March 17 at 24:00
A new round of domestic refined oil products
The price adjustment window will open
At that time, it may be "six consecutive rises"
According to the tracking and calculation of a number of market institutions, the expected increase in the range may be the largest increase since the new price adjustment mechanism in 2016. At that time, the price of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country will rise to about 8.6 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline will basically enter the "9 yuan era". Taking an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters as an example, filling up a tank of fuel will cost about 32 yuan more than before.
After the introduction of energy sanctions or restrictions on Russia in Europe and the United States, as of the close of trading on March 8, brent crude oil futures rushed to a high of $127.98 / barrel. In order to alleviate the pressure on rising oil prices, on the 9th, Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, said that if necessary, members of the International Energy Agency can release more oil reserves. Previously, the International Energy Agency had announced that it would release 60 million barrels of oil reserves. In addition, the market believes that high oil prices are expected to incentivize other oil producers to increase supply and curb oil demand, and international oil prices have subsequently pulled back significantly, and as of the close of trading on March 15, Brent crude oil futures prices fell to $99.91 / barrel, down about 22% from the 8th.
According to the latest monthly report released by OPEC on the 15th, in February, OPEC crude oil production reached 28.473 million barrels / day, an increase of 440,000 barrels / day, significantly higher than the 150,000 barrels / day in January.
In this pricing cycle, the rate of change of the package of crude oil continues to run in a positive and wide range, and the amplitude first expands and then contracts. Data released by the Xinhua News Agency's oil price system on March 16 showed that the average price change rate of the package of crude oil on March 15 was 14.92%. According to this calculation, it is temporarily expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be raised by about 750 yuan per ton at 24:00 on March 17.
Figure: The average price change rate of a package of crude oil released by the Xinhua News Agency Oil Price System since the beginning of the cycle
Source: China Natural Gas Information Terminal (E-Gas System)
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic retail price limit of refined oil products has undergone 4 price adjustment windows, 4 times are raised, and the cumulative price of domestic gasoline and diesel has increased by 1125 yuan and 1085 yuan per ton respectively.
In the wholesale market, the high level of international oil prices and the sharp increase in refined oil prices have formed a strong boost to the market, promoting the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel to rise significantly, but with the retracement of international oil prices, the trend of wholesale markets in recent days has tended to be stable. According to the wholesale prices of China's gasoline and diesel jointly released by China Economic Information Service, China Petroleum Economic and Technical Research Institute and Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, on March 15, the average wholesale prices of 92# gasoline and diesel (including low freezing point) in the country were 10256 yuan / ton and 8651 yuan / ton, respectively, up 416 yuan / ton and 281 yuan / ton from March 4 (the first working day after the last round of price adjustments).
After the sharp fluctuations in oil prices, the current market judgment on the future market of oil prices is quite divergent. Overall, the tight supply pattern of the oil market is difficult to reverse in the short term, which will continue to support oil prices, and if geopolitical risks are alleviated, international oil prices may fall further, but will still be at a relatively high level.
Many car owners rushed to refuel before the price increase:
Hangzhou "Huahua" ms. queued for 15 minutes to successfully fill up the oil, she said: "Never said this sentence so proudly: 95 full! ”
Mr. Wang sent a circle of friends: "What happened?" The gas station was full. ”
There was a queue of about 10 cars at the gas station intersection.
| Source: Xinhua News Agency, Daily Economic News, Qianjiang Evening News, Hubei Daily
| Edit: Ye Xiao
| Disclaimer: Copyright belongs to the original author If there is any infringement, please contact to delete
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