The United States absolutely did not expect that the economic sanctions against Russia would come so quickly. Recently, some media reported that after Europe and the United States kicked Russia out of the SWIFT system, Russia and India are planning to use the renminbi as a third-party anchor currency to directly carry out bilateral currency trade in order to facilitate trade between the two countries. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is considering using renminbi instead of dollars for some of its oil trade with China.
If India's support for Russia is still the role of traditional bilateral friendship, then Saudi Arabia's tendency to settle oil trade with China in renminbi is entirely an "immune response" to Europe and the United States kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system. To put it bluntly, SWIFT should have been a neutral tool, and banks around the world trusted it and used it, on the one hand, because it appeared early and included many countries, which was more convenient; on the other hand, it was also because of its "neutrality".
Now that Europe and the United States are sanctioning Russia and kicking Russia out of this financial system, it does not matter how "just" the reason is, but it is undeniable that the lie of SWIFT as a "neutral tool" has been punctured. It turns out that it is a tool that is not false, but it is completely under the control and manipulation of the West, so it does not have any "neutrality" at all. This is fatal to a globally used financial instrument.
It's like you buy a smart phone, it looks quite high-tech, but in the real process of use, I found that the manufacturer designed a hidden switch in this mobile phone. If one day you offend him, the manufacturer will remotely let your mobile phone explode, who dares to use this thing? Although the European and American sanctions this time are Russia, this move has made other countries clearly see the danger of this "global financial system" led by Europe and the United States.
Just like the mobile phone produced by a mobile phone manufacturer, after the battery exploded once, although only one person may be really hurt, other people who use the same mobile phone will naturally be worried. Now Saudi Arabia wants to settle its oil trade with China in renminbi, which is a concrete manifestation of this fear. And with the passage of time, the public opinion boom of Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine rendered by the Western media will continue, and more and more countries will react.
This is of course detrimental to the dollar's global hegemony. So, does this mean that the opportunity has come for the renminbi to replace the dollar and become the new world currency? This has to be seen from two angles. First, in the short term, it is unrealistic for the renminbi to replace the dollar and the euro. Because the us dollar and the euro can become the most important settlement currencies in global trade, the most fundamental reason is determined by the economic basis of Europe and the United States.
The GDP of the European Union and the United States accounts for more than 40% of the total global GDP, if you add Japan, South Korea, Canada and other countries, then the Western camp led by Europe and the United States accounts for more than half of the global GDP. Moreover, since these countries are generally developed countries, the share of international trade is relatively large, and the trade of those countries related to them also accounts for a high proportion of global international trade.
This means that if there is a total of $1 trillion in international trade in the world, there will be 6,700 billion related to the West. This economic base determines that the dollar and the euro, as the world's main reserve currencies, and the status of settlement currencies in international trade, will not change in the short term.
However, from a long-term point of view, in the Russian-Ukrainian War, this kind of "hegemony" between Europe and the United States in the global financial system, as well as the divergence of interests between the EU and the United States in the process of sanctioning Russia, will inevitably affect the trust of other countries in the West and the unity of the euro and the dollar itself.
To put it bluntly, with the rise of China, the dominant pattern of Europe and the United States in the global economic system and international trade is gradually changing. Therefore, if China and other developing countries in the world can be more closely united, then in the confrontation with the financial hegemony of Europe and the United States, it is not to say that it is evenly divided, but it can certainly be fought.
So now for China and other developing countries, the biggest obstacle is how to unite against the financial hegemony of Europe and the United States. As for the current move of Europe and the United States to sanction Russia, it is nothing more than forcing other countries to find a "back road" for themselves and reduce their dependence on the global financial order of Europe and the United States represented by the SWIFT system. In addition, the differences between Europe and the United States on this matter also prove that the euro and the dollar are not forever bound together, and they are likely to split.
In a word, in the long run, the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia have exposed that the global financial order dominated by Europe and the United States has a strong colonial nature and is not "neutral" at all, so it will inevitably trigger a crisis of trust. On the basis of this reality, the share of other currencies, led by the renminbi, in international trade settlements is bound to expand. It's just that this expansion is a long-term process and will not be achieved overnight.