if they are in Udong, it is difficult to take Kharkov and Marupol at the same time.
Marshal Liu Bocheng famously said: Concentrate absolute superiority of troops and annihilate the enemy individually.
This is also the embodiment of the Chairman's strategic thinking and the cornerstone of our army's victories in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, the War of Liberation, and the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea.
However, at the beginning, the lack of strength of the Russian frontal offensive was not like what some people called "boiled frogs", but the Russian army really had some more than enough and insufficient strength, which was reflected in several aspects: insufficient ammunition, especially missiles, insufficient navy, no combat aircraft carriers, insufficient troops and casualties, and insufficient high-tech to cross back to World War II. More importantly, the US military intelligence behind it is very powerful.
During the war, whether it was the Russian, Ukrainian or German troops, they were all manipulated by the us military intelligence.
Therefore, the strategically clear Russian army in the second phase of the offensive is much more rational, firmly taking Kherson, gradually encroaching on Marupol, and then focusing on Donbass: after all, the purpose of the Russian army is to support the independence of the two states of Donetsk and Luhansk.
How long can the Ukrainian army resist?
Fourth, the strategy is set to gain and loss, and the ability is divided into wins and losses
No matter which country's army is a purpose: only by constantly winning battles can it continue to survive.
After entering April, the main force of the Russian army turned to the Donbass region and achieved remarkable results, successively destroying dozens of military facilities of the Ukrainian army, including some command posts, missile depots, fuel depots and combat equipment concentration areas, and many militants of the Yasu battalion of the Ukrainian army were eliminated one after another.
But will the Donbass region be the last main battlefield of the Russo-Ukrainian War?
First of all, the Russian army has always been a bear's mouth once opened, it will never go back empty; second, the Russian army's original intention of returning to "encroachment" from the situation of "whale swallowing" is not benevolence, but forced; third, the russian army shrinks, does not mean that the Ukrainian army also follows the rhythm of the Russian army, and the Ukrainian helicopter's ultra-low altitude long-range bombing of the Russian oil depot is the performance of "going deep behind the enemy's back".
What is not available on the battlefield is also not available at the negotiating table. Therefore, many people think that the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks are just a cover, and the two sides just stop to catch their breath or accumulate strength to change the focus of the offensive. At least in the short term, the Russian and Ukrainian armies have not yet had the intention of giving up and making peace.
The withdrawal of russian troops from Kiev and Chernihiv may have three meanings: the first layer, to send a signal of peace and détente to the outside world; the second layer, to concentrate superior forces to attack the Donbass region; and the third layer, possibly due to the release of water from the Ukrainian reservoir, the north of Kiev cannot attack at all.
The Russians targeted the Donbass region
V. The Dead End and Trend of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Since the Russian side has conducted five rounds of negotiations, why is it said that the Russo-Ukrainian war will not end easily?
The reason is simple: the causes of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the root cause of the failure of many rounds of negotiations lie in the three dead ends of the existence of Russia and Ukraine: first, territorial sovereignty cannot be negotiated; second, Ukraine's security has not been guaranteed; third, the existence of the US military and "NATO".
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict seems to be a "referendum" in which the Russian army protects the "Russians" and sends troops to "protect" the two states of eastern Ukraine.
But in fact, the feud between the Russian and Ukrainian armies was already buried eight years ago during the Crimean dispute. Therefore, no matter who becomes president of Ukraine, it will not recognize "independence" in the face of the world's great disobedience, and from this point of view, negotiations will not solve the fundamental problem.
Since sovereignty has no talk, there is still de-militarization and de-Nazismization to talk about, but the Ukrainian army also has its own worries: without Donenessk and Luhansk in the Donbass region, will there be Kherson, Odessa, and Kharkiv adjacent to Russia and Ukraine?
Historically, the US military has always been insatiable and greedy, but the Russian army is also a land that must be fought for and will not change its true colors.
In summary, it can be preliminarily judged that although Russia and Ukraine have not made substantial progress at the negotiating table, the inflection point of the Russo-Ukrainian war has indeed arrived. The main purpose of the second phase of the Russian offensive was to gradually turn the Donbass region into a second "Crimea".
【Deeply cultivate the history of war, carry forward positive energy, welcome to submit, private messages will be restored】