Text | Liu Lanchang
As everyone knows, Ma Ying-jeou's "three noes" are the core of his cross-strait policy, and the "three noes" mean "no reunification, no independence, and no force." Now he has a new saying about the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian war, that is, "on the one hand, preparing for war, on the other hand, seeking peace." The author believes that Ma Ying-jeou is very clear that the strength of Taiwan and the mainland is not at all of an equal magnitude, and Taiwan must avoid war and seek peace; unfortunately, before he avoided war by "not independence," the new formulation now is actually "seeking peace by preparing for war." However, what is the difference between this and Tsai Ing-wen's "seeking independence by force"? Opposing "independence" and promoting reunification is the way out for Taiwan's peace.
Ma Ying-jeou recently attended the general meeting of the China Society for Strategic Strategy and said that he would like to draw lessons from the War between Russia and Ukraine to Taiwan.
First, he believes that the opportunity for the United States to send troops is not very large. He held that the US defense policy toward Taiwan is to sell weapons and provide intelligence on the other, but it is unlikely that Taiwan will really dispatch US soldiers to intervene in Taiwan's war. There are many stories of the United States disappointing its allies, from the "Saigon moment" of breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan and withdrawing from Vietnam, the "Kabul moment" of withdrawing from Afghanistan, and then to the "endless history" of "Ukraine today" for more than 70 years.
Second, the Russo-Ukrainian War allowed young people in Taiwan to witness the cruelty and horror of the war for the first time in their lives. Western countries only provide Ukraine with precision weapons, but NATO insists on not sending troops to aid and does not accept Ukraine's proposal to draw a no-fly zone, and Ukrainian President Zelensky has no choice.
Third, the Chinese mainland is 266 times the area of Taiwan, the population is 59 times that of Taiwan, the military strength is the third in the world, and Taiwan is the twenty-first. Ma Ying-jeou pointed out that the gap in comprehensive strength between the two sides of the strait is much larger than the gap between Russia and Ukraine. But if anyone in Taiwan believes in the "blank check" of the United States, Taiwan will probably become the "only loser."
Fourth, Ma Ying-jeou also pointed out in particular that former US Secretary of State Pompeo said big things, he said that "the United States and Taiwan have established diplomatic relations", but why did he not do it during the term of office of the secretary of state, but wait until more than a year after leaving office, and then appeal as a civilian?
Finally, Ma Ying-jeou said the main point: Taiwan should prepare for war on the one hand, and seek peace on the other. It is necessary to make the mainland understand that if it uses troops recklessly, the situation will definitely be worse than that of Russia, and the hatred between the two sides of the strait will be perpetuated.
The author believes that Ma Ying-jeou's judgment that the United States will not send troops should be in line with the facts. In fact, the PLA's shore-based missiles control a range of 2,000 kilometers and effectively set up a "rejection line", and even if the US military has the intention to send troops, it will only be beaten. Ma Ying-jeou's understanding that the war between the two sides of the strait in Taiwan is the "only loser," and it is even more correct. However, he is incorrect in proposing that "on the one hand, preparations for war, on the other hand, peace".
Undoubtedly, in the face of the "nine-in-one" election at the end of the year, Ma Ying-jeou's words have great electoral considerations, and his tone of "seeking peace" is precisely to see the current panic in the face of "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow" that the voices demanding peace on the island of Taiwan have multiplied. Therefore, the KMT's "peace card" in this year's election campaign is very favorable to winning the support of voters. The problem is that a fundamental problem that Ma Ying-jeou avoids is that "Taiwan independence inevitably leads to war." The KMT should lash out at the DPP's various logical causes of Taiwan independence leading to war, so that the voters who choose peace on the island can choose the KMT, but Ma Ying-jeou has uttered the confused logic of "preparing for war on the one hand, and seeking peace on the other."
In fact, in 2008, Ma Ying-jeou put forward the three-nos policy of "no reunification, no independence, no force", as his slogan for running for the throne, and the focus was also on using "no force" to win over the island's voters who demanded peace. Another strategic consideration of this slogan is to avoid the "struggle for reunification and independence" to win over the middle voters, when Wu Dunyi specifically suggested that Ma Ying-jeou put "non-reunification" in the front.
In fact, "no reunification, no independence" is exactly what Ma Ying-jeou, Wu Dunyi, and other bigwigs who control the Kuomintang have said in their hearts. This is also the historical root of the KMT's transformation into the DPP's "B Team."
At that time, Ma Ying-jeou's mistake was that he was clear that "Taiwan independence will inevitably lead to war," but he avoided it; "disunity will inevitably slide toward Taiwan independence, and Taiwan independence will lead to the end of the war." He may not have been able to understand it clearly. Therefore, Ma Ying-jeou used the vague slogan of "no reunification, no independence, no force", which is ambiguous and practical to fool people.
However, at that time, Ma Ying-jeou was still "not independent", but now Ma Ying-jeou did not even say "not independent", directly saying "on the one hand, preparing for war, on the other hand, seeking peace". How does this make sense?
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