In order to meet the needs of higher energy density batteries, silicon-based anodes have entered the industrial vision. Some manufacturers have begun to lay out silicon-based anode production projects, and the first manufacturers to ship and be accepted by the market can enjoy a high gross profit of about 50%, but in the long run, large-scale applications depend on the cost performance improvement brought about by the cost reduction.
Some insiders expect that in 2023, the silicon-based anode will begin to increase, and this year has clearly felt that the demand has crossed the platform period. The silicon-based anode is the direct beneficiary of the 4680 battery, and the amount of time is also closely followed by the promotion rhythm of such batteries. At present, Tesla's self-built production line has been small-scale mass production of 4680 batteries, Panasonic, LG and other overseas manufacturers gradually started, and domestic manufacturers also followed suit to expand the layout.
The pace of industrialization is approaching
The silicon-based anode is regarded as the next generation of lithium battery anode material, and it is about to explode after many years of dormancy. Securities Times · e company reporter noted that the current number of manufacturers that can mass-produce silicon-based anode is not much, the competition pattern is relatively concentrated, some mass production manufacturers have begun a new round of expansion, and several companies are in the pilot and sample stage.
Bertry is the first company in China to ship silicon-based anodes in bulk. Ren Jianguo, general manager of Beiterui, told the Securities Times e company reporter that the company currently has a silicon-based anode production capacity of 3,000 tons, mainly used in power tools and power batteries and other fields, of which power battery consumption accounts for about 60% to 70%.
Bertray's expansion plan is also the largest of the disclosed projects in the industry. According to the announcement, Bertrui recently reached an agreement with Shenzhen Guangming District to invest 5 billion yuan to build a project with an annual output of 40,000 tons of silicon-based anode materials, and the first phase of 15,000 tons will be completed and put into operation before the end of December 2023.
A number of traditional anode material factories have begun to lay out the silicon-based anode. According to the announcements of various companies, Shanshan shares have achieved batch supply, mainly used in 3C and other fields, power batteries have passed the multi-round evaluation of mainstream car companies; Putailai has built a silicon-based anode pilot line in Jiangxi and Liyang, which has passed some customer certification; Xiangfenghua silicon-based anode has the basic conditions for industrialization.
This field has also attracted a number of cross-border manufacturers, including Shi Dashenghua, who specializes in electrolyte materials. Securities Times E company reporter learned in the field investigation of Dongying factory that The 1,000-ton silicon-based anode of Shida Shenghua Phase I has entered the trial production stage and is expected to be shipped in batches in the second half of this year. In addition, the company has also planned a 20,000-ton silicon-based anode production line with a total investment of 730 million yuan, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2023.
Silicon Treasure Technology, which specializes in silicone materials, has also laid out a silicon carbon anode material for 10,000 tons/year lithium batteries, and the material has been evaluated by several battery manufacturers and achieved small batch supply. In addition, power battery manufacturer Guoxuan Hi-Tech also has a 5,000 tons / year silicon-based anode material project under construction.
At present, the negative electrode material is still based on graphite as the mainstream, but the demand for silicon-based anode has increased significantly in the past two years. According to high-tech lithium battery data, China's silicon carbon anode shipments in 2020 are only 0.6 million tons, accounting for 2% of the overall proportion of lithium battery anode materials. The demand for silicon-based anode materials is expected to be 22,000 tons in 2022, with a compound growth rate of 80% from 2019 to 2022.
CICC clearly judged in a recent research report that 2022 is expected to become the first year of silicon-based anode industrialization. It is estimated that the global demand for silicon-based anodes is expected to reach 200,000 tons in 2025, of which the penetration rate of consumer batteries is expected to reach 50%, corresponding to the demand for about 70,000 tons of silicon-based anodes; the penetration rates in cylindrical and square power batteries will reach 35% and 20% respectively, corresponding to the demand for about 130,000 tons of silicon-based anodes.
The cost of promoting the application needs to be reduced
Before knocking on the door of the market, the silicon-based anode needs to be continuously optimized in terms of performance, and it is also necessary to continuously reduce costs to improve the cost-effective advantage.
Capacity is one of the key indicators to measure the performance of anode materials, and the larger the capacity, the more it helps to increase the energy density of the battery. After decades of development, the specific capacity of the traditional graphite anode has reached 360~365mAh/g, which is very close to the theoretical specific capacity of 372mAh/g, and the improvement space is limited. The silicon-based negative electrode theory has a specific capacity of up to 4200mAh/g, which means that its capacity ceiling is ten times higher than the graphite negative electrode.
On the other hand, the silicon-based negative electrode also has problems such as easy volume expansion of silicon, poor conductivity, and large first charge and discharge losses. Therefore, the performance improvement of the material is actually to find a balance between energy density and stability, and now the silicon-based anode product is to dop silicon and graphite together and use it compositely.
At present, the proportion of silicon doped in mass-produced products is mostly below 10%, and there is a trend of gradual improvement. Mo Ke, the founder of True Lithium Research, told the Securities Times e company reporter that the best silicon doped ratio needs to be determined according to the situation in different fields, such as Panasonic once continuously improved the proportion of silicon, which has been increased to 10% about seven or eight years ago, and later lowered the proportion in order to find a balance point of comprehensive benefits.
Specifically, the silicon-based anode is divided into different types such as silicon carbon anode and silicon oxygen carbon anode, and the silicon carbon anode has high charge and discharge efficiency for the first time, but the expansion is larger, and the silicon oxygen carbon anode is the opposite. For example, The product types of Shida Shenghua are ordinary type and high-efficiency silicon oxygen carbon anode (SiOx-C); Bertry covers two varieties, and the specific capacity of silicon carbon anode in mass production products is between 650 and 1500mAh/g, and the silicon oxygen carbon anode can reach 1600mAh/g.
Since the industrialization of silicon-based anode is still in its infancy, manufacturers who prioritize mass production can enjoy the premium effect. The Securities Times e company reporter learned that the current silicon-based anode market price is 200,000 to 300,000 yuan / ton, compared with 50,000 yuan / ton of mid-end artificial graphite price is 4 to 6 times higher, the gross profit margin of 50%.
However, the silicon-based anode lacks a cost-effective advantage at the existing price, which may affect its application in mainstream models. According to the calculation of CICC Research Report, the high-nickel 811 soft pack battery uses a 450mAh/g silicon-carbon anode, and the energy density of the whole battery can be increased from 280Wh/kg to 295Wh/kg, an increase of about 5%, which is less than the increase in the cost of the negative electrode.
A few models on the market have begun to use silicon-based anode materials. Models such as the Tesla Model 3 incorporate a small amount of silicon into the negative electrode. Recently, GAC Aion LX Plus models were launched, and the 1000-mile version is equipped with sponge silicon anode chip battery technology, which can achieve 1,000 km of endurance.
"This sponge silicon anode plate battery adopts a three-way positive electrode, with a silicon oxide anode material, and the gram capacity and silicon doped ratio are higher than the existing models on the market. Generally speaking, the silicon-based negative electrode is most suitable for use on cylindrical batteries, but we have taken the lead in applying it to square batteries because we have improved the battery material system and introduced the design idea of magazine batteries into the whole package design. Li Jin, senior manager of GAC's E-An Technology Center, told the Securities Times E company reporter.
However, on the whole, the current silicon-based negative electrode of the battery is low in the proportion of silicon, and the advantages of the silicon-based anode have not yet been fully exerted. Some people familiar with anode materials told the Securities Times e company reporter that the silicon-based anode is difficult to bring intuitive profit contributions to manufacturers in the short term, and the incremental space under the compound doping scheme is relatively limited, and it is necessary to wait for a breakthrough in process technology.
"Compared with the consumer field, power battery companies are more sensitive to costs, and recently need to face the pressure of price increases of various raw materials, the current price of silicon-based negative electrodes may be difficult to accept, but after the future technology matures, there will be more companies participating in the competition, and the price will decline accordingly." A lithium battery industry analyst told the Securities Times E company reporter.
Under the high gross profit, material manufacturers actually have considerable room to make profits downstream. Shi Dashenghua calculated in the feasibility report that the sales price of silicon-based anode finished products is expected to be 73,000 yuan / ton, which is close to the price of high-end artificial graphite on the market. Ren Jianguo also believes that the final silicon-based anode cost performance can reach the same level as high-end artificial graphite.
"The silicon-based anode has considerable cost reduction space, because the artificial graphite production energy consumption is relatively high, and the cost of the graphitization link accounts for 50%, and the silicon-based negative electrode can avoid this process." Li Jin said.
It is worth mentioning that the application of silicon-based anodes will also be accompanied by the maturity of a number of supporting materials. In order to overcome expansion, improve conductivity, first charge and discharge efficiency and other properties, batteries using silicon-based anodes need to be combined with conductive agents, binders, lithium supplements and other products. Some manufacturers have planned the project of supporting products, and Shi Dashenghua recently announced that it will invest 935 million yuan to build a 20,000 tons / year cathode lithium supplement project; invest 318 million yuan to build a 10,000 tons / year new conductive agent project. Silicon Treasure Technology has also planned a 40,000 tons/year special adhesive production base in the silicon-based anode project.
4680 warm wind blowing
At present, the silicon-based anode is mainly used in consumer electronics, power tools and other fields, and the field of power batteries with greater incremental space, especially the upcoming 4680 battery will become a warm air that will change the market.
Tesla first released a 4680 cylindrical battery in 2020, named after a size of 46mm in diameter and 80mm in height. The positive electrode of the battery uses a high-nickel ternary material, with a silicon-based anode, and has a non-polar ear and dry electrode design, which increases the range of the previous generation of 2170 batteries by 16%, the power output by 6 times, the energy by 5 times, and the cost will also be reduced by 14%. Tesla CEO Musk has bluntly said that this battery will make a $25,000 electric car possible.
At present, the 4680 battery is already on the eve of mass production. Tesla announced feb. 19 that the Fremont plant had produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January and is expected to be the first to be used in the Model Y model in the first quarter of 2022. Based on an estimate of 1,000 batteries per vehicle, 1 million batteries can meet the production of 1,000 Model Ys.
In addition to building its own production line, Tesla also cooperates with suppliers. Both Panasonic and LG New Energy plan to mass-produce 4680 batteries in 2023, Panasonic's factory in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, is introducing two production lines, and LG New Energy has also begun to build a pilot production line.
There are also a number of manufacturers in China that have begun to lay out. Ewell Lithium energy has a technical reserve of 4680, and announced in November 2021 that it will invest in the construction of a 20GWh large cylindrical battery production line for passenger cars in Jingmen, and there is market speculation that its customers are Tesla or BMW. In addition, BAK Battery is also developing the application of full-pole ear large cylindrical batteries, and is expected to launch a mass production standard product in 2022.
In addition, industry information said that CATL planned 8 4680 battery production lines, a total of 12GWh. "The Ningde era is now mainly facing the problem of cost performance, the cost of applying the silicon-based anode is too high, if the energy density can reach 550Wh/kg of battery mass production, it means that the application of the silicon-based anode is mature." A silicon-based anode research and development person told the Securities Times e company reporter.
It should be noted that some domestic 4680 batteries are not completely equivalent to Tesla's process technology. "If it's just a size change, the 4680 battery can be made very quickly, and in the past few years, some 18650 battery factories have tried to ship some electrodeless ear products, but if you integrate a lot of new technologies like Tesla, it is not easy." Mercure said.
Silicon-based anode manufacturers have begun to target power battery customers. Shi Dashenghua said that the company's early technical docking work with domestic head lithium battery companies continues to be carried out, and the R& D personnel of more than 5 companies expressed their willingness to carry out technical joint development and cooperation with the company.
The above-mentioned silicon-based anode developers expect that about a year after the mass production of Tesla 4680, domestic manufacturers can follow. The time point of the silicon-based anode in the field of power batteries is about 2023, when there may be a capacity gap, "Since this year, the head battery factory has begun to interact frequently with the negative electrode manufacturer to understand the progress of material performance improvement." ”
This year's downstream demand is gradually warming up, which is the common feeling of many manufacturers. Ren Jianguo also said that in the past few years, the entire market size was in a platform stage, and this year there were signs of incremental climbing. Domestic has not seen a mature 4680 production line for the time being, and overseas has begun to gradually start, Bertry's silicon-based negative electrode is currently mainly supplying overseas large customers.
In the longer term, the application of silicon-based anodes may not be limited to 4680 batteries. The above lithium battery industry analysts said that in the three battery routes of cylindrical, square and soft packs, the consistency of cylindrical batteries is the strongest, so some more aggressive materials can be used, and the safety factor of soft pack batteries is the lowest, so the most secure materials must be used. If technological improvements can effectively control the expansion coefficient of the silicon-based negative electrode, then in fact, square and soft pack batteries can be used.
In terms of vehicle-side applications, Li Jin said that GAC Aean is trying to use the silicon-based anode for more models, and other companies in the industry also have plans in this regard. In the short term, the silicon-based anode will still be limited to high-end models, but with the reduction of material costs, it is expected to be applied to more mainstream models. (Reporter Mao Kexin)