In the previous article, we analyzed that the Russian army was not enough to carry out a real siege of Ukrainian cities on all fronts in the case of initial strategic failure and insufficient troops. Therefore, in most of the cities on the front, the Russian army is actually engaged in containment and firepower warfare, and the only larger city that is really desperate to attack is Mariopol.
Because in the case of "big goals" are difficult to achieve, the Russian army has to start from the existing strength and at least achieve "small goals". The so-called "small goals" are basically to take the rest of the Territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions.
In the early stages of the battle, the Russian army actually divided the main Ukrainian forces in the two states, forming two parts of the Mariupol region and the core area of Donbass.
Then if the Russian army wants to gather all its strength to besiege the core area of Donbass, it must first take Mariupol.
The officially declared operational intentions of the Russian army after that were basically the same, and even in order to be able to concentrate more troops and resources, a major retreat was also carried out in the direction of Kiev, and the United States researched and evaluated that this was the russian army's redeployment of troops. Of course, the focus of deployment is naturally around the Donbass.
Obviously, the focus of the Russian army's next phase of operations will be completely shifted to the Donbass Theater of Operations (in fact, the intensity of the war here has always been the highest since the beginning of the war, but kiev and other large cities are more eye-catching). And before the arrival of this important node on May 9, if the Russian army did not make considerable progress, it would not be very good.
Of course, when it comes to progress, the siege of Mariupol has to be talked about again.
We know that since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, a very high degree of popularity has been formed on the Internet, and even those who are engaged in law, economy, literature, and art have come to talk about military issues, and it can be said that many friends are very concerned about the development of the war situation.
This is really very different from the previous years of the Syrian war, the Yemen war, and the Syrian-Iranian war against the IS war.
Because there has not been a high-level large-scale conventional war for many years, and many netizens are also newly concerned about the topic of war, there will be many places that do not understand.
For example, there are those who understand BTG as a heavy army group, there are those who make up for the progress of the war without even reading the war reports and maps, and there are those who do not know Zhang Guanli Dai and so on.
Therefore, some of the situations that appeared in the war are more difficult for many netizens to understand.
For example, this Mariupol siege is like this, netizens will feel that it is not a city, how can it not be fought for so long? I feel that I have been fighting here since the beginning of the war, how come I am still fighting now? What the hell is going on here?
Let's talk about the Mariupol operation.
First of all, the operation of Mariupol belongs to the urban warfare of the magnitude of 500,000 people, and the urban warfare is the main battlefield of the war in recent years, and it is also the difficulty of the operation.
Because if the two warring sides engage in field battles, it is basically a duel between armies, but if the battlefield is placed in the city, then it inevitably involves the destruction of the city and the casualties of civilians.
The urban warfare that has taken place since the beginning of this century would have been fought more smoothly unless the defenders had voluntarily withdrawn from the city or had no will to fight. As long as they choose to stick to the city, then this battle will be more anxious.
Typical examples such as the US military attack on Iraq, the capital Baghdad can be taken relatively easily, mainly because the Iraqi garrison itself collapsed. For example, in 2021, when the Taliban fight Kabul, the US military does not want to fight for a long time, the Argentine government army has completely disintegrated, and even the withdrawal of the US military must negotiate an agreement with the Taliban, so that the big city will naturally change hands.
If there is resolute resistance, the Second Battle of Fallujah is another example. In this battle, the U.S. army used absolute superiority in troop strength and firepower against the defenders, but it was not good in terms of time and casualties.
In recent years, the urban warfare in Aleppo and the urban warfare in Mosul are also typical examples of long-term, high casualties and high degree of destruction.
Let's go back to this Russo-Ukrainian war, such as Kherson and Berdyansk, in the case that the Ukrainian army did not choose to hold on, the Russian army basically took it without bloodshed. Of course, in the early strategy of the Russian army, it may envision taking more Ukrainian cities in this way.
But we also know that in Kiev, Chernihiv, Samui, Kharkiv and other places, the Ukrainian army has chosen to resolutely resist, while the Russian army has seen many light troops rushing and being wiped out.
When it is determined that the defenders of these cities choose to hold on, then they need to fight with more troops, more casualties, and a longer time. The current Russian army obviously does not have this cost, so it can only retreat to diversion and firepower warfare, and the cities and territories that must really be taken are still in the Donbass region.
Mariupol is the second largest city in donetsk Oblast, bordering the Sea of Azov, and the steel industry is well developed. The total economic output of donetsk oblast before the war was one of the five western Ukrainian oblasts, and Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast was one of the troikas.
In the 2014 Ukrainian Civil War, the city was taken by the Ukrainian army and the Azov battalion, and became the base camp of the Ukrainian army on the southern front of the Donbass Theater. Therefore, after the war between Russia and Ukraine, Mariupol naturally became the primary target.
The Russian army in this direction has both army units and black sea fleet land combat units, as well as the main force of the Donetsk armed forces and Chechen troops, with tens of thousands of troops, which can be said to be a real coalition force, and it is also one of the heavy military groups on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.
After the war, donetsk forces attacked westward, and the Eastern Route Army, which was divided from the Russian army north of Crimea, attacked eastward, and the two forces penetrated the Ukrainian defense line in the south of Donbass and encircled Mariupol. As for the seaward side of Macheng, the Russian Navy is also in absolute control.
Therefore, the so-called "dumplings", in fact, Mariupol is the real sense of the package success.
The Ukrainian troops here are roughly the 36th Naval Infantry Brigade, the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center, the 12th Brigade of the National Guard, the main force of the Azov Battalion (the actual strength is much greater than the battalion, commonly known as this), and the 57th Motor Rifle Brigade, the Border Guard And the Police, the Territorial Defense Force, etc., which were contracted after the start of the war, and the pre-war assessment generally believes that there are 15,000 people.
Of course, this number of troops is only an estimate, it may be more (there is a factor of catching ding), it may be less (shortage and flight factors), but at least the size of the force of more than 10,000 people is basically no problem.
In a city with a population of 500,000, there are tens of thousands of defensive troops, which is still quite a lot. Therefore, the relatively large number of troops was one of the hard conditions that the defenders of Mariupol could hold.
Of course, the reason why it is one is that there are other hard conditions.
In terms of fortifications, the city's buildings and factories themselves can be used as a basis, which need not be said. And there are two more points that should be particularly emphasized in Mariupol:
First: Since the recapture of Mariupol in June 2014, the city itself has faced a serious military threat, so the Ukrainian army has built a large number of fortifications while operating it as a base camp on the southern front, and has been operating for 8 years;
Second: As an industrial city in the former Soviet Union, Mariupol has a large number of steel factories, and in the former Soviet Union, important factories are often attached to more complex fortifications, which can also be used for defensive operations after transformation.
At the same time, since it is the base camp for operations on the southern front, Mariupol itself has more weapons, ammunition and other combat equipment, which can meet the needs of a longer period of combat.
Is that enough? Naturally, if the Ukrainian army has no war spirit and no combat strength, then everything will be in vain.
Everyone knows that the defenders of Mariupol included the Azov battalion, which is recognized as a neo-Nazi type of armed force, in fact, this type of arming is more common in the Ukrainian army. In its post-2014 reconstruction, the Ukrainian army itself relied on a large number of nationalist troops.
Such a force had widespread violence in the war in Eastern Ukraine, so it actually had a mortal vendetta against the Donetsk armed forces that had come to attack. How the Azov battalion dealt with the prisoners, needless to emphasize, then at the same time these Ukrainian troops will also worry about being treated similarly after being captured, so they are more tenacious in the spirit of combat, which is certainly not very healthy, but at least ensures that the defenders will not easily disintegrate.
In terms of combat skills, the Ukrainian army has been a bonus of actual combat - rotation training in recent years, the foundation of the Soviet-style army + American training, so the combat strength of its composition is still OK. In the previous joint exercise with NATO, many young soldiers of NATO countries were beaten to pieces.
Therefore, it is not for no reason that the Ukrainian army in Mariupol can hold out for such a long time with almost no foreign aid.
Next, from the perspective of the Russian coalition forces, we will talk about their dilemma in fighting Mariupol.
First of all, the Russian coalition forces have no problems with superiority in strength, logistics, weapons and equipment, and morale. But if there is any difficulty, there really is.
Earlier we mentioned that urban warfare is relatively difficult to fight, and the reason why it is difficult to fight is not that the attacking side does not have the ability to solve the urban defenders, but that it cannot fight so much.
For example, in a building, knowing that there is a fire point of the defenders, the problem is solved by the direct bombardment of large-caliber artillery. But in this way, the whole city will be finished, and the casualties of civilians will be uncountable.
Netizens may think, all to the point of war, will they still care about this?
In fact, this situation is divided into two types, the first is to attack the city of the pure enemy, like the US military, in fact, there is no concern about civilian casualties and the degree of destruction of the city. The statistics are just for the militants; the second situation is that the city is what it needs to fight down, then it cannot be fought too hard.
The situation in Mariupol is the second case, because this is the city of Donetsk Oblast, and it is up to it to end.
So when we look at the battlefield situation in Mariupol, is there a scene of fighter planes and Wuzhi taking turns to bomb? Have there been any large-scale demolitions of heavy artillery? Have there been any cases of naval guns firing close in?
In the defensive areas where the defenders are more concentrated, the use of high-powered weapons can be seen; but in most urban areas, although the traces of war abound and various buildings are damaged, this is obviously different from large-scale demolition operations.
The Russian army actually invested heavy units such as tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and the way of playing was to cover the light infantry with heavy armored troops to clear the building, and the use of heavy artillery was more limited.
In the clearance operation, all the firepower advantage of the coalition forces was greatly reduced, while the defenders could take advantage of the existing fortifications and familiar terrain, while wrapping civilians as shields, bringing the two sides closer to close combat.
Familiar with close-quarters firefights? This is a state that the U.S. military tries to avoid. At the same time, it is also a situation that any army that has the advantage of the system will try to avoid. But Mariupol can only fight like this, and the Azov battalion is not the Iraqi Republican Guard, it will not surrender!
A city of 500,000 people is not very large to us, and the defenders of more than 10,000 people do not seem to have many, but according to this way of playing, it will not only not be fast, but also have heavy casualties.
For example, the Russian side can confirm the death of the Colonel deputy in charge of political work in the Black Sea Fleet, the colonel of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, and other officers of higher ranks; the Donetsk armed forces have suffered more than 2,000 casualties in the last two weeks (including the battle losses in the core area of Donbass).
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the battle of Mariupol has been fought as it is now; at the same time, with the battle of Mariupol unfolding, it is not difficult to understand why the Russian troops on the northern and eastern fronts did not dare to rush to attack the city; the Russian army's recent reduction of troops and the preparation of the combat deployment of the Donbass Ukrainian army can actually be understood.
Because there are still cities such as Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in the core area of Donbass, a Mariupol has been fought like this, and there are still many battles to be fought in the future. In the case of insufficient strength and not weak opponents, they can only take over and fight.
As for when Mariupol will be able to play, it is difficult to say. At present, it can only be said that the positions and strength of the Ukrainian army are constantly being consumed, and it is difficult to obtain replenishment, and it is more and more difficult to hold on to it. As for the rumors that there may be some important people in Ma Cheng, it is best not to guess, or to confirm the information.